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The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

montanaskeptic.substack.com

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Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#121

Post by Pooge »

l23k4 wrote: post #73
Pooge wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? Absolutely not. They are doing what the President is telling them to do. The customers of indexes are providers of funds (Vanguard, BlackRock, ...). In turn, people like you and me are clients of those providers. Indexes are changing the rules thanks to lobbies by the world's richest people so they can get even richer by dumping their overvalued stocks. If you are not a SpaceX investor, you are losing money. In…

>What? Absolutely not. They are doing what the President is telling them to do. This is a paranoid delusion. These rules were never on particularly solid ground, it's only natural to see them gone when you have significant upcoming IPOs changing the structure of the market. It is the job of these indices to keep up with that.

I'm sorry but you're very naive. The rules were changed because it was advantageous to SpaceX and the richest man on Earth.

Those rules were implemented to protect the index from being skewed when an IPO happens because the IPO is exactly the moment where the stock may be overvalued and very volatile (compared to all the other stocks that are in the index). We especially don't know at IPO time if the company is changing the structure of the market because it's too soon. And in fact, we won't know for a couple more weeks or even years; but by that time the price will have stabilized.

The index is supposed to be slow at rebalancing to minimize costs and make it practical for providers as well.

And as I write this comment, I've just read that they cancelled the changes[1]. Which completely proves your last sentence wrong.

[1]: https://press.spglobal.com/2026-06-04-S-P-Dow-Jones-Indices-...

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#122

Post by l23k4 »

orwin wrote: post #118
l23k4 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the Nasdaq-100 lol who cares? Are you buying it? It is literally just an arbitrary bucket of stocks.

That's just deflection to avoid answering. I wonder if it's a product of cognitive dissonance or if it's voluntary.

It's perfectly legitimate for me to reject outright the idea that anything Nasdaq-100 does matters.

Why do you think anything that Nasdaq-100 does would matter?

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#124

Post by l23k4 »

Pooge wrote: post #121
l23k4 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What? Absolutely not. They are doing what the President is telling them to do. This is a paranoid delusion. These rules were never on particularly solid ground, it's only natural to see them gone when you have significant upcoming IPOs changing the structure of the market. It is the job of these indices to keep up with that.

I'm sorry but you're very naive. The rules were changed because it was advantageous to SpaceX and the richest man on Earth. Those rules were implemented to protect the index from being skewed when an IPO happens because the IPO is exactly the moment where the stock may be overvalued and very volatile (compared to all the other stocks that are in the index). We especially don't know at IPO time if the company is chang…

>I'm sorry but you're very naive. The rules were changed because it was advantageous to SpaceX and the richest man on Earth.

The rules were changed in the mid-90s because of a significant amount of big IPOs which did not have a reasonable path to profitability. That's not even close to the situation we're in right now. Both OpenAI and Anthropic are clearly solid businesses.

> We especially don't know at IPO time if the company is changing the structure of the market because it's too soon. And in fact, we won't know for a couple more weeks or even years; but by that time the price will have stabilized.

This is largely magical thinking. How many more weeks should I wait before $TSLA will stabilize?

>And as I write this comment, I've just read that they cancelled the changes[1]. Which completely proves your last sentence wrong.

Or maybe deranged Americans just turned this non-political issue into a political one, and S&P global thought this was not a hill worth literally getting shot in their office for? I don't know, that'd certainly be my primary concern in their place. Wouldn't it be yours?

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#125

Post by Pooge »

l23k4 wrote: post #124
Pooge wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry but you're very naive. The rules were changed because it was advantageous to SpaceX and the richest man on Earth. Those rules were implemented to protect the index from being skewed when an IPO happens because the IPO is exactly the moment where the stock may be overvalued and very volatile (compared to all the other stocks that are in the index). We especially don't know at IPO time if the company is chang…

>I'm sorry but you're very naive. The rules were changed because it was advantageous to SpaceX and the richest man on Earth. The rules were changed in the mid-90s because of a significant amount of big IPOs which did not have a reasonable path to profitability. That's not even close to the situation we're in right now. Both OpenAI and Anthropic are clearly solid businesses. > We especially don't know at IPO time if t…

> The rules were changed in the mid-90s because of a significant amount of big IPOs which did not have a reasonable path to profitability.

