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Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

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121–130 of 188 posts

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#121
post #7

A couple of interesting statistics about stocks that are easily available are related to how many people are shorting it (ie, someone borrows a share, sells it, and makes a profit if they can re-buy it at a later date to close the short position). In the case of TSLA the stock, as of Apr 15, almost 31 million shares were lent out to short sellers ("sold short"). That is out of 72 million shares on the market ("float"…

but I wouldn't bet on the gains in TSLA the stock tomorrow/in after-hours trading lasting for a long time.

Depends on the future performance of the company. Netflix experienced one of these short squeezes in January. Look at their 6 month chart.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NFLX+Interactive#symbol=n...;

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#122
post #111
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The Tesla Model S is an amazing car. But claiming that it's more convenient, or is a better car in every way but range, is a vast overstatement. It would be absolutely awful for me, and many other people with similar needs. Obviously convenience is different for different people. The OP is probably someone who finds car maintenance very inconvenient and as the owner of a used station wagon I am guessing you are not…

I too find maintenance inconvenient; but my used station wagon doesn't require much of that either. In the past three years, I've only ever had to have it inspected, tires replaced, and oil changes. Now, the Tesla doesn't have oil changes, so that one aspect is removed, but it does have annual maintenance. So, I'm looking at maybe two oil changes per year, vs. one annual servicing; a small improvement in maintenance…

Do you have the math worked out for the total cost of ownership or at least a citation?

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#123
post #104

I guess it's a California thing. You have to believe in global warming (In the mid-west we have had 20 degrees below normal now for 3 months and snow of 14 inches in May). My practical side says the Tesla is nice but if fighting CO2 is your aim you could buy a $20K Honda accord and convert it to run on ammonia ( nearest practical gas to hydrogen). Ammonia is already piped all over the midwest and in contrast to grid…

Interesting, I didn't know ammonia was all that combustible. Won't NoX emissions be a problem?

Also, won't the fact that ammonia is almost stupefyingly toxic be a problem?

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#124
post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't need to wait until expiry to sell. There is a lot to be said for options if you use them carefully. Yes, risk is higher with high leverage and a narrow portfolio. But returns can be also. I think the line about risk adjusted returns being higher in index funds is 3 parts inexperienced investors trying to pick stocks without doing their homework and 7 parts experienced investors trying to convince inexperien…

Without quantifying the risks involved with your trading strategies, it is impossible to say whether you are beating the risk-adjusted returns of an index fund. Additionally, I am pretty sure index funds, even without risk adjustments, have been proven to be better investments in the long term than any actively managed strategy. And this holds regardless of the experience of the investors. There are always going to b…

There are always going to be a few exceptions to the rule...

Back when I lived in NY and worked in bond markets, an interesting study came out evaluating active mutual fund managers. A chance distribution was able to account for all but 2 at a 95% confidence level. Those two exceptions were named Peter Lynch and Warren Buffett.

Peter Lynch unfortunately retired from active investing, and his advice is that people should invest in indexed mutual funds. He also is not unexplainable by chance - the chance of someone having done that well by chance was under 5%, but it was still possible.

At a 99% confidence level, only Warren Buffett was left.

Warren Buffett is unquestionably knowledgeable. But his returns have been boosted over the long term by a couple of major investing advantages. The first is that he likes to buy whole companies, and is reportedly a stellar manager. His management expertise then turns into improved returns for that company, which becomes a good investment. Thus the cause/effect relationship is not clear. The second advantage is that when a company has problems (eg Goldman Sachs in 2008) they tend to call Warren, because they know that if they get him on board then they will restore confidence. But the deal that he gets is significantly better than what anyone else can get from that company.

The study did not include hedge funds like the one George Soros ran because their complex trading strategies can't readily be compared.

Anyways, the professionals can't run funds which beat chance returns. Why do you think will be able to?

(Technical detail. It is possible to beat the averages, and my understanding is that the professionals do on average tend to do so. The problem is that their cost of beating the average is sufficiently high that their funds don't come out ahead. And the results of their research get reflected in the stock price, which is available for everyone to look at.)

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#125

> This is Tesla's first profitable quarter. I suppose this isn't factoring in the countless enormous government subsidies. I don't really count this as "profitable".

