I recall a lot of articles like this about J2EE. And then a lot like this about MSFT technologies.
There was an essay pg wrote where he said that Microsoft was Dead (http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html). He didn’t mean dead as in “Dead," he meant dead as in “Nobody is afraid of them any more,” and the generalization of that is that it was no longer relevant.
I think Rails is there. I think Rails is dead. Obviously, not dead as in dead, but dead as in, it is no longer revolutionizing anything. It is no longer making new things possible. People no longer adopt it and discover a productivity dividend they didn’t expect. It no longer swings business decisions (“How can we get this done in three months? What about using Rails? Let’s try it.”)
I think that’s fine. I can quote “A new perspective is worth 80 points of IQ.” I don’t think that’s true of Rails today, but then again, I don’t think that’s what people want from Rails. If people want 80 points of IQ, they’re off looking at Elixir and Phoenix.
Likewise, I can say that “A language that doesn’t change the way you think about programming isn’t worth learning,” but who is learning Ruby and Rails in order to change the way they think about programming? They’re trying to bang out CRUD apps, and they don’t want to think about programming, that’s why they value a stable community with widely adopted “best practices.”
When you have a stable, mature language and framework, you spend more time thinking about your business and less time thinking about programming.
And thus, Rails (and sorry, but Ruby too) is not for people who want 80 points of IQ or to change the way they think about programming. And thus, in the sense of being influential, in the sense of disrupting anything or changing anything Rails is dead.
It has matured. It is mainstream. It is plumbing, it is concrete, it is rebar, it is infrastructure. Necessary and useful. But not something you want to spend a lot of time thinking about, just something you use if it suits your purposes.