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Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

paulgraham.com

121–130 of 655 posts

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#121

"it's easy to imagine cases where a great programmer might invent things worth 100x or even 1000x an average programmer's salary" ... yet they get paid maybe 1.5x

Unless they start a startup. But, H1B doesn't make it easy for a startup founder to come to the US, since it requires the startup to already exist and be funded in order to go through the H1B process. So, it's a chicken and egg problem.

My co-founder is in the US on a visa that was sponsored by Google (and he still works for Google). Had that not been the case, he might still be in Australia (we probably could have made it happen had we needed to...but, he might not have had the motivation to come here without the Google job).

What I'm trying to say is that H1B does tend to lend itself to indentured servitude. Foreign workers here on a visa are less likely to seek other employers, because they have a visa to keep renewed, or they have to seek citizenship (which is a whole other pile of problems). That probably does depress the industry baseline salary.

But, my desired solution is not to reduce the number of indentured servants, but to kill the limits on their freedom to work that makes them indentured servants.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#122
What PG is stating is broadly true.

It may be possible to eke out a few more % of programmers by teaching computing more widely.

At the moment the bunch of programmers is fairly self-selecting, and there may be many more people who may be great programmers if exposed to the possibilities.

For instance, some people who would normally become metal workers, stone masons, fine artists or mechanical engineers could make excellent programmers.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#123
post #41

...and while you can train people to be competent, you can't train them to be exceptional. Why not? Every exceptional programmer I've ever met was unexceptional at one time. Something happened for them to become exceptional. I personally believe that while that "something" is most often "doing", "training" is often a big part of the equation. And that training is more often than not training their beliefs as much as…

""training" is often a big part of the equation."

I think the assumption is that at the speed these companies are operating having to wait for a "trained" (assuming it's true) batch is simply to long. By that point they may be out of business.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#124
> Anti-immigration people

Like the author? He wants a tranche of immigration slots to open and for that tranche, indirectly if not directly, to block immigrants from Mexico, Honduras, Nigeria, and so forth. These slots are effectively only open to Indians, Chinese, and a trickle from other countries.

So this H1-B proposal is anti-immigrant. It means immigration only from mostly two countries. Of a certain class of person. In order to cut the wages of US programmers and force them to work more non-FLSA hours.

> Exceptional programmers

This is risible. I worked with a Chinese H1-B hire who told me he had never touched a computer until he got to the US. While that may have been anomalous, research on the H1-B immigration program ( http://web.cs.ucdavis.edu/~matloff/h1b.html ) shows that it is not the best and brightest immigrating. The millionaire and billionaire angels and VC's want to flood the US with indentured servants chained to their H1-B visa. Look at the top H1-B sponsors - they are for Tata's indentured servants, not for people doing bleeding edge compiler/AI/whatever work.

> you can train people to be competent, you can't train them to be exceptional

Perhaps not, but I've met plenty of people with the capability to be exceptional programmers, but during non-flush times companies want programmers to have a BSCS, and with public colleges become more selective and raising their rates, they never get a chance to do so. The millionaires and billionaires get tax cuts on their capital gains, so the training they require for this work becomes more costly to the worker, and in fact more workers can't afford it, so a shortage develops. So then the parasite millionaires want to suck off of India's free IIT program instead of restoring US education to the level it used to be.

> how many more he'd hire

Yes, times are flush now. How many was he hiring in 2008-2009? How many in 2001-2002? When the economy goes into the toilet again, there will be millions of indentured servants still here on H1-B visas. How many 40 or 50 year old programmers is he willing to hire? Or are we supposed to pay and take out big loans for our college, work 60 hour weeks in our 20s and 30s with the carrot of options while paying San Francisco rents, suffering through the post-dotcom and bank failure recessions, only to be cast aside at 40?

We hear about supply and demand from the oracles of economics all the time, but somehow this NEVER applies to salaries going up. I mean I am open to hiring programmers right now as well - seriously. You'll be paid minimum wage and the output will have to be spectacular. As soon as the economy dips you'll be gone.

