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Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

edge.org

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Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#121
post #77

So first about the article: >>The notion of standard deviation has confused hordes of scientists What an assertion! It also proved to be very useful for hordes of scientists... what about some examples of confused scientists ? >>There is no scientific reason to use it in statistical investigations in the age of the computer As someone who uses it daily I am eagerly awaiting his argument. >>Say someone just asked you…

He's inflammatory. Really, really inflammatory. He also tends to write about obvious technical points so if you do pick through the morass and find the gem you'll be a bit underwhelmed. In this instance, standard deviations are obviously important statistics to compute and have many, many useful properties, sure, but Taleb rightly points out that they can be misused and I agree with him that their misuse is endemic i…

> Don't hate the player? At least he's arguing that people ought to be smarter and worry about what data really means.

Are you still talking about the inflamatory style, or is that about the contents of the article?

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#122
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This comment was great fun to read, and I suspect that I share some of your opinions about Taleb (although mine are decaying with each day that passes since I last finished reading any of his books), but it would have been stronger as an argument if you had left off the part about him being a "vile idiot".

I just can't pass it. I gave my best at reading his book. The guy is unable to write one paragraph which doesn't contain some nonsense or serious misuse of established terms. He is insulting whole groups of people and institutions without giving any examples or research. I am pretty sure that if his stuff were posted without his name the conclusion would be obvious: it's just nonsense and very offensive at that. I re…

...inability to make specific point without throwing condescending remarks.

Hey, Kettle? It's Pot calling. He seems pretty pissed off about what color you are.

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just can't pass it. I gave my best at reading his book. The guy is unable to write one paragraph which doesn't contain some nonsense or serious misuse of established terms. He is insulting whole groups of people and institutions without giving any examples or research. I am pretty sure that if his stuff were posted without his name the conclusion would be obvious: it's just nonsense and very offensive at that. I re…

Eric Falkenstein's various Taleb takedowns are fun. http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/fama-on-taleb.html http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/taleb-mishandles-frag... http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2010/12/nassim-taleb-imitates... http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/review-of-talebs-blac...

Your first link is an excerpt from [1]. I'm not sure its much of a takedown either?

I found the second and fourth links very interesting, thanks for the other perspective.

[1] http://www.dimensional.com/famafrench/2009/03/qa-confidence-...

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#124
post #79

I'm seriously questioning some people's reading comprehension - he NEVER said STD is not useful! He's only saying the name "Standard Deviation" is badly chosen.

Read the blog post carefully:

> it is time to retire it from common use and replace it with the more effective one of mean deviation

> Standard deviation, STD, should be left to mathematicians, physicists and mathematical statisticians deriving limit theorems

>There is no scientific reason to use it in statistical investigations in the age of the computer, as it does more harm than good

He is saying it's not useful for real world things and people are just confused. What you wrote is reasonable view. What Taleb writes isn't.

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#125
post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's inflammatory. Really, really inflammatory. He also tends to write about obvious technical points so if you do pick through the morass and find the gem you'll be a bit underwhelmed. In this instance, standard deviations are obviously important statistics to compute and have many, many useful properties, sure, but Taleb rightly points out that they can be misused and I agree with him that their misuse is endemic i…

> Don't hate the player? At least he's arguing that people ought to be smarter and worry about what data really means. Are you still talking about the inflamatory style, or is that about the contents of the article?

Probably more about the style than the substance, here.

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#126
post #78

So first about the article: >>The notion of standard deviation has confused hordes of scientists What an assertion! It also proved to be very useful for hordes of scientists... what about some examples of confused scientists ? >>There is no scientific reason to use it in statistical investigations in the age of the computer As someone who uses it daily I am eagerly awaiting his argument. >>Say someone just asked you…

>> The notion of standard deviation has confused hordes of scientists > What an assertion! It also proved to be very useful for hordes of scientists... what about some examples of confused scientists ? He is exaggerating, for sure. But the point is valid: the mean average deviation (MAD) is often very different than the standard deviation (STD), and the MAD is more intuitive, it has a natural geometrical interpretati…

> MAD, however is nicer for reporting data since it is more intuitive.

I have a hard time fathoming how anyone could think such a thing. This is math: we should be using things because they map to reality in some way, not because they are aesthetically pleasing.

The standard deviation maps to processes where the "importance" of changes is proportional to their square. For example, electrical power is proportional to the square of voltage, so AC power systems are conventionally rated by standard deviation. My 120 V power outlet has a standard deviation of its potential of 120 volts.

