Live data from Hacker News

Twitter Is Expected to Field Bids This Week

wsj.com

131–140 of 249 posts

Re: Twitter Is Expected to Field Bids This Week

#131
post #18

This is a sad outcome, but once upon a time Twitter had a choice: be the defacto messaging backbone for the Internet or compete with Facebook and be a destination website/app. They chose the latter and rewrote their TOS to effectively eliminate 3rd party development on their platform. An entire ecosystem of companies, products and tools was destroyed because Twitter couldn't imagine or articulate the value of powerin…

They became the defacto place for public discussion instead. The focus on 3rd party api's hindered that and would have hurt their growth in that regard maybe? Journalism happens on twitter first, it's where famous people talk to each other, not facebook, yeah?

> They became the defacto place for public discussion instead.

I've always view Twitter as the commerical break and news teasers for the internet. I rarely see good thorough discussions on Twitter especially anything expected to last more than 30 hours of relevance.

Re: Twitter Is Expected to Field Bids This Week

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't make sense until you find an active community around a topic you are truly interested in. The NBA is what sucked me in, and it remains 95% of the reason I used Twitter (the other 5% is for when customer service is unresponsive to my chats or emails)

Facebook = people you (grudgingly) know Twitter = people you want to know

Exactly.

Re: Twitter Is Expected to Field Bids This Week

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We still need the thing that Twitter ought to have been, a public short messaging service. Who is going to step up? What kind of institution could deliver something like that, while remaining open and accountable? A Wikipedia style foundation? My guess is that it needn't be (too) expensive to run, especially if you hand over responsibility for long term storage of the messages to third parties. My PhD (in progress) i…

Maybe it was too early back then to see the value in it, but does anyone remember App.net? Dalton Caldwell (now working at YCombinator) had a plan to build a backbone for developers to build on top off without fear of APIs being taken away from them[0]. The idea came about from this exact topic (Twitter becoming more and more hostile to developers)[1]. [0] http://daltoncaldwell.com/an-audacious-proposal [1] http://da…

I remember App.net with fondness. I was a paying customer and the community was awesome, pretty much entirely troll-free techie types, and I never felt awkward just jumping into a random thread or conversation.

First was the great apps, and the features that continued to roll out for users. Unfortunately it was under appreciated.

Re: Twitter Is Expected to Field Bids This Week

#134
post #14

I hope Twitter doesn't get acquired by Salesforce - that would destroy it.

I have difficulty imagining Disney being any better, so I'm curious to hear an argument for Disney.

From public news sources, I imagine it's the value prop of live streaming sports games -- ESPN is largely owned by Disney, and from what I've heard it's failing as of late.

Issue with Disney from a customer side is censorship.

Re: Twitter Is Expected to Field Bids This Week

#135
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We still need the thing that Twitter ought to have been, a public short messaging service. Who is going to step up? What kind of institution could deliver something like that, while remaining open and accountable? A Wikipedia style foundation? My guess is that it needn't be (too) expensive to run, especially if you hand over responsibility for long term storage of the messages to third parties. My PhD (in progress) i…

This is exactly the problem that XMPP is designed to solve. You pick an XMPP provider who you trust, and you can get cross-provider traffic through XMPP Federation. One of the largest XMPP providers is Google Talk, which lets you hook right into the standard GChat. The problem is precisely that people keep re-inventing the wheel here. We don't need Facebook Chat and all the other deliberately-incompatible protocols t…

Are XMPP messages published for public viewing? That's the use case of Twitter, not private chat.

Re: Twitter Is Expected to Field Bids This Week

#136
Sometimes things just don’t work out. Twitter certainly can’t be blamed for trying all kinds of different ideas, either by putting their own resources to work on them, or just acquiring other companies (Vine, Periscope, and many more - see list here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mergers_and_acquisitio... ).

They have a product that is very valuable to many people, but those people are not enough, and the things Twitter tried just didn’t improve the situation. They could expand and try to compete with Facebook, but that’s not going to work and will alienate their current core users, they could reconsider the 140characters limit (ditto), they could just stick to offering the same service in perpetuity with minor changes here and there, and hope for the best, and that’s what they are doing. They need to expand their users base and by extension increase their profits (more users, more ads served, and there is this whole network effect to consider).

The fact is, potential buyers are aware of that implicit users-base wall Twitter has hit a long time ago, and are probably not interested that much in contributing their own ideas in order to succeed where Twitter’s many leaders in the past failed to do. They should know that significant changes to the product will morph Twitter into something else, it will no longer be Twitter, and like I suggested earlier, Twitter doesn’t stand a real chance as a competitor to Facebook and other emerging/established networks.