We the programmers work. We are the creators of wealth. I have been studying biology recently, including species which have become parasites. As one species becomes more parasitic on another, it changes form completely. It usually gains hooks and suckers to latch on to the working species it is a parasite off of, and the parasite devotes its body to eating and sexual reproduction. In our modern times, the angels, the accelerators, the VC's are the parasites. These "job creators" expropriate the surplus labor time of we the programmers, the network/system/database admins etc. who do all the work and create all the wealth. The LP's of the big VC firms are the type of polo-playing Phillips Andover heirs you can see in the documentary "Born Rich". Something I know the 20-something unkempt dorks who go to Python conferences know nothing about, although they are the ones ultimately being given their marching orders and who are getting profits sucked off their labor. These heirs have set up additional financial hurdles to getting a BSCS at a public college over the years, and the parasites now want to parasitically suck of of India's free IIT universities and turn their graduates into H1-B coolies over here.

> we should train

When the hell was the last time a tech company really trained its employees? Aside from the odd week-long class here or there? What a farce. Companies haven't trained for decades, and the parasites who use companies to parasitically suck off the labor of those of us who actually work have reworked public US colleges to be more financially impossible to get through than they used to - then they whine they can't find more "exceptional" US programmers. What a farce.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#125
post #109
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you read the essay? You seem to be totally ignoring the point that excellent programmers will be paid well because they are scarce compared to "decent" programmers. The goal is not to import cut-rate talent at cut-rate prices.

The only reasonable way to let more "great programmers" in is to let more of all kinds of programmers in.

Or maybe interview them before hiring? :)

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#126
post #28

"I asked the CEO of a startup with about 70 programmers how many more he'd hire if he could get all the great programmers he wanted. He said "We'd hire 30 tomorrow morning." Evidence-based policy proposal at its finest :)

Then why doesn't he hire them IN country X (say India, China). Only pros. No visa issues. Salaries even lower. Excellent people...

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#127

One thing that I don't get about the critics (especially the liberal-inclined) from H1B programs is: even if opening the gates ends up resulting in cheaper labor, what is wrong about that? If the gates were open, the ones coming here to work for cheap won't be taking your jobs at the next startup fad. They will be working doing the things that Americans don't want to do: improving network infrastructure, doing boring…

Nothing is wrong with that. Except that the Bay Area has become so ridiculously expensive, that at the end of the day, the only ones making real money there are the landlords. The landlords who were lucky to buy a piece of shit property 30 years ago for a dime and now charge you thousands for it.

Still want to drive salaries downward?

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#128
post #60
post #10

> The US has less than 5% of the world's population. Which means if the qualities that make someone a great programmer are evenly distributed, 95% of great programmers are born outside the US. This assumption is repeated throughout the essay, but I'm not particularly convinced it's true. Why would the qualities be evenly distributed between first world countries such as the US where programming is respected and well…

Do you honestly believe USA is a first world country in terms of availability/affordability of high quality welfare, healthcare and education systems?

I do not believe the USA is "best in class" as far as first world countries go, but having traveled abroad to 3rd world countries things could certainly be a lot worse here.

To give an example while in Belize I was told by one of the natives that in the event of a serious emergency one would probably die because just getting to the nearest hospital would take 4 hours best case scenario, but likely longer.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#129
post #116

Part of the reality of founding a company in the United States, and taking advantage of the freedoms and protections being in the USA offers, is that you have to work with the USA labor force. If you don't like it- well, go international. Fast food restaurants don't get to import the best burger-slingers from Germany. Software companies have to live in the same space. And it's complete and utter BS to suggest that th…

". . . it is not up to corporations to dictate terms of citizenship at their convenience." Of course not. But it is up to legislators to make decisions that are in the best interests of the U.S. going forward. An enlightened view of that might, as P.G. suggests, include allowing more programmers to come to U.S. To suggest that programmers are somehow analogous to fast-food workers is seriously misguided.

It will never be in the best interests of the United States to admit anyone into the country to please the desires of the stock market or of large corporations or of wealthy venture capitalists.

There is nothing, other than a modicum of education, that separates a talented software engineer from a talented fast food worker. I've seen plenty of engineers who I'd never trust with a burger or a grill.

Re: Let the Other 95% of Great Programmers In

#130
post #28

"I asked the CEO of a startup with about 70 programmers how many more he'd hire if he could get all the great programmers he wanted. He said "We'd hire 30 tomorrow morning." Evidence-based policy proposal at its finest :)

The CEO couldn't hire 30 tomorrow morning because he wouldn't pay what they're worth, else he would have already hired them.

Exactly ;)
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