Could you give me a link to read up on that?

> Both OpenAI and Anthropic are clearly solid businesses

Maybe you're an insider so you have more information than me; I'm not so I don't know.

> How many more weeks should I wait before $TSLA will stabilize?

TSLA is mature enough since their IPO to be included in an index.

> Or maybe deranged Americans just turned this non-political issue into a political one, and S&P global thought this was not a hill worth literally getting shot in their office for?

No, it's probably because major fund providers and other market participants (including retail) saw through the subterfuge. Indexes and providers and retail investors have nothing to gain from the former proposed changes. It was very obviously a play by SpaceX to force passive investors to buy into the stock, therefore pumping the price up.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#126

Post by jjav »

henry2023 wrote: post #17

It's hard to know if SpaceX will flop in a week or in a decade but what I'm pretty confident on is a lot of retail capital allocated in Tesla will be redistributed to SpaceX. So my trade on IPO day will be long $X SpaceX, short $X Tesla. Wait 1 month. Wish me luck.

> So my trade on IPO day will be long $X SpaceX, short $X Tesla. Wait 1 month. Wish me luck.

Risky, IMO. I've been closing my TSLA shorts because I think he'll just use spacex stock to buy tsla at a very overvalued price, just to wipe out all the shorts.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#127

Post by pjjpo »

riv991 wrote: post #8

I liked Matt Levine's take in his latest podcast. You buy an index because you want to own the market. If you want to own the market in 2026 you want to own SpaceX and Anthropic, and probably OpenAI too. That said, if you think this is as bad as the article claims you'll obviously buy SpaceX at IPO, then sell it when Index funds are obligated to buy.

I want to buy an index with generally fixed rules. I don't know enough of the topic to know how bad it is but if Nasdaq is literally manually tweaking SpaceX's weight, just because? Then it's not buying the market.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#128

Post by zygology »

satvikpendem wrote: post #50
dozerly wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, they were overvalued in those days as well. Just because the on-paper value went up doesn’t make their statements false, it just means we’ve continued the charade.

Or maybe that's just what value is, what someone else would pay for something.

and it turns out people can be convinced to overpay for hot air and "futurism"

does that make it truly valuable?

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#129

Post by zygology »

riv991 wrote: post #8

I liked Matt Levine's take in his latest podcast. You buy an index because you want to own the market. If you want to own the market in 2026 you want to own SpaceX and Anthropic, and probably OpenAI too. That said, if you think this is as bad as the article claims you'll obviously buy SpaceX at IPO, then sell it when Index funds are obligated to buy.

why would i want to take ownership in something that very clearly looks like a scam on paper.

this IPO is to pay debts for failing tech.

Re: The SpaceX IPO will be the theft of the century

#130

Post by henry2023 »

jjav wrote: post #126
henry2023 wrote: post #17

It's hard to know if SpaceX will flop in a week or in a decade but what I'm pretty confident on is a lot of retail capital allocated in Tesla will be redistributed to SpaceX. So my trade on IPO day will be long $X SpaceX, short $X Tesla. Wait 1 month. Wish me luck.

> So my trade on IPO day will be long $X SpaceX, short $X Tesla. Wait 1 month. Wish me luck. Risky, IMO. I've been closing my TSLA shorts because I think he'll just use spacex stock to buy tsla at a very overvalued price, just to wipe out all the shorts.

Fair, but Tesla is valued at 1.6T while SpaceX is going to start at 1.75T.

If SpaceX ever has the ability to buy Tesla in an all Stock deal at a high Tesla price then SpaceX would need to expand faster than Tesla which is precisely my trade.

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