Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012 • Hacker News Board

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#121

Post by dhimes » Sun, Dec 30, 2012, 2:38 PM UTC

Retric wrote: post #116

dhimes wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree on sci-fi, but medical imaging has really been born in the last 30 years and may prove to be a game-changer in diagnosis and localized treatments over the next 70. Also, the invention of PCR techniques allow much better testing and drug development. So I think we'll look back 70 years from now and make the same claim about medicine.

MRI's is another 'old' tech, and PCR is barely inside that 30 year window as it was developed in 1983. In 1952, Herman Carr produced a one-dimensional MRI image as reported in his Harvard PhD thesis. Meanwhile, Paul Lauterbur expanded on Carr's technique and developed a way to generate the first MRI images, in 2D and 3D, using gradients. In 1973, Lauterbur published the first nuclear magnetic resonance image.[25][26]…

I don't disagree that the foundations of this technology were laid earlier than 30 years ago (NMR->MRI); there was, of course, even other medical imaging long before that (x-rays, PET, etc). I still think that in 70 years we're going to be able to look at this 30 year span and say it was 'game-changing.' And 100 years from today "we'll" (you maybe- I'd be 150 years old!) look at the years 2010-2040 at "game changing."

Look at 1800-1830 from the point of view of 1900: steam engines.

Anyway, it's fun to think about.

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#122

Post by haberman » Sun, Dec 30, 2012, 4:37 PM UTC

panic wrote: post #81

pazimzadeh wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure? 23andme.com apparently does it for $100.

23andMe doesn't fully sequence your genes. They just look for specific patterns.

I think that's a misleading description. They do identify specific base pairs of your genotype (and you can download this data as a file), the difference is that they only identify a small subset of all base pairs, whereas sequencing identifies all of them.

More info: http://blog.23andme.com/23andme-research/23andme-moves-into-...

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#123

Post by redwood » Sun, Dec 30, 2012, 5:06 PM UTC

AlexeiSadeski wrote: post #93

redwood wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't you leaving out storm surge, which is just as much of a result of wind speed as it is of size... it was the surge that made Sandy at landfall truly unique.

Storm surge is related to intensity much more than size.

If that's the case, then why did sandy surge to a record?

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#124

Post by Klinky » Sun, Dec 30, 2012, 11:28 PM UTC

laughingstan wrote: post #62

mayneack wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every moment is the closest moment to date to the extinction of mankind.

Unfortunately...Humanity is furthering its technology for both it's survival, and its ultimate destruction. We are but a few years from seeing the truth behind the potential of autonomous robotics, machine-learning, and artificial intelligence. At that point, humanity will play very little role in the evolution of technology. :-\

A hundred years ago people were predicting we'd have robot butlers and flying cars. Those predicting autonomous killing robots enslaving the human race once we hit the "singularity" I think are going to be disappointed.

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#125

Post by dredmorbius » Mon, Dec 31, 2012, 8:02 AM UTC

mtts wrote: post #117

dredmorbius wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There were long periods of world history where growth and development were anything but exponential, and for significant periods were reversed. The period since the Italian Renaissance has been pretty spiffy though.

The period since the Italian Renaissance is actually more interesting than "pretty spiffy". While science improved by leaps and bounds, living conditions for ordinary people (in Europe) deteriorated quite significantly. Crop yields plummeted, leading to starvation, disease and decreasing populations all over Europe. Only in the 19th century did things improve again. The moral of the story being, I guess, that improve…

The foundations for the 19th Century improvements were established in the 14th century, and followed nearly ten centuries of stagnation and decline. The payoff wasn't instantaneous, but it was certainly cumulative.

Exponential, one might almost say.

Re: Futuristic Predictions That Came True in 2012

#126

Post by mtts » Mon, Dec 31, 2012, 12:31 PM UTC

dredmorbius wrote: post #125

mtts wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The period since the Italian Renaissance is actually more interesting than "pretty spiffy". While science improved by leaps and bounds, living conditions for ordinary people (in Europe) deteriorated quite significantly. Crop yields plummeted, leading to starvation, disease and decreasing populations all over Europe. Only in the 19th century did things improve again. The moral of the story being, I guess, that improve…

The foundations for the 19th Century improvements were established in the 14th century, and followed nearly ten centuries of stagnation and decline. The payoff wasn't instantaneous, but it was certainly cumulative. Exponential, one might almost say.

For the technical improvements, maybe, but for the improvements in living standards, not so much.

Living standards for commoners improved (vastly) during the 15th century, as a result of depopulation due to the Black Death in the 14th and the increased negotiating power of commoners that caused. Improved farming methods helped as well.

Unfortunately these improved living standards led to overpopulation and a subsequent decrease in living standards that only bottomed out during the late 17th century and that was exacerbated further by constant religious war and by climate change (the "little ice age"). Recovery was slow (partly because the "little ice age" lasted until the early 19th century) and only towards the end of that century do we find peasants better off than their 15th century forebears.

The evidence for this is in archives all over Europe and has been extensively written about by people like Emmanuel Le Roy Ladury. While the rich and educated were busy improving science and conquering the world, the poor suffered.