Ah, well if you get to make up your own definitions of profitable, then I suppose they weren't.

But if you use the actual definition of profitable, meaning they had more revenue than expenses in this quarter, then they were profitable.

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#126
post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder, INAL but if he says something like that publicly then it's not insider trading to act on it, I would think anyway.

But OP isn't referring to insider trading. The comment was in regards to the timing of the information. The only time that I believe executives are restricted is during/after an IPO. Another issue is making sure that material information is disclosed properly. Elon was essentially hinting that they were going to have a really good quarter. That kind of information is material and would likely need to be disclosed pro…

I didn't know that, how does it work with interviews then? Do they like disclose all info that will be said in the interview beforehand? I don't know much about this either, I'm also incredibly curious...

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#127
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What?!!! Just so I get this straight. In order to short the stock you have to pay an annual interest rate of 46% of the stock value? I realize most shorts are probably only in it for short term, but that is still pretty insane.

Not sure if you're joking or not, but I'll offer a quick explanation. Interest in this context does not mean interest on a loan, but rather how many people are interested in shorting the stock. The 46% short interest meant that almost half of Tesla's stock was shorted. To put it another way, 46% of Tesla's stock was loaned out from various parties to sell to other various parties. This is a bad thing for the short se…

Probably isn't joking. That is also the claim I initially thought was being made.

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#128
post #7

A couple of interesting statistics about stocks that are easily available are related to how many people are shorting it (ie, someone borrows a share, sells it, and makes a profit if they can re-buy it at a later date to close the short position). In the case of TSLA the stock, as of Apr 15, almost 31 million shares were lent out to short sellers ("sold short"). That is out of 72 million shares on the market ("float"…

The most amazing thing about your post is that 95% of your post went right over my head. And I consider myself a fairly intelligent person. :P (There's probably some interesting commentary in there somewhere about the complexity of financial markets and how it is probably bad for society to have a vast portion of our economic growth riding on something most people don't get.)

>There's probably some interesting commentary in there somewhere about the complexity of financial markets and how it is probably bad for society to have a vast portion of our economic growth riding on something most people don't get.

Not really. Financial markets day-to-day operations don't really affect peoples real-lives. Every industry is full of terminology and jargon that describes the inner workings but that isn't necessary to understand for the outsider.

The average person with a retirement fund just wants to see it keep and increase in value over time. They don't particularly care if the traders of that fund were losers/beneficiaries of a short squeeze on a segment of their portfolio, as long as the overall value keeps going up.

Kind of like how the average web visitor doesn't care what OS and database a site runs as long as it is fast and bug-free.

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#129
post #52

Ask HN: Will anyone be buying Tesla stock when the markets open tomorrow? I'm wondering whether its a good investment moving forward?

Wait for profit takers to bring it down a little but yes, if you're willing to hold for the long term -- 5+ years at least -- I believe in it. I think a $100 price target is not absurd. Of coruse, Tesla is so comically far from becoming a mainstream car company that it's not for the feint of heart. It's not their products that will challenge them I don't think. It's the difficult of scaling a car company. No easy tas…

I'd add it's also probably a good idea to wait for some bad news since the market is probably likely to over-react and anybody still skeptical will see that as an exit point to take profits.

Re: Tesla Smashes Earnings And Revenue Expectations

#130
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon Musk several days ago: EDIT: My mistake, this was said much longer ago (September 2012). I just read it recently. Thanks to batbomb for pointing this out. My apologies. “It’s doing pretty well actually given that we’re such a huge short position. In fact I think the short position may be as high as one can actually go. They literally hit the ceiling on the short position. The shorts are in it to the hills. I thi…

This quote makes me very happy :) There's nothing better than proving naysayers wrong. As if it isn't hard enough making something useful as it is without people betting actual money that you're not going to succeed...

Shorting is great because it helps minimize how out of control bubbles get. Yet, it isn't free money, because you actually have to be right about a stock being overvalued, as the case seems not to have been here.

Being an underinformed naysayer isn't any worse than being an underinformed cheerleader. The only difference is that the naysayers appear to have been wrong in this case for this earnings period. I wouldn't be surprised if many were over influenced by skepticism about a company run by a large personality. It is easy to err in the other direction, too.

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