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Elon Musk's Data Doesn't Back Up His Claims of New York Times Fakery

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Re: Elon Musk's Data Doesn't Back Up His Claims of New York Times Fakery

#121
"Tesla Motors initially expected to sell at least 5,000 units in 2012 and set a sales target of 20,000." (1)

As of January 2013's run rate, it takes GM 72 hours to sell that many cars. (2)

How about a comparable luxury target?

MB did 305,072 vehicles in 2012, so they do Tesla's sales every 2-weeks. (3)

Perfect comps? No way, but still . . .

To call Tesla an "early adopters" brand where you're going to run into some bullshit, is an under-statement.

I was considering a Model S as my next vehicle, and even if the NYT article is accurate that dissuades me zero percent. I get that this vehicle is going to have some problems - BUT IT'S ELECTRIC AND BIG AND SEXY AND FAST AND NOBODY ELSE HAS ONE!

But watching Musk's response to going full-Nerd-Nuclear (without CONCLUSIVE data) to trash a journalist and the institution of the NYT actually does give me pause in wanting to support that brand.

In other words, in my personal case (of one person, one piece of data) Musk is damaging Tesla's goodwill more than he's helping it.

(1) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S

(2) http://www.gm.com/content/gmcom/home/company/investors/sales...

(3) http://www.cleanmpg.com/forums/showthread.php?t=46221

Re: Elon Musk's Data Doesn't Back Up His Claims of New York Times Fakery

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're arguing a straw man point; while the speed difference may have contributed to the discharge, I don't believe anyone's arguing it made the difference.

Not really, if you look at Tesla's blog post, they even highlighted that went at 80mph for a while or once. Why did they do that? To prove that he didn't write a book (a story wouldn't fit it) and detail every speed he drove or because they speed matters?

Because of air drag which is proportional to the square of the velocity. At highway speeds, a large part of the energy consumed by the car to move at constant velocity is spent overcoming air drag. I think that's also why they are calling him out on going 60 mph on cruise control instead of stated 54 mph.

Re: Elon Musk's Data Doesn't Back Up His Claims of New York Times Fakery

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you (or 99% of HN) read the NYT article? "When I parked the car, its computer said I had 90 miles of range, twice the 46 miles back to Milford. It was a different story at 8:30 the next morning. The thermometer read 10 degrees and the display showed 25 miles of remaining range" "I called Tesla in California, and the official I woke up said I needed to “condition” the battery pack to restore the lost energy." Look…

Nobody is lying, but if you get in your car and it tells you that you can only you can only go 25 miles, do you really think it's ok to drive over twice that?

Of course it is. Stop at the gas station for five minutes, fill 'er up, and go on my way.

Re: Elon Musk's Data Doesn't Back Up His Claims of New York Times Fakery

#124

"Tesla Motors initially expected to sell at least 5,000 units in 2012 and set a sales target of 20,000." (1) As of January 2013's run rate, it takes GM 72 hours to sell that many cars. (2) How about a comparable luxury target? MB did 305,072 vehicles in 2012, so they do Tesla's sales every 2-weeks. (3) Perfect comps? No way, but still . . . To call Tesla an "early adopters" brand where you're going to run into some b…

I hope you're familiar with the costs of battery attrition which accompany owning a pure electric car.

Re: Elon Musk's Data Doesn't Back Up His Claims of New York Times Fakery

#125
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You haven't read the arguments carefully: If the car tells you it has half a tank left, and if you find out 10 miles later that the car is almost empty, who do you blame? Do you blame the driver for not having filled the tank or do you blame the car for potentially misreporting the levels? In context, I wonder if the data recorded by the tesla is indeed the same data reported on the dashboard. What would be cool and…

If you assume that at no point during the journey did the gauge correct itself, and that the reporter was right to just drive past fueling stations until he "had to be towed", then you assume the vehicle has serious operational problems. I will wait for more evidence before I believe that to be the case.

Here is my thought on the matter:

The reporter's behaviors are indeed consistent with what he claims he was told by Tesla when he called them during the journey. If the car manufacturer told me that regenerative braking can help extend the mileage, as dumb as it sounds I absolutely would repeatedly brake the car. I'm not an expert in electric vehicles, and if the company is telling me this is good for the car I wouldn't be in a position to refute it (especially under duress).

