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Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

arstechnica.com

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Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#121

Post by defrost »

tristanj wrote: post #120
defrost wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Near a school and "allegedly" Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense stated that four Iranian drones attacked Nakhchivan, one of which was neutralized by the Azerbaijani army while others targeted civilian infrastructure. One drone fell on the terminal building of Nakhchivan International Airport, while another landed near a school building in the village of Shakarabad, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerb…

You addressed one item from a list of ten examples. Why ignore the rest of the list? Dubai airport was struck four or five times. Qatar's LNG facilities. Kuwait's desalination plants. Bahrain's bridges. Saudi pumping stations. UAE power plants. Oman oil storage. You haven't mentioned any of these. Back to Azerbaijan - your own explanation convicts Iran. Claiming the strikes were due to "bad intel about an anti Iran m…

There were two sentences. I looked into the second sentence.

It's the more interesting case precisely because it was an outlier with no US bases, US assests, et al.

> your own explanation convicts Iran.

Not my explanation, see the linked discussion.

> ... do you believe them? Are you that gullible?

Tell me more about when you stopped beating your wife.

> then the next day Iran fired another volley of drones at Oman.

I believe I looked into Azerbaijan which may have been hit by an independent IRG cell, IIRC Oman is an entire other country.

> Furthermore, your "false flag theory" is flawed.

Not my theory - see the linked discussion.

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#122

Post by tristanj »

defrost wrote: post #121
tristanj wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You addressed one item from a list of ten examples. Why ignore the rest of the list? Dubai airport was struck four or five times. Qatar's LNG facilities. Kuwait's desalination plants. Bahrain's bridges. Saudi pumping stations. UAE power plants. Oman oil storage. You haven't mentioned any of these. Back to Azerbaijan - your own explanation convicts Iran. Claiming the strikes were due to "bad intel about an anti Iran m…

There were two sentences. I looked into the second sentence. It's the more interesting case precisely because it was an outlier with no US bases, US assests, et al. > your own explanation convicts Iran. Not my explanation, see the linked discussion. > ... do you believe them? Are you that gullible? Tell me more about when you stopped beating your wife. > then the next day Iran fired another volley of drones at Oman.…

[dead]

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#123

Post by brokenmachine »

defrost wrote: post #116
brokenmachine wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please look up the difference between losing and loosing. Call me pedantic but it just makes it unpleasant to read.

You should assume that a 13 year HN veteran likely knows the difference, is human, and had a mild bout of misfiring fingers. Small beer in the greater scheme ... and unable to be edited / corrected by the user in question some 12 hours after the comment. If you're realy that upsit, cun I seggust you emraile HN @ Ycombingnater and ask for a m0d to intravein?

OP used the wrong "lose" in two separate comments in the same discussion. That's why no, I don't think the 13 years was enough time. But there's no shame in that, nobody knows everything.

I'm not aware of how long anyone has been on HN, bar a very small number of users. Who can be bothered to check histories for everyone you comment to?

Fair point about not being able to edit.

>If you're realy that upsit

Thank you for using the correct "you're". :)

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#124

Post by zzrrt »

tristanj wrote: post #39
orwin wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the US fired missiles from other countries? It's not a game of mounted tag.

Do you believe Iran should not be prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons? Why do you think this entire conflict started?

I don't think it's that simple. If it was, why hasn't the administration managed to focus on that? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationale_for_the_2026_Iran_wa... And your own comments say they also have a large arsenal of conventional weapons, so presumably they would be a threat without nukes. And the US already claimed to have fixed the nuclear problem last year.

And they torched JCPOA – even with your arguments it was weak, it appears to have been more effective than doing nothing for years and then spending billions to stop them when they, completely foreseeably, stop following an agreement that the US broke first. https://armscontrolcenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Ira...

I'm rambling and don't know all that much, so to the point of your question: the conflict started because Trump and his people wanted to, and it feels sort of pointlessly speculative and hopeful to ascribe your own interpretations beyond that.

I guess we'll see, if it really ends, and what the new regime, sanctions, nuclear enforcement, etc look like. If there are any career bureaucrats left, maybe they'll pull off something good.

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#125

Post by tristanj »

inglor_cz wrote: post #89
tristanj wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US has a straightforward option to "win" the war via a ground invasion. First, a large scale bombing campaign, targeting Iranian infrastructure. Dropping bombs on every power substation, fuel plant, and generation plant would cripple the economy, and grind the country to a halt. A similar strategy was applied to Japan and Germany in WWII. If these facilities have military purpose, destroying these facilities is n…

There is nothing straightforward about the option you describe. The necessary buildup would take several months and would happen within range of Iranian drones. Neither Iraq nor Pakistan seem to be particularly likely to grant a permission to the US to stage a large-scale land operation against Iran from their own territory. Both have large populations partly sympathetic to the mullahs, the political destabilization…

You misunderstand. You underestimate the depth of the campaign. The strategy calls for a total dismantling of Iran's infrastructure, including oil generation, fuel processing, electrical generation, and industrial capacity. Similar how the allies won WWII against Germany and Japan by destroying their industrial capacity.

Iran would be paralyzed without fuel and electricity, GDP would collapse by 90%, and within days, there would be large social unrest. The IRGC would be too distracted managing unrest to mount a concerted response.

The US and allies would spend the next few weeks amassing forces, then would invade along multiple axises (from the east and west). Pakistan would join the war, as it is obligated under the Saudi/Pakistani mutual self-defense treaty.

Forces would then remove the nuclear material, clean up Iranian missiles that target ships in the strait, and the US would leave.