Standard deviation is also commonly used in situations where we cannot put a number on the importance of the deviation but we know it is big.

The mean average deviation is useful for numbers that are directly proportional to their importance. For example, if we have a hundred lamps and we measure their optical power outputs, the MAD would be a useful measure of their variation. Optical power is already in units of oomph.

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#127

So first about the article: >>The notion of standard deviation has confused hordes of scientists What an assertion! It also proved to be very useful for hordes of scientists... what about some examples of confused scientists ? >>There is no scientific reason to use it in statistical investigations in the age of the computer As someone who uses it daily I am eagerly awaiting his argument. >>Say someone just asked you…

I know this might be shooting the argument in the wrong direction...

Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought that the term inverse square law was erroneous, and I have yet to come across a complaint from anyone.

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#128
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You conveniently leave out the reasonable portions of his article. I read your comment before I read the article, and guess what, you have cherry picked specific parts of the article such that Taleb comes off as stupid. It took me ten seconds to figure out what 'Goldstein and Taleb' refers to: http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~steele/Courses/434/434Con... http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=970480 He…

>He specifies that SD is reasonable as a mathematical tool, but not for inference about society, finance, etc. Yes, and as SD is widely used in those so this is quite a bold statement to make an Taleb doesn't give one example of things going wrong with it and his proposal working better. This observation is also wrong and I pointed out some areas where standard deviation is useful. >Your comment appears to have an ag…

> Taleb doesn't point one situation when MAD works better than SD (I pointed out some where SD works better than MAD) he also doesn't address obvious problems which such substitutions create.

Ummm, are we both discussing the same article?

> Yes it's ideology of calling people out when they assert incorrect things in condescending tone without any arguments while insulting whole groups of scientists and statisticians.

No. It is the ideology of dissing Taleb. Obviously I am not his paid spokesperson. But please argue to the merit of his arguments.

To quote from Taleb's edge.org article:

>> 1) MAD is more accurate in sample measurements, and less volatile than STD since it is a natural weight whereas standard deviation uses the observation itself as its own weight, imparting large weights to large observations, thus overweighing tail events.

Also he alludes to his paper with Goldstein. It is clear form Goldstein and Taleb's manuscript that that Taleb is not just throwing these arguments to talk trash about practitioners of statistics. They report findings of an experiment with multiple groups of applied statisticians. I'll quote from it [1]:

"We first posed this question to 97 portfolio managers, assistant portfolio managers, and analysts employed by investment management companies who were taking part in a professional seminar. The second group of participants comprised 13 Ivy League graduate students preparing for a career in financial engineering. The third group consisted of 16 investment professionals working for a major bank. The question was presented in writing and explained verbally to make sure definitions were clear."

That makes Taleb's edge.org claims far from unsubstantiated.

[1] Goldstein, Daniel G. and Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, We Don't Quite Know What We are Talking About When We Talk About Volatility (March 28, 2007). Journal of Portfolio Management, Vol. 33, No. 4, 2007. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=970480

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just can't pass it. I gave my best at reading his book. The guy is unable to write one paragraph which doesn't contain some nonsense or serious misuse of established terms. He is insulting whole groups of people and institutions without giving any examples or research. I am pretty sure that if his stuff were posted without his name the conclusion would be obvious: it's just nonsense and very offensive at that. I re…

Eric Falkenstein's various Taleb takedowns are fun. http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/fama-on-taleb.html http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2012/11/taleb-mishandles-frag... http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2010/12/nassim-taleb-imitates... http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2009/03/review-of-talebs-blac...

Is it telling that in his review of Black Swann he's seriously citing Malcolm Gadwell of all people?

Re: Nassim Taleb: We should retire the notion of standard deviation

#130

So first about the article: >>The notion of standard deviation has confused hordes of scientists What an assertion! It also proved to be very useful for hordes of scientists... what about some examples of confused scientists ? >>There is no scientific reason to use it in statistical investigations in the age of the computer As someone who uses it daily I am eagerly awaiting his argument. >>Say someone just asked you…

Take this with a grain a salt. Taleb has made a lot of enemies with his writings about the bank bailouts and gov inefficiency. There are a lot of reasons for people to attack him, especially anonymously on the internet.

I am not saying that the arguments are without merit, just to be cautious in forming an opinion on the man.

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