This is why I want to see the logs of the conversations. If the guy is running low, calls tesla and they say its not an issue, I can't blame him for malice. If he intentionally misdiagnosed the situation and presented it in a way that he would have received the advice he got, then we could blame him for malice (and it would be apparent from the log)

On the driver side, I'm surprised he didn't stop and take photos of the dashboard showing the range drop (especially if he thought it wasn't normal). I do this all the time (taking a picture of the dash, including odometer and fuel level) because I park in garages and I've noticed that, every once in a while, I'll come back and see the gas levels fall much more than expected.

Re: Elon Musk's Data Doesn't Back Up His Claims of New York Times Fakery

#126
post #50
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Go to a BMW dealership, take an M5 for a test drive, when the car says it was 32 miles left try to drive it 60. It's a 100k car and it won't make that feat either.

I mean, I've never driven a car with a digital gas meter before, but on all the cars I've driven they always have tens of miles when the gas light comes on. EDIT: To be clear, it is extremely stupid to do so.

All cars, including the Tesla, will run for awhile after the meter tells you "zero." But when you nonetheless run out of gas at some point after hitting that mark, you blame yourself not the car.

Re: Elon Musk's Data Doesn't Back Up His Claims of New York Times Fakery

#127
post #87
post #72

This whole controversy has been a little depressing to read...not that the Tesla vs. NYT discussions here have been worse than on other forums, but just because it shows how technical minded people are as easily swayed by preconceptions and alliances as more ostensibly non-scientific minds. How many words have been expended in the other HN thread to allege that Broder -- after most have already established that he is…

I've read all the arguments on both sides, and while both have made good points, there is one that stands out. This reporter clearly barely made any attempt at recharging his empty vehicle in Norwich, and then attempted a drive well beyond the car's capabilities, then made the "running out of fuel" his headline. If he would have done this on gasoline, the result would have been the same, and I think that is getting l…

Just for reference's sake:

> After making arrangements to recharge at the Norwich station, I located the proper adapter in the trunk, plugged in and walked to the only warm place nearby, Butch’s Luncheonette and Breakfast Club, an establishment (smoking allowed) where only members can buy a cup of coffee or a plate of eggs. But the owners let me wait there while the Model S drank its juice. Tesla’s experts said that pumping in a little energy would help restore the power lost overnight as a result of the cold weather, and after an hour they cleared me to resume the trip to Milford.

Looking back, I should have bought a membership to Butch’s and spent a few hours there while the car charged. The displayed range never reached the number of miles remaining to Milford, and as I limped along at about 45 miles per hour I saw increasingly dire dashboard warnings to recharge immediately. Mr. Merendino, the product planner, found an E.V. charging station about five miles away.

So if you read just Musk's piece, you get the perception that Broder lied about not knowing that he was under-juiced. To paraphrase:

Broder: "I should've stayed at the diner and charged for more hours"

Musk: "Broder is an idiot who should've stayed at the diner and charged for more hours"

OK, no argument there. But if Broder is trying to show what a lemon the Tesla is, he's sure doing about it at a roundabout way (which I guess I what we'd expect a well-heeled Big Oil secret agent to do).

So Broder is a professional journalist at the Times, but as far as I can tell, his role is to not describe what it's feels like to be a tech-expert who owns a Tesla. His scenario is not at all alien to anyone who's driven a gas-powered car and skipped "just one more" off-ramp even as the fuel meter hovers at 0.

Irresponsible? Sure. But this is how an average car owner might act. Not every car owner has, on a given day, the ability to wait around an extra hour after breakfast at a diner for the car to keep charging. If the charging stations are as commonplace as the map Musk produced indicates, then Broder may have thought (and misjudged) that he could make it to the next public station.

I think a passage from earlier in Broder's review is a good insight to what he was thinking:

> I drove a state-of-the-art electric vehicle past a lot of gas stations. I wasn’t smiling.

Instead, I spent nearly an hour at the Milford service plaza as the Tesla sucked electrons from the hitching post. When I continued my drive, the display read 185 miles, well beyond the distance I intended to cover before returning to the station the next morning for a recharge and returning to Manhattan.

