Earlier quoted context omitted.
Saying they're going to release details at the end of this year is not the same as launching at the end of the year.
This might be the perfect Hacker News comment. It's a shifting of the premise to something which is axiomatically indisputable, but clearly has no relevance to the argument. OP said that self driving cars are 10-15 years away. I observe that the hardware has already been developed and that Tesla anticipates its software being ready within the next 12 months, suggesting that a ten year horizon feels conservative. HN p…
Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses
131–140 of 141 posts
Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses
#132> Uber said it uses generally accepted accounting principles. Revenue includes only the portion Uber takes from fares, except in the case of its carpooling service; the company counts the entire amount of an UberPool fare as revenue. Does this mean Uber technically recognizes more revenue from from a $6 UberPool ride than a $20 UberX ride?
In the car of Pool, Uber hires the driver.
Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses
#133There has never been an above razor thin profit line for fleet vehicle operations. Uber is a subsidized taxi company. They charge people from A TO B and take a cut of the fare. The fares are so low compared to taxis because of this subsidization. The only way they survive as this app form of a taxi is by drastically raising fares. They will be too far behind the driverless car race and crash there as well. Let alone…
Do you have the link to the FT series? I can't find anything on Google.
Part 1: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/11/can-uber-ever-deliver...
Part 2: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/12/can-uber-ever-deliver...
Part 3: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/12/can-uber-ever-deliver...
Part 4: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/12/can-uber-ever-deliver...
Part 5: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2016/12/can-uber-ever-deliver...
Part 6: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/01/can-uber-ever-deliver...
Part 7: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/01/can-uber-ever-deliver...
Part 8: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/02/can-uber-ever-deliver...
Part 9: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2017/03/can-uber-ever-deliver...
Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses
#134“We’re fortunate to have a healthy and growing business" $2.8bn "adjusted net loss" on $6.5bn revenue is healthy?
The naivety on HN is staggering sometimes. Imagine your parents give you a $10 loan to start a lemonade stand. You think you need six years to make them an above market return on their investment of 2x. You're gonna buy cups, lemons, sugar, and water. In the first year you think you're going to spend $3 and make $0. So you have $7 in the bank. In the second year you think you're gonna spend $2, and make $1. So you ha…
If investor money stopped flowing tomorrow and all companies were forced to be cash flow positive to remain solvent, we'll quickly see which emperors have no clothes. These unit economics will continue for every player in this market as long as investors feel it is worth fighting for. Those with better margins will survive and will suffer the least amount of dilution in the process.
When the dust settles Uber is going to be the only company that ever ends up making any money in this market.
Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses
#135Sales growth in commodity product that is loosing money on ever sale? I'll never understand this. Uber won't own the market. There is zero lock-in. If Lyft is cheaper this week, I'm riding Lyft. I sold my car over a year ago and use a mix of ridesharing and rentals for transportation. Uber and Lyft's greatest competition in my life is a small Google product where people pick up people on their daily commute to and fr…
If you look at the primary ways they keep their market it looks closer to a CPG than a technology company in that it's almost 100% brand recognition and sentiment. Totally different long term business model and why they are pushing so hard for driverless cars, because that's more of a platform. I expect that they want to really be an infrastructure player more like Verizon than anything in the very long term where th…
Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses
#136Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ok great. Thanks for going into so much detail. How likely do you think 1 is in the next 15 years (surely less than 100%)? To me, 50% seems generous. How much can Uber's revenue grow with/without 1 (bare in mind they already represent approx 1/4 to 1/5 of global taxi bookings, although I admit this could be undercounted and grow)? Based on this, what happens to Uber's net margin with/without (1). Bare in mind it's cu…
> How likely do you think 1 is in the next 15 years (surely less than 100%)? To me, 50% seems generous. Tesla has the hardware deployed already and announced that the software to enable Tesla Network (which is essentially Uber, without drivers) will be enabled by the end of this calendar year. You think there are 50% odds that one of the other companies ploughing billions of dollars into autonomous driving R&D is goi…
Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses
#137Earlier quoted context omitted.
