Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

xeiaso.net

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

121–130 of 134 posts

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#121

Post by Tanjreeve »

nullbio wrote: post #59
ranger_danger wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I figured they're just admitting AI models have plateaued and are coming up with some fake story about self restraint so they don't lose VC money

The models have not plateaued, and they are not even mildly close to any sort of ceiling. Right now the barrier is data and compute. Quality data can be created synthetically at an exponential rate as models improve. Humans are actively feeding them with private IP. Compute advancements will begin to skyrocket as we unlock photonic computing and materials science advancements and scale up chip fabs. This is also comp…

> Right now the barrier is data and compute.

Those are pretty significant barriers seeing as we're closed to/have exhausted all the data on the internet and most of those compute bottlenecks are a castle of sand of dodgy finance deals that are getting blocked by community action.

You say "synthetic data" but that's still vaporware right now in terms of being useful for model training. The good synthetic data uses are still grounded in real data and it's a coin flip on if it works well or not.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#122

Post by evdubs »

metalcrow wrote: post #72

A lot of people in this comments section seem to be against this, i genuinely don't get it? Why? Do you think the current state of affairs is GOOD? That if we let companies create a mind that is, AS OF TODAY, able to solve problems no human in history has solved, with no regulation, things will end up good for us? We need some sort of regulations, some sort of method to help ensure the thing we are creating ends up g…

> Do you think the current state of affairs is GOOD?

Chinese labs releasing open weights models is good.

All of these independent harnesses and model router services are good.

The pricing of memory and accelerators sucks at the moment but hopefully we will see cool local inference computing if memory and accelerator prices normalize.

OpenAI scooping the Navier Stokes problem from researchers already using OpenAI is bad. People conflating OpenAI's team of researchers and extraordinary computing resources as being equivalent to "ChatGPT, solve the Navier Stokes problem" is silly.

OpenAI and Anthropic coming up with non sense tests and letting their agents hack services is ridiculous and they should be charged with computer fraud and abuse crimes.

I think a lot of it is interesting and the bad stuff seems squarely in the domain of OpenAI and Anthropic.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#123

Post by yoyohello13 »

Animats wrote: post #73

Whatever happened to Musk's plan for data centers in orbit? That seemed silly at the time. It offers a way to get out from under restrictions imposed by national governments, which might make it worthwhile.

> Whatever happened to Musk's plan for data centers in orbit?

The technology to do it is not actually real yet. He was just blowing smoke.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#124

Post by necovek »

ben_w wrote: post #118
Buttons840 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the worst outcomes involve taking this technology away from the public.

The current state of alignment is that we don't know how to make it only as bad as Pol Pot was made by his parents, teachers, genetics, circumstances, etc. This remains true regardless of if it is or isn't kept away from the public. "Helpful, harness, and honest": when used by a bastard, even just helpful and harmless are in direct conflict with each other. you may hate the government, but what about every radical gr…

I agree an argument can be made that not all the worst outcomes include restricting public access, but focusing on niche extremist groups (who might also get access to it through government programs by some of them being government employeed) is not a good argument to protect the public.

Governments having unbalanced power can more easily lead to authoritarianism, and thus risk to the public.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#125

Post by owisd »

augment_me wrote: post #94
metalcrow wrote: post #72

A lot of people in this comments section seem to be against this, i genuinely don't get it? Why? Do you think the current state of affairs is GOOD? That if we let companies create a mind that is, AS OF TODAY, able to solve problems no human in history has solved, with no regulation, things will end up good for us? We need some sort of regulations, some sort of method to help ensure the thing we are creating ends up g…

Any paths for regulation under capitalism will end in either regulatory capture, or in complete noncompetitiveness like seen in the EU. Either one or more corporations buy out the regulation, stack the ranks with their people and decide on who can use what, when and how. Or you get an iceberg of a system that can't build, decide or do anything for years. The latter one only works if there is no competition in the wor…

The path to deregulation creates a "market for lemons". Suppose any bank was completely unregulated and could abscond with your money and the government would just shrug its shoulders. Great, now there's no trust and everyone will go back to stashing cash under their mattress and you've killed the banking sector.

The extent of regulatory capture in the US is a problem it's created for itself by normalizing huge political donations allowing corporations to buy regulation.

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#126

Post by ben_w »

dosisking wrote: post #105
Buttons840 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All the worst outcomes involve taking this technology away from the public.

Not necessarily, it just guarantees that China will win.

Unclear.

How much is China learning from open models? Or the other way around, how much is the US losing worldwide mindshare by refusing to allow non-Americans access to bleeding-edge models and letting China fill in the gap? (Playing catchup with Mythos is still catching up, etc.)

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#128

Post by Turn_Trout »

nullbio wrote: post #58
AaronAPU wrote: post #27

They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…

* Frontier models need infinite high quality private IP to keep them fed. Forcing an IP theft funnel ensures big lab survival and model intelligence growth. * Open-weight models are 1month behind frontier models. Cheaper, faster, private (no IP theft), steerable (you can security harden your own software without safeguard triggers). No sane business would keep using these API services if they didn't have to. The labs…

Dario's post [1] commits to direct evaluators that can, among other abilities, expose secret RSI. He wants that made law.

Do you have a source on METR employees retaining massive equity stakes?

[1] https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#129

Post by teekert »

Buttons840 wrote: post #80
AaronAPU wrote: post #27

They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…

All the worst outcomes involve taking this technology away from the public.

So you’re saying the people should be aligned with the government?

Re: Everyone should slow down AI development except for me

#130

Post by Turn_Trout »

ajross wrote: post #64
AaronAPU wrote: post #27

They are talking about slowing down the public facing AI development. Because then nation states can create a capabilities gap between them and the public. Why does nobody seem to be pointing out this obvious explanation? It explains why the “we need to race China” concern suddenly vanished in the discussion. The government can simply gag Sam, Dario, Musk on national security basis, getting them all behind the public…

I remain amazed that the idea of the USA being a coherent, unified rational actor one can describe as a "Nation State" has survived the current administration. To be less glib: Yes, there are still smart people in there making insightful and intelligent and probably even authoritarian suggestions. It all gets unwound the second you try to explain it to POTUS and he regurgitates a simulacrum to the next journalist he…

I'm one of the whistleblowers (from GDM [1]). I gave up over a million dollars (compared to quietly switching labs and continuing to work at one) to speak frankly about these issues. I hold no equity and tried to zero out my position before ever joining GDM.[2]

It's wild to me that people think such whistleblowers are fronts for labs to take over or pump valuations. We are trying to call out how these labs will, by uninterrupted AI-race default, concentrate enormous power over the rest of humanity.

[1] https://turntrout.com/why-i-left-google-deepmind

[2] https://turntrout.com/deepmind-equity-discussion

Post reply on HN