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Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#131

Post by branchless »

pi-err wrote: post #67

There's a palpable excitement around Hyperloop and I can't wait to know if this will reshape our world or not. One of the largest problem I can see is not technical. The consensus is that a "standard" Hyperloop track (between 2 cities, 300 to 800km apart) would have a ~1,500 passengers/hour max capacity. High speed rail, such as Eurostar, would be around 10,000 passengers/hour. Even if Hyperloop managed to get built…

I wonder would this reshape our world or just make it a little different.

I don't want to get from Montreal to NY in 40 minutes. Or 10.

I want to be able to live somewhere where I do not have to commute because tech has solved remote working. I don't want them to make me travel further for the same time.

For example were they to build radial hyperloop around NY it's just more of the same drudgery. Only now bigger.

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#132

Post by megakwood »

tptacek wrote: post #10
puranjay wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last I checked, wasn't the project over budget and hitting close to $100Bn in costs? Honestly, even $50Bn sounds like chump change for a project as ambitious as the Hyperloop. Nearly all large scale public infrastructure projects end up costing billions of dollars over estimated costs anyway.

If you're saying that the HSR project is over budget, you're right, but you're not helping the Hyperloop argument. The point is that if the HSR people can't get something done for $X, it's unlikely that Musk can do something even more ambitious for $X/10.

> The point is that if the HSR people can't get something done for $X, it's unlikely that Musk can do something even more ambitious for $X/10

IDK, indeed $X/10 is ambitious but he does have a decent track record with this already. SpaceX is already $X/3 or $X/4 and is on the path to $X/10 with reusable rockets, and it's also more ambitious (rocket reuse, highest payload in the world by 2x, new capsule has powered rocket landing on any surface in the solar system).

In my mind he's earned some benefit of the doubt. Of course, there's still a ton to prove, and the idea sounds looney. You'd also have said that about SpaceX 10 years ago, though.

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#133

Post by martinald »

drzaiusapelord wrote: post #91
pi-err wrote: post #67

There's a palpable excitement around Hyperloop and I can't wait to know if this will reshape our world or not. One of the largest problem I can see is not technical. The consensus is that a "standard" Hyperloop track (between 2 cities, 300 to 800km apart) would have a ~1,500 passengers/hour max capacity. High speed rail, such as Eurostar, would be around 10,000 passengers/hour. Even if Hyperloop managed to get built…

>Maybe the business plan for passenger planes and trains was also that hazy back then? Except flying is fast, safe, and cheap. Our problem is airport design and airport security. Fix those so we get on a plane in 20 minutes instead of two hours and everyone will be happy.

Ryanair takes about 30 minutes to turn a plane around with say 170 seats. It's also a large object that requires spacing to get in and out of the gate.

There's no real way I can see to improve airport design with those constraints.

You can fit maybe 4 platforms each holding 10 car trains in the space of one gate at a train station.

A380s require even more space and take even longer to deplane and board, so I don't think fewer but larger planes would work either.

EG: Atlanta airport does around 100m pax. So does Waterloo station in London. Look at the land take and size of terminals required in each of those cases.

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#134

Post by [deleted] »

dredmorbius wrote: post #126

No, it's not. There's also the Vactrain concept. Several variants were pursued from 1914 on, with Robert Salter of RAND writing a couple of proposals in the 1970s. The idea's not new, has been seriously explored previously, and has been rejected or failed on technical, cost, political, practical, and economic grounds. Some forms of local or highly-dedicated application, possibly . But for general use, no. https://en.…

[deleted]

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#135

Post by martinald »

S4M wrote: post #79
pi-err wrote: post #67

There's a palpable excitement around Hyperloop and I can't wait to know if this will reshape our world or not. One of the largest problem I can see is not technical. The consensus is that a "standard" Hyperloop track (between 2 cities, 300 to 800km apart) would have a ~1,500 passengers/hour max capacity. High speed rail, such as Eurostar, would be around 10,000 passengers/hour. Even if Hyperloop managed to get built…

> High speed rail, such as Eurostar, would be around 10,000 passengers/hour. How is that remotely true? There is one Eurostar approximately every 30 minutes (looking at the departures from London [0], it seems that there are 32 Eurostar leaving London every day), and I seriously doubt one train can carry 5000 passengers (I would say about 500 passengers), so your approximation is completely off (even taking into acco…

Yes, but you also have loads of Eurotunnel (car and truck carrying trains) and Southeastern High Speed (non-international) trains on those tracks.

