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Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

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Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#131

Post by artursapek »

laurent123456 wrote: post #33
jpeg_hero wrote: post #2

Tesla shorts can't get a break. First a smooth $1B+ capital raise without a stock hiccup and now this.

I didn't short the stock but I can understand why someone would. They are expected to generate over 90% of their value after 2020 [0]. There's the expectation that Elon Musk will definitely deliver, that Tesla market share will not be eaten up by other carmakers when they seriously start releasing electric vehicles. The expectation that electric and not another form of energy, such as hydrogen, will dominate, etc. Th…

> ...that Tesla market share will not be eaten up by other carmakers when they seriously start releasing electric vehicles

Tesla has been around long enough that it can no longer be replaced by a large company that just throws a ton of money and talent at it. They're too far ahead. There's no substitute for the raw amount of time Tesla has spent developing its product.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#132

Post by Digit-Al »

mikeash wrote: post #118
timr wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, the reason GM "doesn't care" about the Volt (I'm exaggerating here; they obviously care a little bit ) is because they're rational: electric cars are not popular with mass-market consumers, and it's far from clear that they're going to become popular. GM is investing in what sells, and right now (i.e. for the last decade or two), that's SUVs and light trucks. Which doesn't bode well for Tesla, at least in t…

EVs are unpopular because cheap ones aren't very good yet. You have to choose between almost unusably short range, or a very high price. Something like the LEAF is affordable, but only useful as a city car. A Model S is a great car, but extremely expensive. The cost is coming down. Chevy is now selling the Bolt, which has pretty good range, for under $40,000. Tesla's Model 3 is coming soon. More will follow. The high…

Here's a couple of questions for those out there with more knowledge of the subject than me. Firstly, how long do you think it will be before there is a thriving second hand market in EVs? Secondly, do EVs currently hold their value better than traditional vehicles?

I think you can only say EVs are a success when a used market is thriving. Many people can't afford new after all.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#133

Post by prolly_a_moron »

timr wrote: post #65
Robotbeat wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The whole point of advertising is to make something popular that isn't already or to maintain popularity for something that would otherwise decline in popularity. As long as all GM is doing is sniping at other electric cars while doing general broad-based advertising of their fossil fuel powered vehicles, they're not lifting a finger to expand the EV market. I wouldn't worry about Tesla, anyway. Tesla has huge brand…

"The whole point of advertising is to make something popular that isn't already or to maintain popularity for something that would otherwise decline in popularity." You can't push on a string. Consumers buy bigger cars when gas prices are low, and more efficient cars when gas prices are high. It's why Toyota (which has built a brand identity around fuel efficiency) does worse when fuel prices go down. Marketing can i…

>But will the demand for electric vehicles justify a valuation on par with General Motors? That's the rub.

Yep. Building cars for the mainstream is a low-margin, capital-intensive business. That doesn't go away because Musk is brilliant.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#134

Post by SEJeff »

artursapek wrote: post #131
laurent123456 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't short the stock but I can understand why someone would. They are expected to generate over 90% of their value after 2020 [0]. There's the expectation that Elon Musk will definitely deliver, that Tesla market share will not be eaten up by other carmakers when they seriously start releasing electric vehicles. The expectation that electric and not another form of energy, such as hydrogen, will dominate, etc. Th…

> ...that Tesla market share will not be eaten up by other carmakers when they seriously start releasing electric vehicles Tesla has been around long enough that it can no longer be replaced by a large company that just throws a ton of money and talent at it. They're too far ahead. There's no substitute for the raw amount of time Tesla has spent developing its product.

Which is often summed up (I'm paraphrasing) from The Mythical Man Month, "No matter how hard you try, nine women can't make a baby in a single month".

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#135

Post by cat199 »

olivermarks wrote: post #100
Eerie wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Much better than the hollow cynicism of your post, though...

"In the last 25 years we have seen the explosion of Musk's empire across the solar system. " - you have to admit that is pretty funny...

you hollow cynic!

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#136

Post by artursapek »

SEJeff wrote: post #134
artursapek wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ...that Tesla market share will not be eaten up by other carmakers when they seriously start releasing electric vehicles Tesla has been around long enough that it can no longer be replaced by a large company that just throws a ton of money and talent at it. They're too far ahead. There's no substitute for the raw amount of time Tesla has spent developing its product.

