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Google Fiber Austin

fiber.google.com

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Re: Google Fiber Austin

#121
post #115
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comcast is reporting 20% operating income for a network that is largely already paid for . There's reasons to believe that Verizon isn't doing a great job recouping it's up-front costs on FiOS: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_13/b42210461... . For the FiOS rollout, the capital costs alone are $1,000-2,000 per house: http://nypost.com/2010/04/01/why-i-think-verizon-had-to-pull... . There's no reason to…

How is that income figured exactly. I mean, doesn't every major movie seem to lose money even after raking in billions? I just don't trust any number from Comcast without a large volume of information on how those numbers were calculated. And at that, that doesn't explain how Comcast even stayed in business till that point? Were they allowed to install their networks at a loss? Are there costs artificially high? Are…

A better example is probably Charter, which doesn't have the noise of the media/movie business: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=112298&p=irol-re.... Look at page 54 of their 2013 10-K.

Their revenues were $8.15 billion (just over $100 per customer, for the whole year). $5.35 billion in operating costs, and $1.85 billion in depreciation and amortization (the loss in value of the capital in the ground). $925 million in net income on that revenue (11%).

What's really shocking is that their revenue per customer relationship is under $130 per year. That's the result of something else pundits ignore: cable company franchise agreements require them to build out to neighborhoods where many subscribers just get basic cable, which is usually subject to a regulated rate of just $10-20 dollars/month.

Looking at just the ISP business makes the numbers look worse. $4 billion of the revenue is from video, while $2 billion of the costs are for programming (see page F-10). If you take out the video revenue, you're down to $4.15 billion in revenue, with about $5.15 billion in expenses (i.e. you're losing a billion dollars a year).

Ultimately, of course, after paying interest on debt Charter lost money for the year. The idea that cable companies are wildly profitable is an HN myth.

Re: Google Fiber Austin

#122
post #101

I live at Austin and my Time Warner cable modem worked for me fine and the speed suffices for my typical needs, however it's $64/month, I would switch to Google-Fiber anytime soon as long as it opens in my community, though I don't know how I am going to use that 1Gbps bandwidth. If 1Gbps becomes a reality, then each house can become a small data-center, which was limited by upstream speed (less than 2Mbps) in the pa…

You'll have to wait a number of years, but the killer app for 1gbps is virtual reality with the data mostly stored in the cloud. It's going to require extraordinarily fast broadband to reach its potential.

The things people think of today for home broadband uses (video, gaming), will be considered a joke in ten years when it comes to using bandwidth.

Re: Google Fiber Austin

#123
post #115
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comcast is reporting 20% operating income for a network that is largely already paid for . There's reasons to believe that Verizon isn't doing a great job recouping it's up-front costs on FiOS: http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_13/b42210461... . For the FiOS rollout, the capital costs alone are $1,000-2,000 per house: http://nypost.com/2010/04/01/why-i-think-verizon-had-to-pull... . There's no reason to…

How is that income figured exactly. I mean, doesn't every major movie seem to lose money even after raking in billions? I just don't trust any number from Comcast without a large volume of information on how those numbers were calculated. And at that, that doesn't explain how Comcast even stayed in business till that point? Were they allowed to install their networks at a loss? Are there costs artificially high? Are…

[deleted]

Re: Google Fiber Austin

#124
post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All information we collect about the use of Google Fiber TV (including use of programs and applications available through Google Fiber TV) may be associated with the Google Account being used for Google Fiber TV. ... information from the use of Google Fiber Internet (such as URLs of websites visited or content of communications) will not be associated with the Google Account you use for Fiber, except with your consen…

will not be associated with the Google Account you use for Fiber This phrase has rather a lot of qualifications which make it trivially easy to circumvent. For example, Google might associate the data with a different account, an internal "ghost" account that you specifically don't use for Google Fiber (but which is identical to it in every way). I for one would like to see ISPs make an effort to construct systems wh…

systems where even the owner of the ISP doesn't really store any information

This is basically the default on routers if you don't enable NetFlow. Likewise DHCP and DNS daemons can trivially disable logging. It doesn't cost an ISP money to remove default surveillance; it costs them to add it but the value of the data is worth it.

Re: Google Fiber Austin

#125
post #85

Why don't we see more startups in the fiber-to-the-premises realm? Is cost really that high and difficult to obtain? HN has led me to believe that a good idea with motivated founders will get funded, no matter what. And I can't think of a better time to enter this market.

