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Mobile is Eating the World

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Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#121

Post by Ologn »

api wrote: post #42

Don't disagree with the market numbers, but there's a problem with mobile. It is best illustrated by the fact that I csnnot develop a mobile app on a mobile device. There won't be any "convergence" until mobile OSes are uncrippled. I personally see a three device ecosystem. Mobile will cut into PC on the low end, but it's really growing into a space not served by PC or server. Computing in general is expanding.

> I cannot develop a mobile app on a mobile device.

You can develop an Android app on an Android device.

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.aide.ui

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#122

Post by soylentcola »

Tyrannosaurs wrote: post #104
iaskwhy wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have this theory the so called breakthrough of Apple in the TV business is the iPad and not a big 5k TV screen.

Ben Evans himself says that Eric Schmidt was right when he said Google would own the TV market a few years back - he (Schmidt) just didn't realise it would be Android tablets rather than GoogleTV.

Slightly off topic here but I still think a large part of that is due to hostility from more traditional content providers. The promise of GoogleTV (that was mostly squashed before it had a chance to mature) was that it provided a front-end for content on more traditional satellite/cable services as well as for finding all of the free streams available on network websites and newer platforms like Youtube and Vimeo.

I think the real disruptive potential of GoogleTV was that it allowed you to search for something and have results from all of these disparate feeds show up in a single list. It put content from the web (including independent and user-generated content) on par with network programming or programming delivered via the web instead of a cable subscription.

When networks blocked GoogleTV from accessing their streams without tinkering with user agent strings, etc. it really put a dent in the whole strategy. The point was to show you everything that was available on the big screen in your living room. Networks wanted you to watch on the TV via the more lucrative cable and rental options and only use free web streams as an alternative when you're at your computer in the office or the hotel.

In this way, current tablet-to-TV options like Chromecast and AppleTV are less disruptive since they don't put web content on the same level as cable content. To watch TV you just flip through the channels. To watch web stuff you need to connect some device and push content to the TV. It's a small thing but I think it's a legitimate difference. Firing up YouTube to push a video to your TV isn't the same as searching for "video games" on your Google/Apple TV and seeing TotalBiscuit come up in the same search results as something from Viacom.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#123

Post by general_failure »

Cyther606 wrote: post #37

By these figures, 80% of the world will be carrying a mobile spy tool by 2020. I refuse to do anything on a mobile phone that is conceivably worse than PG-13. Until mobile hardware is free and open, I only view the proliferation of mobile Internet as a tool for human enslavement.

Its not like PC hardware is open fully.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#124

Post by luma »

AnthonyMouse wrote: post #81
cageface wrote: post #6

There is no point in drawing a distinction between the future of technology and the future of mobile. I find Evans' analysis of mobile a bit hyperbolic. Yes the growth of mobile is explosive and, in some cases, it's displacing older technology. But for a lot of use cases small touch screen devices are simply inadequate. It's probably true that a lot of people that used to use desktop or laptop computers just to check…

> Yes the growth of mobile is explosive and, in some cases, it's displacing older technology. I think the mischaracterization is of what mobile is replacing. It isn't the PC. A PC is primarily a computing device, an iPhone is primarily a communications device. The iPhone and iPad aren't replacing PCs, they're replacing newspaper, radio and telephone. They're only replacing PCs to the extent that the PC had already pa…

> They're only replacing PCs to the extent that the PC had already partially replaced some of those things.

I don't know if that's entirely true. A lot of people bought PCs 10 years ago simply because that was the only way to access this new Facespace thing their kids told them about. Those users are now using tablets or mobile because it serves their needs better than a desktop did.

The reality is that a whole lot of people bought systems with way more capabilities than their use case or abilities warranted. Desktop sales are down, and for this reason I don't think they are coming back. "Real" computer users will still use real computers, everyone else is probably better served by mobile.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#125

Post by tacoman »

CalRobert wrote: post #102
diltonm wrote: post #23

My smartphone has 2 Gigs of RAM and most of it is wasted. Games on phones aren't even interesting because my fingers slide right off the screen when the action gets fast. Give me a PC with 2 Gigs of RAM and I can do amazing things with it, a mouse and a keyboard. Every single phone app I use is an exercise in futility or it feels that way. Touch is a terrible HID. Smart phones are handy when you don't have anything e…

Remember when phones had keyboards? Like, actual physical keyboards that slid out when you needed them and tucked away neatly when you didn't? I really miss them :-(

Given how huge the mobile phone industry, it don't understand why some manufacturer* hasn't carved out a niche for keyboard phones. Since all the manufactures have arrived at the roughly the same form factor and spec, maybe we'll start to see one of them try something different again.