I love Twitter, I use it every day and it provides me with a lot of value. I suppose it’d be best for me and others like me if they stay the course, so that we can all use it like we do today, and hope one of their future ideas will work out, all the while they are losing market share, and then eventually, inevitably, agree to a sale. The alternative would be someone else buys it now and Twitter will soon become something, and that will undo the company.

Re: Twitter Is Expected to Field Bids This Week

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Users who are more likely to pay 4.95/month are much more likely to be worth more than 4.95/month in advertising revenue. Given the paucity of people I know who've made a purchasing decision based off of an ad on Twitter, I seriously doubt that.

Few people think they know others that have made purchase decisions based on online ads, yet here we have a hundred billion dollar worldwide online ad industry.

You're putting words in my mouth. I said I didn't know anyone who's made a purchasing decision because of an ad on Twitter. Online ads as a larger entity—that's a completely different story. The vast majority of the online advertising spend which you speak of goes to PPC search, not the 2016 equivalent of banner ads.

Re: Twitter Is Expected to Field Bids This Week

#138
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We still need the thing that Twitter ought to have been, a public short messaging service. Who is going to step up? What kind of institution could deliver something like that, while remaining open and accountable? A Wikipedia style foundation? My guess is that it needn't be (too) expensive to run, especially if you hand over responsibility for long term storage of the messages to third parties. My PhD (in progress) i…

This is exactly the problem that XMPP is designed to solve. You pick an XMPP provider who you trust, and you can get cross-provider traffic through XMPP Federation. One of the largest XMPP providers is Google Talk, which lets you hook right into the standard GChat. The problem is precisely that people keep re-inventing the wheel here. We don't need Facebook Chat and all the other deliberately-incompatible protocols t…

Having looked at this in some detail, my feeling is that no federated solution can work. The reason is that the underlying architecture leaks through to the user experience in unacceptable ways.

As soon as a user has to understand federation - at all - I believe the proposition is dead to most people. For example Diaspora's 'pods' are, I think, fatally confusing. (I think Zuckerberg realised this, which is why he donated money to Diaspora - a project he could see would fail, but might also crowd out other OS alternatives to Facebook.)

For sure, XMPP can be part of the tech solution, in fact I suspect there are really excellent open source tools to address many of the inherent issues (perhaps Apache Cassandra can be Twitter's contribution to democracy) but I think the real problem is a social one.

You need an institution that can credibly promise to provide a platform in the long run and which can also get critical mass in at least one community. I believe the critical mass might well follow if the institution is widely perceived as reliable and legitimate in the way a foundation like Wikimedia is.

I went into some more detail on this in a blogpost: http://jimmytidey.co.uk/blog/building-a-better-twitter/

Re: Twitter Is Expected to Field Bids This Week

#139
post #18

This is a sad outcome, but once upon a time Twitter had a choice: be the defacto messaging backbone for the Internet or compete with Facebook and be a destination website/app. They chose the latter and rewrote their TOS to effectively eliminate 3rd party development on their platform. An entire ecosystem of companies, products and tools was destroyed because Twitter couldn't imagine or articulate the value of powerin…

Eliminating 3rd-party devs was only half the issue, the other half was the lack of velocity. I've been saying for a while now that my cofounder and I add more functionality to our startup every two weeks than Twitter's 4,000 employees add to theirs in an entire year. Now this is obviously an apples-and-oranges comparison for all sorts of reasons, yet all caveats aside I think it's still pretty telling.

Your startup has over 300 million users? Operating at scale is functionality that requires a lot more work than a lot of people sometimes realize.

Re: Twitter Is Expected to Field Bids This Week

#140
post #79
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It still remains unclear to me how letting users opt out of making Twitter $0.55/month by giving Twitter, say, $4.95/month is a bad idea. OK, so the advertising rates go down... so what? Advertising rates are not what a business is trying to optimize, revenue is. Up to this point, the counter to this argument was basically "Well, what Twitter's doing is obviously working for them". But that's not quite as strong as i…

It still remains unclear to me how letting users opt out of making Twitter $0.55/month by giving Twitter, say, $4.95/month is a bad idea. $0.55/month is the mean for the entire userbase. The actual amount for any particular user can be far more or far less (well up to .55 less) than that. Users who are more likely to pay 4.95/month are much more likely to be worth more than 4.95/month in advertising revenue.

>$0.55/month is the mean for the entire userbase.

A good distinction but even if you assume a power-law/Pareto distribution for the revenue per customer, it would be roughly ~$2.20/user/month.

Post reply on HN