Add the capacity of those in.

Say 3x Eurostar, 5x southeastern hsr and 4x eurotunnel.

The new e320 trains have 900 passenger capacity (could be more with less first class, so let's call it 1000). With 12x departures per hour that's 12,000, and there would be more spare capacity left over because there wouldn't be local and express trains mixed together which kills capacity.

I think you could easily do 15k p/h on Eurostar + related infrastructure. Maybe more if you used TGV Duplex double decker trains.

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#136

Post by _Codemonkeyism »

dredmorbius wrote: post #126

No, it's not. There's also the Vactrain concept. Several variants were pursued from 1914 on, with Robert Salter of RAND writing a couple of proposals in the 1970s. The idea's not new, has been seriously explored previously, and has been rejected or failed on technical, cost, political, practical, and economic grounds. Some forms of local or highly-dedicated application, possibly . But for general use, no. https://en.…

Musk plan:

1. Announce Hyperloop to the world

2. Let someone else build it with tubes

3. Go to Mars

4. Use everything people have built - and went bankrupt - in the thin atmosphere on Mars with success without expensive tubes.

Now the SpaceX plans, the Mars plans and Hyperloop come together.

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#137

Post by tptacek »

megakwood wrote: post #132
tptacek wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're saying that the HSR project is over budget, you're right, but you're not helping the Hyperloop argument. The point is that if the HSR people can't get something done for $X, it's unlikely that Musk can do something even more ambitious for $X/10.

> The point is that if the HSR people can't get something done for $X, it's unlikely that Musk can do something even more ambitious for $X/10 IDK, indeed $X/10 is ambitious but he does have a decent track record with this already. SpaceX is already $X/3 or $X/4 and is on the path to $X/10 with reusable rockets, and it's also more ambitious (rocket reuse, highest payload in the world by 2x, new capsule has powered roc…

Can he make my car get 10X the mileage first? Or my wireless have 10X the range? Argumentum ad Musk doesn't seem like a particularly powerful way to make a point.

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#138

Post by ck2 »

shawabawa3 wrote: post #55
ck2 wrote: post #42

Just imagine the TSA line for the hyperloop. You'll have to arrive days ahead of time.

Why? Wouldn't it be more like a train than a plane? A terrorist would only be able to kill ~28 people at a time (1 pod), compared to >200 for a plane

I want to point out you are trying to use logic to argue about the TSA

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#139

Post by kumarski »

shawabawa3 wrote: post #5

> Except it is really, really expensive. > Mr Musk says the cost of building the route would be in the region of $6bn (£4.1bn), an estimate most agree is extremely conservative. I'm pretty sure that should say "extremely optimistic". Musk's estimate of $6bn is over 10x cheaper than the high speed train line cost for the same route

The golden gate bridge costed about 1.5 Billion dollars when it was built.

$6 Billion is something that I think many civil engineers would consider to be a dubious figure, even as a first estimate. I'm sure Musk is cognizant of this.

Re: Is Hyperloop the future of travel?

#140

Post by mulmen »

bobcostas55 wrote: post #49
tptacek wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're saying that the HSR project is over budget, you're right, but you're not helping the Hyperloop argument. The point is that if the HSR people can't get something done for $X, it's unlikely that Musk can do something even more ambitious for $X/10.

Isn't that exactly what SpaceX did?

Musk himself didn't expect SpaceX to succeed. It was one launch away from complete failure. You're essentially making the argument "If NASA can put a man on the moon why do I still have to buy toothpaste?"

SpaceX has and continues to do amazing things, that doesn't mean suddenly everything we want is feasible.

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