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Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

businessinsider.com

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Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#121

Post by bdcravens »

pu_pe wrote: post #11

The stock market doesn't operate on long-term principles anymore. So, in some sense, it is immaterial that the rosy scenarios where AI is responsible for >$30 trillion in the next decade are unlikely. If you bet against the hype and it goes on for a few more months/years you lose as much or more than if you went along for the ride. Burry is well aware of this, he has written about how passive investing is contributin…

> The stock market doesn't operate on long-term principles anymore

by "anymore" I assume you mean for a few decades now

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#122

Post by bdcravens »

A_D_E_P_T wrote: post #27
pu_pe wrote: post #11

The stock market doesn't operate on long-term principles anymore. So, in some sense, it is immaterial that the rosy scenarios where AI is responsible for >$30 trillion in the next decade are unlikely. If you bet against the hype and it goes on for a few more months/years you lose as much or more than if you went along for the ride. Burry is well aware of this, he has written about how passive investing is contributin…

> The stock market doesn't operate on long-term principles anymore. It has been broken since ~2008 (ZIRPs, etc.) and has really gone off the rails since BTC and memestocks have taken off. Now everything's a memestock. It's all vibes-based.

Honestly you can go back much further than that. Every few years it's broken for different reasons, but the exuberance is irrational all the same.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#123

Post by kamaal »

pu_pe wrote: post #11

The stock market doesn't operate on long-term principles anymore. So, in some sense, it is immaterial that the rosy scenarios where AI is responsible for >$30 trillion in the next decade are unlikely. If you bet against the hype and it goes on for a few more months/years you lose as much or more than if you went along for the ride. Burry is well aware of this, he has written about how passive investing is contributin…

>>The stock market doesn't operate on long-term principles anymore.

Nah, it might appear so, but the moment of reckoning always arrives, always. Like eventually, it arrives.

Its a different argument, that most people themselves are not long-term investors, in that case of course, such a thing doesn't even apply to you.

I think Fidelity did some research that the most profitable accounts belonged to dead people. The proven formula is to pick the best stocks out there, pyramid upwards and be patient.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#124

Post by jklowden »

jansan wrote: post #20

The real question is how we are defining "worth." Much of the market has decoupled from traditional fundamental data, with Tesla's P/E of 380 illustrating this perfectly, but the Tesla stock price refuses to collapse. We all know the market can stay irrational much longer than you can stay solvent if you bet against it. If you watched "The Long Short" (excellent movie btw.) you know how close Michael Burry came to ca…

Exactly. Anthropic has been losing three-comma money until recently. In Q2 2026 it earned a profit for the first time, about $500 million. If we imagine they will earn $2 billion in 2026, that’s a 0.2% return on the $1 trillion investment.

To believe the valuation, Anthropic earnings need to grow 100x. For a more likely outcome, I can recommend a bridge in Brooklyn.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#125

Post by panarky »

heisgone wrote: post #113
WinstonSmith84 wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you bet against the hype and it goes on for a few more months/years you lose as much or more than if you went along for the ride. > Burry is well aware of this ... Well, no he isn't well aware of this, apparently. He's been right in 2008 but he has been spectacularly wrong for the last 5 to 10 years, like shorting Tesla or Nvidia at the worst possible moments - and eventually closing his hedge fund...

He was wrong about the timing of the bubble popping and might well still be too early, as passive investing might allow for the market to keep inflating for many years to come. Mike Green explaining it better, about how mathematically, there is an inflexion point where if x% of investment is passive, it could make the whole system unstable (I don't remember the specific number) and crash, but until then, it will keep…

"As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance."

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#126

Post by Haven880 »

WinstonSmith84 wrote: post #66
pu_pe wrote: post #11

The stock market doesn't operate on long-term principles anymore. So, in some sense, it is immaterial that the rosy scenarios where AI is responsible for >$30 trillion in the next decade are unlikely. If you bet against the hype and it goes on for a few more months/years you lose as much or more than if you went along for the ride. Burry is well aware of this, he has written about how passive investing is contributin…

> If you bet against the hype and it goes on for a few more months/years you lose as much or more than if you went along for the ride. > Burry is well aware of this ... Well, no he isn't well aware of this, apparently. He's been right in 2008 but he has been spectacularly wrong for the last 5 to 10 years, like shorting Tesla or Nvidia at the worst possible moments - and eventually closing his hedge fund...

He didn't realized that speculating stocks allowed by Fed and both parties. The vast majority money needed to prop up American economy right now (or in the last 10 years) have nothing to do with econ 101. It is purely money printing at its finest making Japanese banana money and Germans look amateurish. Fed now basically print money to bank and directed bank to buy stocks and loans as they like to certain orgs and individuals. Any short selling or whistleblowers suicided.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#127

Post by panarky »

tristanj wrote: post #109
bumby wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate on how passive investing contributes to this?

Passive investing funnels money into the market without accounting for business fundamentals. It simply allocates funding by looking at sector and market cap. It's the definition of dumb money. As long as companies can make it into the index, passive investors will funnel money into buying stock of these companies, no matter how badly these companies are run.

Doesn't that passive process reverse at some point?

The trillions that mechanically and automatically flowed into index funds in pensions and 401k accounts must mechanically and automatically flow right back out after retirement, right?

Especially when younger generations are too poor to save for retirement and most companies don't offer pensions to younger workers any more, where will the inflows come from to offset the outflows?

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#128

Post by IAmBroom »

Haven880 wrote: post #126
WinstonSmith84 wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If you bet against the hype and it goes on for a few more months/years you lose as much or more than if you went along for the ride. > Burry is well aware of this ... Well, no he isn't well aware of this, apparently. He's been right in 2008 but he has been spectacularly wrong for the last 5 to 10 years, like shorting Tesla or Nvidia at the worst possible moments - and eventually closing his hedge fund...

He didn't realized that speculating stocks allowed by Fed and both parties. The vast majority money needed to prop up American economy right now (or in the last 10 years) have nothing to do with econ 101. It is purely money printing at its finest making Japanese banana money and Germans look amateurish. Fed now basically print money to bank and directed bank to buy stocks and loans as they like to certain orgs and in…

Outlandish claims require substantial citations.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#129

Post by kkkqkqkqkqlqlql »

schonfinkel wrote: post #24
pjmlp wrote: post #23

Of course not, this is pure speculation just like in past cycles, until it goes bum.

And this time the boooom has a larger blast radius than all the previous booooms combined.

You know, like all the other booms.

Re: Michael Burry says neither SpaceX nor Anthropic is worth $1T

#130

Post by IAmBroom »

abirch wrote: post #31
schonfinkel wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And this time the boooom has a larger blast radius than all the previous booooms combined.

The largest so far. We have always been in a boom/ bust cycle. The difference is that they are coming faster and faster. I need to figure out the next one. The famous quote, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent," is widely attributed to the renowned British economist John Maynard Keynes 1883-1946

> I need to figure out the next one.

The date is hidden in the last 8 digits of pi. Should be a snap for a smart person like you.

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