Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game • Hacker News Board

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#131

Post by rokhayakebe » Wed, Feb 03, 2016, 10:56 PM UTC

InvisibleCities wrote: post #28

Dropbox has the same problem a lot of the moderately successful unicorns have; it's a good product managed by smart people that would be much better off as a right-sized stable lifestyle business a la 37 Signals / Basecamp than as an attempt at a world-beating massive-growth juggernaut like Google or Facebook. Unfortunately for them (and Evernote, and a whole host of others), once you've signed that deal for the huge…

Is there a significant difference between running a 1000-employee business vs. a 50 people company going after the same opportunity?

I like a lifestyle business, however if you can clearly go for a $10B instead of $30M while spending the same 10 hours at work and surrounding yourself with 10 times the amount of smart people, then why not.

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#132

Post by paulddraper » Wed, Feb 03, 2016, 11:02 PM UTC

gerbilly wrote: post #107

tholmes wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Companies like that don't usually hire 600 people in 12 months, though. Buuut I guess they could. I guess it just kind of looks like the explosive hiring you see sometimes when a company has projected huge growth but then falls flat and realizes it has way too many employees :(

>Companies like that don't usually hire 600 people in 12 months, though. Maybe, are those 600 people there to fight fires and work on tickets, or adding product features?

Either they have a huge growth in number of fires, tickets, or features. None of those fit your image.

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#133

Post by product50 » Wed, Feb 03, 2016, 11:07 PM UTC

subdane wrote: post #102

malchow wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if -- hold your breath! -- Dropbox is simply a medium-sized, privately held, profit-generating company that will end up satisfying a certain customer segment and paying dividends to investors? The horror!

Their investors will revolt. Their investors need 10X returns in the next couple years to satisfy their fund's existence to their LPs. Funds need a few big wins like Hollywood studios need a couple blockbusters every year. Dropbox's investors are counting on them being a blockbuster. Dropbox's private valuation is an order of magnitude higher than Box's public valuation. And Box has a bigger sales team, more revenue,…

Not true. Investors probably have preferential shares and liquidity preferences which will safeguard their investments regardless. If it is indeed a small/medium size business, then the current $10B valuation is totally out of whack, and guess who gets screwed in the end - yep, employees..

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#134

Post by rokhayakebe » Wed, Feb 03, 2016, 11:08 PM UTC

hspak wrote: post #13

Only reason I still use Dropbox is because 1password integrates so nicely with it.

Now imagine there are many other people who have this one other reason they still use XYZ. That's how many companies stay in business. I worked at a company where customers would call angrily and shout "The only reason I am still with you guys is because of the designs you guys have, but your service sucks, blah, blah, blah...," and this conversation usually ended with "OK, 4125-5623-8451-XXX...Expiration Date XX-YY... OK, Thank you!"

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#135

Post by nassirkhan » Wed, Feb 03, 2016, 11:16 PM UTC

Completely commoditized service with a few core parterships scattered here and there. Not able to take on the better capitalized players i.e Microsoft, Google, Apple, heck even facebook. Long term odds are not great, unless they merge with a complete ecosystem player like the above

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#136

Post by TranquilMarmot » Wed, Feb 03, 2016, 11:20 PM UTC

mangeletti wrote: post #98

shasta wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I expect they're going to branch out into physical storage. Prediction: by 2020, there will be thousands of DropBox locations where you can rent space ranging from a small locker to a large garage. If they're smart, they'll start in rural areas.

Interesting; what made you think of this? Also, will I be able to sync my locker with my desk drawer? :)

I know you're joking about syncing but once my teleportation startup finished its series A....

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#137

Post by dominotw » Wed, Feb 03, 2016, 11:21 PM UTC

malchow wrote: post #79

zer0defex wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nail on the head right here. The only thing Dropbox has these days is consumer confidence in it's syncing process. Beyond that, they trail every competitor feature-wise and frankly, they are succeeding despite their management, not because of it. Recent product enhancements have been, let's be honest, mediocre at best across the board and show no signs of that changing anytime soon. They exist now solely due to brand…

What if -- hold your breath! -- Dropbox is simply a medium-sized, privately held, profit-generating company that will end up satisfying a certain customer segment and paying dividends to investors? The horror!

>Dropbox is simply a medium-sized, privately held, profit-generating company that will end up satisfying a certain customer segment and paying dividends to investors? The horror! reply

how well did that work out for basecamp?

They could have been the next slack if they had not stuck to their stupid philosophy of staying small.

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#138

Post by Lazare » Wed, Feb 03, 2016, 11:22 PM UTC

Spooky23 wrote: post #68

> Dropbox is not laying off workers or shrinking; it hired nearly 500 people last year, 75 since the start of this year, and it plans to soon move into a sprawling, custom-designed office building for which it has signed a long-term lease. Honest question: WTF are they doing?

Not working on Mailbox. Still bitter about them cutting that product.

But seriously, it's a bit odd. Dropbox's product seems fairly mature. Are these sales staff, or developers, or...?

Reading between the lines, it sounds like Dropbox is going all out to build up a sales team so they can be more like Box, and I imagine the bulk of those new hires were picked up for their skills in cold calling, not coding.

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#139

Post by CPLX » Wed, Feb 03, 2016, 11:28 PM UTC

rokhayakebe wrote: post #127

subdane wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their investors will revolt. Their investors need 10X returns in the next couple years to satisfy their fund's existence to their LPs. Funds need a few big wins like Hollywood studios need a couple blockbusters every year. Dropbox's investors are counting on them being a blockbuster. Dropbox's private valuation is an order of magnitude higher than Box's public valuation. And Box has a bigger sales team, more revenue,…

Not every investor is looking for a 10X. DB raised 1.17B, with 1.1 of those in the last three rounds (according to Crunchbase). The last three rounds were 250M,350M, and 500M. A round was 6M. Say A round wanted 100x. B round 10X. C round 7x. D round 5x. That will bring the total expected return to around 8B. However I am sure C and D would not mind a 3X or 2X, while B would probably settled happily for a 5X.

Now add the implications of liquidation preferences (presumably) to the math and you'll see things get a lot more challenging.

Re: Dropbox May Not Be LeBron James, but Is Still in the Game

#140

Post by x1024 » Wed, Feb 03, 2016, 11:41 PM UTC

vlucas wrote: post #126

I really don't understand all the negative Dropbox sentiment these days. Who cares if the investors aren't getting a 10x return? How does that materially affect you as a customer? Why are you even cheering for that anyways? I am a very happy paying Dropbox customer. It's a solid product that does the job very well and isn't stuffed with a bunch of other useless features I don't need. It's pretty much perfect.

Companies that don't satisfy their investors' expectations... they often resort to moves of desperation. And those moves are more often than not anti-consumer and even anti-business.