The success of Tesla depends on the electric infrastructure improving dramatically. Until that comes about, there is apparently a lot of babying and thinking ahead that a Tesla owner has to do even when the car is running just fine.

I find it funny that so many people here are so quick to jump on Broder for not being so patient and tech savvy. While not everyone here is a huge Apple fan, I think most would laugh at a hardware manufacturer who delivered a high powered laptop that performed with variable results depending on the conditions of the day: it's powerful, and cutting edge, you'd just have to remember to plug it at night remember that the battery's decline won't be at a constant rate for more than the usual range of reasons.

It's not Tesla's fault that charging stations aren't ubiquitous, and Tesla deserves a lot of credit for trying to change it. And it's not Tesla's fault that people are sometimes dumb, impatient, and not constantly vigilant. But that's the reality of the market Tesla is selling its $100,000 vehicle for, and this is the market that the media writes for.

Re: Elon Musk's Data Doesn't Back Up His Claims of New York Times Fakery

#128

"Tesla Motors initially expected to sell at least 5,000 units in 2012 and set a sales target of 20,000." (1) As of January 2013's run rate, it takes GM 72 hours to sell that many cars. (2) How about a comparable luxury target? MB did 305,072 vehicles in 2012, so they do Tesla's sales every 2-weeks. (3) Perfect comps? No way, but still . . . To call Tesla an "early adopters" brand where you're going to run into some b…

I think a more apt comparison would be to Aston Martin as far as the target market.

Re: Elon Musk's Data Doesn't Back Up His Claims of New York Times Fakery

#129
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've read all the arguments on both sides, and while both have made good points, there is one that stands out. This reporter clearly barely made any attempt at recharging his empty vehicle in Norwich, and then attempted a drive well beyond the car's capabilities, then made the "running out of fuel" his headline. If he would have done this on gasoline, the result would have been the same, and I think that is getting l…

Did you (or 99% of HN) read the NYT article? "When I parked the car, its computer said I had 90 miles of range, twice the 46 miles back to Milford. It was a different story at 8:30 the next morning. The thermometer read 10 degrees and the display showed 25 miles of remaining range" "I called Tesla in California, and the official I woke up said I needed to “condition” the battery pack to restore the lost energy." Look…

You're missing a part of the article (that supports your point) - here's a paste of two paragraphs straight from the article

---

Tesla’s experts said that pumping in a little energy would help restore the power lost overnight as a result of the cold weather, and after an hour they cleared me to resume the trip to Milford.

Looking back, I should have bought a membership to Butch’s and spent a few hours there while the car charged. The displayed range never reached the number of miles remaining to Milford, and as I limped along at about 45 miles per hour I saw increasingly dire dashboard warnings to recharge immediately. Mr. Merendino, the product planner, found an E.V. charging station about five miles away.

---

He clearly states that the displayed range never reached the distance to Milford, and that he (essentially) ignored warnings to recharge. Nevertheless, the Tesla employee he spoke to cleared him to resume the journey.

There's a lot of nonsense being thrown around here, but THIS is where the stall occurred. It would be great to see a call log, if one was available - did Mr. Broder clearly state when he was cleared that the displayed range was not sufficient to meet Milford and did the Tesla employee clear him to go despite this? Was he cleared, with the Tesla employee assuming mileage was sufficient, and Mr. Broder chose not to correct this assumption?

I've seen a lot of people drive around with their 'check engine' light permanently lit up. This is because somebody told them it's ok, that it means their fuel cap is a little loose but it's not a problem, or whatever other reason that isn't serious. If the Tesla employee was aware of the displayed range and still cleared Mr. Broder's departure, then the 'correct' party in this case seems obvious, and his behavior is not in any way unusual.

Re: Elon Musk's Data Doesn't Back Up His Claims of New York Times Fakery

#130
I've got a stupid question. Why doesn't some impartial soul(s), try to recreate exact conditions as Broder describes them in the article? Tell Tesla what you will do, film your trip there. If their experience doesn't match Broder's they should just abuse the car until they recreate the exact condition Broder ended up.
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