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The Role of Luck in Life Success

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Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#131

Post by raleec »

skookumchuck wrote: post #111
raleec wrote: post #94

Apologies in advance but I must confess.. I don't get it. Can someone define luck? -I didn't choose my DNA. -I didn't choose my parents. -I didn't choose my circumstances. -I didn't choose which neural pathways were reinforced based on my experiences. -I didn't choose which environmental factors altered any of my biological systems. -I didn't choose not to die in my sleep every night from an undiagnosed ailment. Remo…

When are you going to stop blaming circumstance, and start looking at what you can do to improve your lot, and do that instead?

That's your perspective.

I've been very lucky in my life.

I was introduced to programming at a young age and found it immensely satisfying.

I've been conditioned to work hard towards my goals, and have seen the benefits therein.

I'm quite happy with my level of success, though I do intend to get much more. I believe that my lucky strokes have and will continue to multiply.

But I also believe that anyone else with my circumstances would have nearly identical results.

There's no "blame" to dispense.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#132

Post by lisper »

kbutler wrote: post #127
skookumchuck wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So put yourself into the right place. There's a reason people move to Silicon Valley, for example. Put the video game console down, turn the TV off, get up and go to where the opportunity is.

Yes, luck is a factor. If you roll once or twice, then say "It's just luck", you're completely right. But if you keep rolling the dice again and again and again, you're eventually going to get a good roll - especially if you can tweak the roll just a bit. Then you say, "Luck is important, but hard work helps, too."

> But if you keep rolling the dice again and again and again, you're eventually going to get a good roll

No, this is a pernicious myth. A lot of people roll again and again and never get a good roll. Rolling the economic dice takes a lot of time. You can reasonably expect to get maybe 10 rolls before you age out. Even if the odds of success on each roll were 1 in 10 you'd still have a LOT of people (about a third actually) never getting a good roll. And the actual odds are considerably worse than 1 in 10.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#133

Post by vladmk »

I agree with this article, but a healthy way to look at for me is multipliers.

Example, success will get you there, but luck is the multiplier.

Example lets say you work super hard and become a millionaire, you run a 2 million dollar company.

I think it's realistic, however your friend with the 20 million dollar company and 200 million dollar company probably didn't work that much harder than you, they just chose better fields and where at the right place at the right time.

Another example non-business wise is genetics. Example: you can work your ass off and be a really good basketball player, you'll have fun, you'll get admiration, but to be an NBA superstar you need a ton of luck involved ie lack of injuries, right coaches, right genetics.

That doesn't mean quit improving as a basketball player or quit that business, it just means try your best and admit luck is a factor.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#134

Post by kbutler »

zouhair wrote: post #117
raleec wrote: post #94

Apologies in advance but I must confess.. I don't get it. Can someone define luck? -I didn't choose my DNA. -I didn't choose my parents. -I didn't choose my circumstances. -I didn't choose which neural pathways were reinforced based on my experiences. -I didn't choose which environmental factors altered any of my biological systems. -I didn't choose not to die in my sleep every night from an undiagnosed ailment. Remo…

Don't be so sure[0] [0]: http://www.radiolab.org/story/91644-is-free-will-really-free...

Did you read the paragraph at the bottom of the page?

"three different universities...did not observe the same results as in the original study....The effect...may have been due...to unconscious cues...or may simply have been due to chance. They are very careful in their language to not discredit the original study but they advise that future researchers be more cautious...

Then the conclusion is "The original study still stands"!?! and deserves "slight skepticism"?

Sorry, I'm going with "outright disbelief" until shown credible evidence otherwise.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#135

Post by phil21 »

psyc wrote: post #66
axiom92 wrote: post #3

I've at times stated that anyone who says that luck isn't important has possibly never had any success in life. There are a lot of things that can go wrong in any pursuit. Hard work shrinks the error bars in the distribution of success but doesn't make them disappear.

Looking back on my life, there are significant successes that were pure luck, and also those that had nothing to do with luck. I'm talking strictly about events here, and not traits. If you want to talk about the luck of having traits, precursors to those traits, and precursors to those traits, then I think that's a totally different conversation. So I'll focus on events. Most of my success is due to being a programm…

> Working hard, networking, making good decisions - that's all just a baseline. Just the price of entry.