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#126

Post by zzrrt »

tristanj wrote: post #109
rbanffy wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It started because Trump abandoned the agreement Obama signed and that was working, then sanctioned Iran for no good reason. At this point, every country with the ability to do so should be procuring nuclear deterrence capability, if for no other reason than to defend themselves from the US.

You dodged the question: JCOPA happened because Iran was developing nuclear weapons. If Iran wasn't pursuing nukes, there would be no JCOPA. Why should Iran be allowed to develop nuclear weapons in the first place?

Weird response that does some dodging of its own. Anyone defending JCPOA is obviously in favor of controlling nukes, so why don't you explain more than restating what we already agree with?

You're going to have to specifically address why ending the program with no replacement was better than letting it continue. Your other comments about cost, lack of conventional weapon limits, and perverse incentives for other countries doesn't do much for me. (For one thing, other countries aren't very relevant to this discussion, unless the cost of paying them off were to actually become prohibitive.) It was something, it had some positive effect on the "Iran can't have nukes" you keep harping on, and it was replaced with nothing but sanctions. Why wouldn't they resume development?

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#127

Post by tristanj »

zzrrt wrote: post #126
tristanj wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You dodged the question: JCOPA happened because Iran was developing nuclear weapons. If Iran wasn't pursuing nukes, there would be no JCOPA. Why should Iran be allowed to develop nuclear weapons in the first place?

Weird response that does some dodging of its own. Anyone defending JCPOA is obviously in favor of controlling nukes, so why don't you explain more than restating what we already agree with? You're going to have to specifically address why ending the program with no replacement was better than letting it continue. Your other comments about cost, lack of conventional weapon limits, and perverse incentives for other cou…

Rubio's response to JCPOA in 2015 is prescient https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5dQIVh_QT4 . Everything foretold in his speech has happened.

Continued sanctions were a viable answer, the reason they failed is because Biden relaxed them at the beginning of his term, allowing Iran to resume oil sales and he also paid Iran $5B in exchange for hostages.

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#128

Post by Hikikomori »

tristanj wrote: post #107
Hikikomori wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "reason" for this war was created by Trump in 2017 when the US left the agreement with Iran, while US intelligence agencies all testified to congress Iran was following the agreement and was not working towards a bomb. Then US imposed sanctions and Iran eventually started enrichment again. Such a dumb lie.

JCPOA was a terribly designed deal, it never addressed the Iranian missile issue, which is arguably just as bad the Iranian nuclear issue. While following JCPOA, Iran decided to build tens of thousands of conventional missiles and drones instead. Enough to swarm and overwhelm air defense systems. 1000 conventional missiles cause as much infrastructure damage as a single nuclear warhead. Iran basically bypassed JCPOA,…

Yeah you got me, Obama didn't solve everything in a first step of diplomacy in a 100+ year history of the west fucking over this country. Clearly the only solution is to keep attacking them because it has worked so well before. And keep letting the colonial project of Israel terrorize their neighbors. It's the only viable solution.

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#129

Post by tristanj »

zzrrt wrote: post #124
tristanj wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you believe Iran should not be prevented from acquiring nuclear weapons? Why do you think this entire conflict started?

I don't think it's that simple. If it was, why hasn't the administration managed to focus on that? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationale_for_the_2026_Iran_wa... And your own comments say they also have a large arsenal of conventional weapons, so presumably they would be a threat without nukes. And the US already claimed to have fixed the nuclear problem last year. And they torched JCPOA – even with your arguments i…

The nuclear problem was never fixed; the nuclear material is still in Iran, and during the months since June 2025 Iran has had adequate time to dig out the buried fuel and move it to a more secure location.

The reason JCPOA got torched was because documents stolen by Mossad revealed Iran was caught systematically lying to the IAEA about the depth of its nuclear weapons program for decades. Iran operated multiple sites that Iran denied existed to the IAEA.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_infiltration_of_an_Ira...

Re: Cheap Iranian drone downed $25M US Army helicopter–maybe by chance

#130

Post by bigyabai »

tristanj wrote: post #125
inglor_cz wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is nothing straightforward about the option you describe. The necessary buildup would take several months and would happen within range of Iranian drones. Neither Iraq nor Pakistan seem to be particularly likely to grant a permission to the US to stage a large-scale land operation against Iran from their own territory. Both have large populations partly sympathetic to the mullahs, the political destabilization…

You misunderstand. You underestimate the depth of the campaign. The strategy calls for a total dismantling of Iran's infrastructure, including oil generation, fuel processing, electrical generation, and industrial capacity. Similar how the allies won WWII against Germany and Japan by destroying their industrial capacity. Iran would be paralyzed without fuel and electricity, GDP would collapse by 90%, and within days,…

If that strategy was the only strategy, then it would have already been done, there would be no desire for diplomatic resolution here. Optics-wise, banking on social unrest has failed, and if the US escalates it to a Dresden situation then the Gulf States will have their own critical services attacked in reprisal. Part of the reason why we're even seeing negotiations is because the US has no free win button. The escalation ladder is still wide open for both sides.

It doesn't take a four star general to understand why a ground invasion sucks. By the time Marines land in Bandar Abbas, the HEU is halfway to an underground vault in Magnitogorsk. The remaining job of securing UF6 rubble, locating spare centrifuges and dismantling their enrichment loop is pointless. There is no option to "remove the nuclear material" that reasonably deters Iran from attaining nuclear weapons. The JCPOA was a more workable framework than this blockade has proven to be.

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