* Other than Blackberry. Despite being a BB10 user, I can understand why the general population isn't attracted to it.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#126

Post by Tyrannosaurs »

coldtea wrote: post #119
Tyrannosaurs wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ben Evans himself says that Eric Schmidt was right when he said Google would own the TV market a few years back - he (Schmidt) just didn't realise it would be Android tablets rather than GoogleTV.

And they also didn't realized that it would be the iPad and not Android tablets. The latter have not been making any inroads...

You need to think outside of the US.

It may not be official Google Android, but low cost generic Android tablets are massive in Asia. Most of them are low spec devices but that's all you need if all you're doing is watching movies and a bit of web surfing.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#127

Post by Psylocyber »

JoeAltmaier wrote: post #111
Psylocyber wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN hasn't changed. Endless, meaningless 'discussions' about non-issues that mainly reflect the inability of socially-inept and newbie programmers to understand the world around them. To fill their lives, they leave paragraph after paragraph of text. It's fun to watch, but I hope things improve.

That's a cynical view. How about: people of every age and level of experience bring what they have to the discussion, and learn from one another. You could do that too, by gently adding your experience to the mix. Doing it without disaffecting your peers gives you extra points.

Yes I am very cynical. Good catch.

The rest of your response is static and not applicable. You don't have information to back up your response, plus it's wrong.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#128

Post by webXL »

rsync wrote: post #67
awad wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Steve Jobs had a good quote on this: "I'm trying to think of a good analogy. When we were an agrarian nation, all cars were trucks. But as people moved more towards urban centers, people started to get into cars. I think PCs are going to be like trucks. Less people will need them. And this transformation is going to make some people uneasy... because the PC has taken us a long way. They were amazing. But it changes.…

Best selling car in the US is, and has been for years, the Ford F-150.

Yes, hard to believe by looking out at my parking lot and what I notice on the freeway, but pickups are about an eighth of the market, according to this: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html

It's amazing that a "cross-over" is considered a truck, when there's practically nothing in common. At least the SUV shares the same chassis as a truck in most cases.

Going back to Jobs point, I would be interested in some historical numbers. The truck's healthy market share might just be due to the popularity of the SUV.

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#129

Post by [deleted] »

Tyrannosaurs wrote: post #103
barking wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very well put. In my experience tablets are also replacing books and tv. I suspect that in a lot of houses the parents are now using tablets, the kids are using PCs/laptops and the tv is mostly off. Well this is how it is in our house :). Our tv now exists for netflix via chromecast once or twice a week.

My experience of watching kids (ranging from 3 to 15 years old) use this stuff is, in order of level of use/desire to own: Smartphones, tablets, , PCs/laptops. As a proportion of use, parents are more likely to use a PC/laptop than kids. For kids, their default go to device isn't the PC. That's what they use when they have to do something which isn't great on a tablet. The other interesting thing is what they think "…

[deleted]

Re: Mobile is Eating the World

#130

Post by winthrowe »

Tyrannosaurs wrote: post #103
barking wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very well put. In my experience tablets are also replacing books and tv. I suspect that in a lot of houses the parents are now using tablets, the kids are using PCs/laptops and the tv is mostly off. Well this is how it is in our house :). Our tv now exists for netflix via chromecast once or twice a week.

My experience of watching kids (ranging from 3 to 15 years old) use this stuff is, in order of level of use/desire to own: Smartphones, tablets, , PCs/laptops. As a proportion of use, parents are more likely to use a PC/laptop than kids. For kids, their default go to device isn't the PC. That's what they use when they have to do something which isn't great on a tablet. The other interesting thing is what they think "…

> A lot of gaming is phone/tablet rather than a PC.

You can take my ability to dissipate over a half kilowatt from my cold dead hands. Some games will always be better on PC because they can make use of the power.

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