Why Is Peter Thiel Pessimistic About Technological Innovation?

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Sep 19, 2014, 2:28 AM UTC

austenallred wrote: post #92

gone35 wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok, I know it might be hard to fathom, but funnily enough, every single one of the technologies you mention --without exception-- harken back in (arguably) significant and non-trivial ways to technology or fully functional prototypes already in place by the 1970s, if not earlier. I'm not making this up. Look them up and see for yourself! (Yes, even autonomous cars [1]. And ABS [2]. And X-ray computed tomography [3])…

Isn't that just how technology works? We've technically had the Internet since the 1960s, but it has grown and developed and changed enough that the Internet we had in the 1960s wasn't really what we'd call "the Internet" today (the world wide web). It takes a long time for anything to go from the first time someone hacked together a semi-functioning prototype to widespread adoption, especially when it's the 0 to 1 t…

Post by rayiner » Fri, Sep 19, 2014, 2:45 AM UTC

acchow wrote: post #55

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #19

We're close to getting cars that can drive themselves. We have cars that can detect when the brakes are locking and fix it, so that you never go into a skid. We have railroad locomotives that can tell when an axle is just starting to slip, and cut the power to that one axle, so that the wheels never slip even at full power on slick rails. We have jet aircraft engines that can report when a part is getting close to fa…

Not to mention, whatever we are doing as a society seems to have dramatically reduced the rates of crime (especially violent crime).

Post by barney54 » Fri, Sep 19, 2014, 2:56 AM UTC

tachyonbeam wrote: post #46

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #19

We're close to getting cars that can drive themselves. We have cars that can detect when the brakes are locking and fix it, so that you never go into a skid. We have railroad locomotives that can tell when an axle is just starting to slip, and cut the power to that one axle, so that the wheels never slip even at full power on slick rails. We have jet aircraft engines that can report when a part is getting close to fa…

There's also electric cars, which are basically already here and can't be stopped at this point. Solar panels, which have crossed the $1 per watt barrier a while ago. I believe that relatively soon we'll have genetics-driven psychiatry and medicine. Depressed people won't automatically be prescribed SSRIs, but what is deemed most suitable based on their genetic profile. Nobody will need to ask you if you're allergic…

Post by [deleted] » Fri, Sep 19, 2014, 3:05 AM UTC

barney54 wrote: post #126

therzathegza wrote: post #17

I think the article unfairly bashes rail transport by singling out coal. If you read Warren Buffett's writings, his investment in rail was mostly due to being able to move something 500 miles on one gallon of diesel fuel. Regardless of what is being carried, there are very few things that efficient. Coal sucks, but but don't throw the baby out with the bathwater there. As for the science section, claiming that produc…

I'm not sure what is so bad about coal. It powered the industrial revolution and more importantly today, it can keep servers running when wind and Oskar can't (unless you only want to serve pages when the wind blows and the sun shines). Besides being dependable, it us also affordable and with today's technology emits very little pollution.

Post by AndrewKemendo » Fri, Sep 19, 2014, 3:35 AM UTC

fidotron wrote: post #10

api wrote: post #3

"I sort-of date the end of rapid technological progress to the late-60s or early-70s. At that point something more or less broke in this country and in the western world more generally which has put us into a zone where there’s much slower technological progress." I've believed for years that we entered something like a minor dark age (dim age?) on or about 1970, and that computers have become synonymous with "techno…

The cold war having gone by the tipping point was also a very large factor. This tied into the moonrace, and the spin off innovations from that. As a side note, It has always annoyed me that there's a loud contingent of people that object to human space travel on the basis it's not the most efficient way to conduct science, because that is not the point of it. It is a signal of intent, throwing the baton far into the…