Drivers are charged a percentage-fee for Uber's share of the ride in UberX. In Uber Pool, the driver is paid by Uber (as opposed to just through Uber) a variable amount that is not as easy for us on the outside to calculate as the percentage model.
And that somehow justifies Uber saying that all UberPool money collected is revenue? Because the math is hard ? This company is like a Russian nesting doll shell game. There's more in each layer and every layer is a distraction.
In the marketplace case this is deceitful because the marketplace owner doesn't really have a way to bring the costs of the product down, so it's much more realistic to only consider their margin as revenue.
In the UberPool case I think there's a reasonable argument to be made that since they are paying drivers a flat fee, but charging users based on dynamic pricing and packing a variable number of people in each vehicle Uber has more flexibility in terms of how it provides the service to customers, the top line number of how much they are charging users is more reasonable. Uber cuts their costs on an UberPool ride in half every time they put two groups in the same car.
You would really want to see the data broken out by category if you were an investor, since mixing the two types in the revenue number is sort of meaningless since we don't know the split, but we're not exactly in a position to demand financials.
Still, I think this data shows a much rosier picture than HN wants to paint about how "Uber is losing money on every ride"/"Selling 2 dollar bills for $1" etc. the 2.8B loss is huge, but when you look at it compared to the $20B bookings number, you can see that they're not significantly subsidizing rides, but rather using their war chest to compete on price. They only need a 15% price increase to become profitable, which shows their prices are in the right ballpark, even if they're not profitable right now.
I do wonder if this is essentially a move to try and compete more effectively for talent that, besides being outraged, may be starting to believe HN about how likely Uber is to fail.
Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses
#138Earlier quoted context omitted.
Citation please? Is there any public information that says Uber is losing money on every sale? I'm honestly curious. In my brief searching, I haven't found much. I'd love it if someone would point me to information on Uber's finances/economics that shows their negative gross margin in developed city markets. My mental model of their finances is heavy fixed costs (~5,000 programmers) and near-zero marginal costs. The…
There have been leaks (from a while back) that show a loss in most markets (but not all). The spending involved is mostly from driver incentives, which takes some form of "paying drivers more than the fare[s they get]", but is often of the form "we will guarantee you make at least $X so long as you're online in that area during this time and accept at least y% of the requests".
Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses
#139Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ok great. Thanks for going into so much detail. How likely do you think 1 is in the next 15 years (surely less than 100%)? To me, 50% seems generous. How much can Uber's revenue grow with/without 1 (bare in mind they already represent approx 1/4 to 1/5 of global taxi bookings, although I admit this could be undercounted and grow)? Based on this, what happens to Uber's net margin with/without (1). Bare in mind it's cu…
> How likely do you think 1 is in the next 15 years (surely less than 100%)? To me, 50% seems generous. Tesla has the hardware deployed already and announced that the software to enable Tesla Network (which is essentially Uber, without drivers) will be enabled by the end of this calendar year. You think there are 50% odds that one of the other companies ploughing billions of dollars into autonomous driving R&D is goi…
In return Tesla will have much more data in a few years.
Re: Uber Says Sales Growth Outpaces Losses
#140Earlier quoted context omitted.
> How likely do you think 1 is in the next 15 years (surely less than 100%)? To me, 50% seems generous. Tesla has the hardware deployed already and announced that the software to enable Tesla Network (which is essentially Uber, without drivers) will be enabled by the end of this calendar year. You think there are 50% odds that one of the other companies ploughing billions of dollars into autonomous driving R&D is goi…
I don't think Tesla can be L5 this year..it would be awesome, and I'd love them to be the first, and I believe that after some time they will have it, but they are just too far behind right now (just look at videos/stats). Waymo still has the best statistics, though their equipment may be more expensive than Tesla's. In return Tesla will have much more data in a few years.
Very happy to concede that it's possible they won't be! But look at the context as I think you're missing the point a little: OP is stating there's a 50% chance that they won't be L5 in the next _fifteen_ years. They're currently forecasting L5 in Q4 17. He's saying that they're going to be 14 years late.