Tesla is a Battery Company • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla is a Battery Company

#121

Post by SuperChihuahua » Thu, Apr 02, 2015, 1:31 PM UTC

PinguTS wrote: post #106

happertiger wrote: post #11

If Tesla executes, they are going to be the leading company in a number of industries, of which battery technology and manufacturing is one of them. They are also leaders in direct sales, JIT manufacturing, motor design, any one of which is a disruptive innovation channel they could monetize, all in the service of building electric cars. Tesla is an energy company, a battery company, a car company, etc, just as GE or…

In what sense is Tesla a leader in JIT manufacturing? Do you know how manufacturing takes place at all those other car companies in Germany, Japan, and South Korea? I can not talk about the Asian-based companies, but I know for sure that the manufacturing plants in Germany are very ahead. Because they produce different models at same time on the same track. Each and every car is different in every aspect. In Europe i…

The Tesla Factory is the NUMMI plant, which I believe was the first factory outside of Japan that began to use Lean. The manager of Tesla's factory is Gilbert Passin who is a "Toyota Manufacturing Expert" according to: http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20100203005622/en/Tesl...

Re: Tesla is a Battery Company

#122

Post by peterfirefly » Thu, Apr 02, 2015, 1:31 PM UTC

bs_bishop wrote: post #33

Interesting to consider --- is there enough lithium in the world to support this stuff? http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2010/ph240/eason2/

They don't actually use that much lithium -- and there is /plenty/ of lithium practically everywhere.

Cobalt is much closer to being a problem -- and it is still very far from being one.

---

Is Eric Eason a good authority on mineral reserves and resources? I don't think so:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2014/08/03/is-there-...

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/05/28/lithium/

Re: Tesla is a Battery Company

#123

Post by ridgeguy » Thu, Apr 02, 2015, 1:36 PM UTC

peterfirefly wrote: post #118

anon4 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't lithium batteries be recycled?

Yes. http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/mythbusters-part-3-recycling... http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/teslas-closed-loop-battery-r...

Thanks for these. The second link notes that the lithium battery recycling is profitable. Do you know of any links to more detailed economics of lithium battery recycling? I'm trying to estimate the cost of Li batteries in a fully recycling system at equilibrium, and I'm not finding any detailed cost/revenue breakdowns. Thank you.

Re: Tesla is a Battery Company

#124

Post by smackfu » Thu, Apr 02, 2015, 1:36 PM UTC

feld wrote: post #102

robotresearcher wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The battery in the Model S is an array of commodity Panasonic cells.

What part of "tesla is going to build their own batteries" do you not understand?

Sounds like the headline of this article should have used the future tense.

Re: Tesla is a Battery Company

#125

Post by peterfirefly » Thu, Apr 02, 2015, 2:01 PM UTC

_nedR wrote: post #71

>In the NY Metro area, it’s Con Edison That is a rather unfortunate (or rather appropriate) name for a company named after Edison.

Especially in French.

Re: Tesla is a Battery Company

#126

Post by SEJeff » Thu, Apr 02, 2015, 2:06 PM UTC

efremjw wrote: post #109

Whose battery IP does Tesla use?

Panasonic, source:

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/panasonic-and-tesla-sign-agr...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S#Battery

Re: Tesla is a Battery Company

#127

Post by peterfirefly » Thu, Apr 02, 2015, 2:06 PM UTC

ridgeguy wrote: post #123

peterfirefly wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/mythbusters-part-3-recycling... http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/teslas-closed-loop-battery-r...

Thanks for these. The second link notes that the lithium battery recycling is profitable. Do you know of any links to more detailed economics of lithium battery recycling? I'm trying to estimate the cost of Li batteries in a fully recycling system at equilibrium, and I'm not finding any detailed cost/revenue breakdowns. Thank you.

No, sorry. I'd be interested as well.

Re: Tesla is a Battery Company

#128

Post by jagtesh » Thu, Apr 02, 2015, 2:08 PM UTC

Just like how Apple is a chip fabrication company? I don't think so. Tesla was the first company to introduce OTA updates, something unheard of in the car industry. So to call them a battery company sounds very patronizing to me.

Re: Tesla is a Battery Company

#129

Post by drzaiusapelord » Thu, Apr 02, 2015, 2:22 PM UTC

jagtesh wrote: post #128

Just like how Apple is a chip fabrication company? I don't think so. Tesla was the first company to introduce OTA updates, something unheard of in the car industry. So to call them a battery company sounds very patronizing to me.

Except Apple is successful and Tesla is not. When articles like these come out for a company bleeding money its something to worry about. I think its obvious the lithium-ion just doesn't have the lifespan and density to replace cars. At least when gas is under $6 a gallon. After 4-5 years the resale value of that $30k battery pack is non-existant as its begining to fail. We're seeing this a lot with hybrid sales where the car's battery pack has a fraction of its capacity. The makes the motor work harder, but with a pure EV car there is no gas motor to take up the slack.

I have very low hopes for EVs. Even if Tesla lowered battery prices by 20%, which would be impressive, they're still extremely expensive and still wear out quickly. They make sense when gas is crazy expensive, but its not, especially with all this investment in shale oil.

I imagine the future will have more efficient hybrids and perhaps Tesla will migrate to a hybrid company if they want to stay alive. 100k for a range anxiety inducing EV with a low resale value after x years due to its $50k battery pack wearing out is not the vision of the future here.

Re: Tesla is a Battery Company

#130

Post by drzaiusapelord » Thu, Apr 02, 2015, 2:28 PM UTC

ethanbond wrote: post #2

I don't think this is a revelation to anyone who has been paying attention? This seems to have been the dominant hypothesis for a long, long time, and is always what justified Tesla's early (very) red activities. They were a battery company using luxury automobiles to fund battery R&D.

>They were a battery company using luxury automobiles to fund battery R&D.

This seems questionable to me. I just don't see lithium-ion powering electric cars in an affordable or usable fashion. The density isn't great and after 4-5 years the battery pack wears out, making your $30-50k battery investment disappear. There's no resale value on a battery that can't even hold 30% of its original charge. Musk's solar city shenanigans are cute, but not a lot of people are moving to solar when electricity is so cheap.

Tesla just never got the battery breakthrough it needed and it will probably never become a hybrid engine company. All this talk of "just wait until Musk does this or does that" has been the same excuse we've been hearing for years. It hasn't materialized, at least for Tesla.

$300m losses in 12 months is scary. $100m loss in the past quarter is just bad. Musk can build this factory, but he can't improve lithium-ion tech nor can he raise the price of gas. If gas is under $6 or so, there's very little incentive to buy a pure electric. Fanboyism aside, Tesla just looks like a mess and making excuses about how its really not a car company stinks of desperation. Tesla is pretty much a failed company. Unless they pivot to hybrid engines and start selling a lower cost car, they'll just continue to be the toy of the idle rich.