Because FTTP involves massive upfront costs with no hope of 10x or 100x returns. Say you sell fiber at $70/month. The operating profit margin of a company like Charter, which doesn't have a media-arm to rely on, is like 10-15%. So per year, each subscriber is worth $80-126. Over 10 years, discounted, that's under a grand. And to wire them up, you have to spend about that much if not more, up-front.

And that's when companies like Charter aren't busy going bankrupt.

Re: Google Fiber Austin

#126
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that income figured exactly. I mean, doesn't every major movie seem to lose money even after raking in billions? I just don't trust any number from Comcast without a large volume of information on how those numbers were calculated. And at that, that doesn't explain how Comcast even stayed in business till that point? Were they allowed to install their networks at a loss? Are there costs artificially high? Are…

A better example is probably Charter, which doesn't have the noise of the media/movie business: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=112298&p=irol-re... . Look at page 54 of their 2013 10-K. Their revenues were $8.15 billion (just over $100 per customer, for the whole year). $5.35 billion in operating costs, and $1.85 billion in depreciation and amortization (the loss in value of the capital in the ground). $9…

I think the "myth" comes from attributing almost all costs to the video side which results in conclusions like $4.15B Internet revenue with minimal costs == all profit.

Re: Google Fiber Austin

#127

Here in the Netherlands we also have this but from more companies. A lot of cities now have fiber to the home, I have 50/50 + tv for 50 euro (100/100 would be 55). Some cities also have Gigabit, for about 100 euros/month ( http://www.tweak.nl/consument/fiber/productoverzicht.html ) Google fiber doesn't seem so special to me. Maybe I should read into how the money from the fiber network is made here. I think there are…

Multiple companies working in a much smaller area. (The Netherlands is smaller than 41 states http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territo... but has a larger population than 45 states http://www.ipl.org/div/stateknow/popchart.html) It costs an awful lot more to build the infrastructure needed. Because of this cost, many cities offer monopolies for a number of years so the city doesn't have to spend the money to build the infrastructure itself. In Austin, that is pretty much Time Warner Cable and ATT. Since the announcement ATT has been pushing to get Gigabit fiber out (I'm currently using it), that would have never happened if Google wasn't coming into town.

Re: Google Fiber Austin

#128
post #94

Hypothetical for advocates of federal net neutrality regulations: Google is offering a "free" (after one-time installation) tier: "up to 5 Mbps download and 1 Mbps upload speed". Suppose on that tier, they also offered a temporary "turbo" option, 1Gbps+ for the next hour, or next 5GB, or for the duration of a session with a particular site, whatever. And this "turbo" was available on reasonable, non-discriminatory te…

Hypothetically it hurts the "two guys in a garage" who have to hire a third guy (or pay a middleman Turbo Distribution Network) just to handle dozens of ISP turbo contracts.

Re: Google Fiber Austin

#129
post #58

Damn, one time $300 fee for "Up to" 5 Mbps download and 1 Mbps upload. That's like getting free internet for 6 and a half years[1] from current providers after 6 months. And if you want to upgrade you've already got the hardware. I wonder what the minimum time of undercutting at a loss service they can offer is without it being considered anti-competitive. [1] They guarantee 7 years of free service https://fiber.goog…

Is there any evidence that they are operating at a loss? For 2013 Comcast reported 13.5 billion operating income on 64.6 revenue [1]. This means that they could potentially lower their prices 20% without incurring in losses. If we assume that Google is able to operate more efficiently, which isn't such a bold assumption, they could potentially undercut prices even more. On top of that, we could also assume that in te…

Google say they are not planning to operate at a loss. Re Kansas: "Several Google executives at the event were very clear that delivering gigabit internet access over fiber for $70 a month (and even free 5 Mbps fiber) is a business that will not only help advance Google’s consumer goals, but also make it money."

I daresay it depends on what assumptions you make about future sign up rates, cost of capital and the like.

https://gigaom.com/2012/07/26/the-economics-of-google-fiber-...

Re: Google Fiber Austin

#130
post #6

I still think Google is at risk of forming a monopoly and are at risk of becoming Bell 2.0. Unfortunately due to the lack of quality ISP's, the first to offer residential fiber to the perimeter will rapidly absorb the market.

In case the 'fiber to the perimeter' came from the 'FTTP' acronym, the 'P' usually represents 'premises': https://www.google.com.au/search?q=define:FTTP

Just so you know!

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