Which is often summed up (I'm paraphrasing) from The Mythical Man Month, "No matter how hard you try, nine women can't make a baby in a single month".

Exactly! I love this saying.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#137

Post by beamatronic »

mikeash wrote: post #118
timr wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, the reason GM "doesn't care" about the Volt (I'm exaggerating here; they obviously care a little bit ) is because they're rational: electric cars are not popular with mass-market consumers, and it's far from clear that they're going to become popular. GM is investing in what sells, and right now (i.e. for the last decade or two), that's SUVs and light trucks. Which doesn't bode well for Tesla, at least in t…

EVs are unpopular because cheap ones aren't very good yet. You have to choose between almost unusably short range, or a very high price. Something like the LEAF is affordable, but only useful as a city car. A Model S is a great car, but extremely expensive. The cost is coming down. Chevy is now selling the Bolt, which has pretty good range, for under $40,000. Tesla's Model 3 is coming soon. More will follow. The high…

How hot is the market for a used Model S? It seems you can get a decent one for under $50,000. Is this generally regarded as a good deal? I know an "early adopter" who has had a Model S for many years, and I've lost count of the number of times it has left him and his family stranded.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#138

Post by mikeash »

Digit-Al wrote: post #132
mikeash wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EVs are unpopular because cheap ones aren't very good yet. You have to choose between almost unusably short range, or a very high price. Something like the LEAF is affordable, but only useful as a city car. A Model S is a great car, but extremely expensive. The cost is coming down. Chevy is now selling the Bolt, which has pretty good range, for under $40,000. Tesla's Model 3 is coming soon. More will follow. The high…

Here's a couple of questions for those out there with more knowledge of the subject than me. Firstly, how long do you think it will be before there is a thriving second hand market in EVs? Secondly, do EVs currently hold their value better than traditional vehicles? I think you can only say EVs are a success when a used market is thriving. Many people can't afford new after all.

There's a pretty decent market for used Model Ss out there. It's not huge, since Model Ss of sufficient age don't exist in great numbers, but it's not too bad.

I've been looking at cheaper used EVs for a second car. There are lots of used LEAFs out there, some Smart EDs, and a couple of Focus Electrics, which look really nice if you don't mind the short range, but aren't very popular at all. These cars seem to drop in value a lot for the used market. I saw several that were not all that old going for under $10,000.

Teslas seem to retain their value better. I'd guess it's partly because the car is more desirable, and partly because Tesla treats their batteries a lot better, so they can be expected to last longer. The LEAF in particular was known for a while for losing quite a bit of range in just a few years.

As far as how they'll retain their value in the long term, it's hard to say. EVs should lose less value due to things like drivetrain wear, since you don't have a bazillion moving parts in an engine and transmission to go wrong. But they'll lose more value to battery degradation. Much will hinge on how well the batteries age and how much they cost to replace in 10+ years.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#139

Post by mathattack »

laurent123456 wrote: post #33
jpeg_hero wrote: post #2

Tesla shorts can't get a break. First a smooth $1B+ capital raise without a stock hiccup and now this.

I didn't short the stock but I can understand why someone would. They are expected to generate over 90% of their value after 2020 [0]. There's the expectation that Elon Musk will definitely deliver, that Tesla market share will not be eaten up by other carmakers when they seriously start releasing electric vehicles. The expectation that electric and not another form of energy, such as hydrogen, will dominate, etc. Th…

They are expected to generate over 90% of their value after 2020

This is true of many startups, especially in a low rate environment. It's the "Terminal Value" in the calculation that drives value. Of course the Terminal Value also is extremely volatile, and changes a lot to small changes in inputs.

Re: Tencent buys 5% of Tesla

#140

Post by beamatronic »

nwhatt wrote: post #94
spyspy wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> when they seriously start releasing electric vehicles They've been "serious" for a long time. Chevy has been selling the Volt since 2010. If they were going to muscle out Tesla they would have done it by now. And it's not just about technology. Tesla has the customer reputation that companies like GM will never have again.

GM isn't a threat to tesla unless Cadillac starts selling something to compete with the model S. As a Tesla shareholder what keeps me up at night are Mercedes, BMW, and Lexus.

Have you seen the 2016 Cadillac ELR? [ 1 ]

As it turns out, it's already discontinued?

[1] http://www.cadillac.com/legacy-vehicles.html

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