This is the truth, and very hard to convey in a balanced manner. I typically have discussions with people who only want to focus on luck as being part of my (or their) success, and I also have the same discussion with folks who want to only focus on the hard work aspect.

I've found the same. Most of my financial success in terms of "getting ahead" you can look back to a short period of time where everything went right for you and you got lucky. What many folks completely discount is how your consistent work ethic put you into those positions to take advantage of, and of course no one can see the 9 other times you were in similar situations and it all went to shit. It's about getting back up the next morning and taking that tiny step forward again.

I find these discussions pretty upsetting most of the time as I can look back growing up (background sounds much like yours) and think of the kids I grew up around. You could have predicted with near 100% success rate which of those kids turned out to be financially successful and which would not. I imagine it's much harder in more wealthy environments where poor work ethic isn't nearly as damaging, but in a more austere environment it was completely obvious. Those that partied and never worked hard in their early teens pretty much universally have shit lives now. Those that applied themselves have various levels of what most would consider financial success. I truly think luck is a far secondary factor for this type of success.

The difference is luck truly was the only major indicator of who in that "successful" group went from "decent salary in a nice job" to "building generational wealth" - that seems very much more random than a baseline of "middle class" success.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#136

Post by skookumchuck »

raleec wrote: post #130
skookumchuck wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Studying improves your odds of success. Video games improve your odds of failure. It's your choice.

My point is: Your experiences taught and reinforced that lesson. It's turtles all the way down.

You are not a slave to your experiences.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#137

Post by frgtpsswrdlame »

skookumchuck wrote: post #136
raleec wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My point is: Your experiences taught and reinforced that lesson. It's turtles all the way down.

You are not a slave to your experiences.

Your experiences is all there is, of course you're a slave to them.

E: Actually I should say there are influences outside of experiences, genetics for example. But you're a slave to those as well.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#138

Post by skookumchuck »

lisper wrote: post #132
kbutler wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, luck is a factor. If you roll once or twice, then say "It's just luck", you're completely right. But if you keep rolling the dice again and again and again, you're eventually going to get a good roll - especially if you can tweak the roll just a bit. Then you say, "Luck is important, but hard work helps, too."

> But if you keep rolling the dice again and again and again, you're eventually going to get a good roll No, this is a pernicious myth. A lot of people roll again and again and never get a good roll. Rolling the economic dice takes a lot of time. You can reasonably expect to get maybe 10 rolls before you age out. Even if the odds of success on each roll were 1 in 10 you'd still have a LOT of people (about a third act…

It's not at all a myth. Donate your video game console to Goodwill, get yourself educated, get out and try, and your odds increase enormously.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#139

Post by skookumchuck »

lisper wrote: post #129
skookumchuck wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So put yourself into the right place. There's a reason people move to Silicon Valley, for example. Put the video game console down, turn the TV off, get up and go to where the opportunity is.

That is easier said than done. The right place is usually only evident in retrospect. A lot of people move to Silicon Valley, work their freakin' asses off for decades, and still don't succeed. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that it's hopeless and that you should just give up and play video games. But I believe that dumb luck is a bigger factor than effort. Luck is necessary, and can be sufficient for success. E…

> But I believe that dumb luck is a bigger factor than effort.

Make no effort, and your odds of failure are 100%. Your odds get better and better as you make smarter choices, put out the effort, and position yourself for success.

> A lot

Yeah, some fail. But most succeed in SV, the proof is in the housing prices.

Re: The Role of Luck in Life Success

#140

Post by golemiprague »

downandout wrote: post #49
antisthenes wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just for clarification, when you mean millionaire, do you mean a positive net worth of $1,000,000 or just having earned $1,000,000 in some arbitrary period of time?

I meant a net worth of at least $1MM.

That's nothing, an average house in most major cities cost more than that. When people talk about millionaires what they mean is someone who has much more than the average, not a middle class household.
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