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At Theranos, Many Strategies and Snags

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Re: At Theranos, Many Strategies and Snags

#131
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is a common, romantic view of how science works - but it is only compatible with reality on a 30-50 year timescale, and probably only because of survivor bias. The science of Dan Shchetman, J. Robin Warren, Barbara McClintock and many others spoke for itself, and for a long time "science" essentially didn't listen. I put "science" in quotes because "science" doesn't speak or listen - scientists do - and the scient…

I recognize your point in showing scientists whose data were initially discounted. The Theranos case is different, however, as they have not attempted to publish their methods. If they had tried and been rejected, it might begin to be fair to compare them to the distinguished researchers you mention. > no doctor will recommend the single most effective treatment for type 2 diabetes early in the disease How do you kno…

> If they had tried and been rejected, it might begin to be fair to compare them to the distinguished researchers you mention.

I might have been misunderstood. I am not defending Theranos or claiming they deserve any accolade or even sympathy. I am just pointing out that the romantic view that "science triumphs" is not, historically, supported by evidence on time scales shorter than a few decades. As most people's careers -- scientists included -- are on that time scale, it is a bad idea to assume that "science triumph" for any specific person or company.

> How do you know this is true?

I've been following these issues for a while. To borrow Gary Taub's analogy - the guides ("eat this much or that much, mostly carbs, low fat, moderate protein") are similar to an advice about how to make a nightclub popular: "get more people in". Yes, if you manage to do that consistently and with sustainable effort, then everything will be fine - yet the compliance rates are ridiculously low (as your link points out). But now we have the people, rather than doctors, to blame for non-compliant behavior, so the ADA and medical institution is not to blame.

However, there are studies (no time to look for refs right now, sorry), showing that people on low-carb, high-fat, medium protein (i.e. "keto" style) have a much, much higher compliance rate, and much better outcomes (in term of controlling blood sugar and reversing type 2) -- yet the recommended ADA (IIRC, can't find it right now) is 60% carb, 30% protein, 10% fat. That's high fat, mind you - not high protein.

Re: At Theranos, Many Strategies and Snags

#132
post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well that's all very moral, but what Theranos is doing is mostly engineering. So while "hype the fuck out of it, raise big money, and fake it 'till you make it" might feel all icky, it's not a unique plan. Will we be saying the same things about Palantir? Maybe, maybe not. There's not that much difference between Palantir and Theranos. What has Palantir got that others don't? Answer: The ability to raise money at inc…

Palantir is not making binary claims which can be proven right or wrong. Palantir is making tools which can be used and interpreted different ways. They are much more like vitamins.

This is a very important point in favor of Palantir. While there is much to be said for the placebo effect in medicine, Palantir's customers can more readily convince themselves Palantir works. On the other hand, you've either got herpes or you don't.

Re: At Theranos, Many Strategies and Snags

#133
post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Holmes worked in the field with USAID missions in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Egypt, Yemen, Ghana, Haiti, Liberia, Kenya, and Ethiopia > Holmes served in the U.S. Army, Second Lieutenant, Civil Affairs, receiving the U.S. Army Soldier’s Medal for Heroism. Want to guess who he really works for?

It seems unlikely that a covert operative would take job as CFO of the EPA, but what do I know.

Maybe they'd do it because it's a good cover (e.g., you find it unlikely)?

Re: At Theranos, Many Strategies and Snags

#134
post #9

I like how Holmes' recollection of meetings is always different than the other attendees. Only one machine had an error message, not all three. She didn't abruptly walk out of the meeting. She didn't refuse to answer a question due to "trade secrets". And so on.

Every article I read about this company sounds like a recap of Rashomon. No two participants ever describe the same events.

Must be some sort of a quantum effect. All that future tech they are working with... (actualy, would be an interesting idea for a movie)
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