Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions • Hacker News Board

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#121

Post by gxs » Thu, May 28, 2026, 10:53 PM UTC

watwut wrote: post #101

gxs wrote: post #92

One of the things missed with AI is that it’s enabled people to do more - either by augmenting skill sets or augmenting bandwidth In my own circles this has led to more work not less Expectations are higher, SLAs are tighter. Which makes sense - if a company can mine more gold with less works, they aren’t going to retire workers they will ask for even more gold Managers are coding again, analysts are expected to writ…

It does not make sense. If you have tool that makes you more productive and somehow end up overworked, it is not because of the tool. It is deliberate decision of the management. More productivity could mean more earning for the company. It could mean people getting kind of bored as work dries out. What you describe is normal push beyond possible with predictable longer term results.

Yeah I purposely didn’t get into the right or not - it’s just how I’m seeing things evolve in “real time”

A big part of it is that people feel like they are drinking from a firehouse having to learn to use ai (which is not always just a prompt) and having to leverage it effectively at the same time for real product/business work

I suspect this will settle down at some point too

One other observation I’ve seen: the makeup of a team that can leverage ai is turning out to be different than the make up of the usual high performing Eng team we think about

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#122

Post by _bypa » Thu, May 28, 2026, 10:54 PM UTC

guluarte wrote: post #111

I don't know if anyone else feels the same but for me, the more productive LLMs become, the more work I have.

That's why executives are pushing for LLMs everywhere in businesses: to ensure the floor goes up for everyone. A few productive stars who don't alter the expectations baseline for everyone. That way, all need to work harder, so the execs get to pocket the benefits.

Whether AI actually makes people more productive is irrelevant: you just declare that people need to do more for the same amount of money and in the same amount of time, and employees have to scramble. Just dangle that carrot a little further out so the donkeys work harder.

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#123

Post by amanaplanacanal » Thu, May 28, 2026, 10:56 PM UTC

tunesmith wrote: post #99

datakan wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It tells you a lot about your execs and how little they care, either for their employees or their customers. The quarterly profits are their God and they will worship at the altar of the stock price. Instead of finding ways to make AI enhance their employees and make them more productive, they immediately jump to ways to eliminate employees. It's the opposite of a growth mentallity. I'd love for these executives to s…

I think there's something else psychological going on. What you describe is a rational approach based off of bad values. But I think I'm also seeing something weirdly irrational. It's like an (emotional) depression or something. Scarcity thinking, the inability to think expansively. People are so sure that everything around them is shrinking that they feel an instinct to hunker down, shrink, and cut as well. Like it…

They can feel the contraction coming. They don't know how bad it is going to be. They don't know if their own jobs will survive.

I don't think it's irrational.

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#124

Post by frays » Thu, May 28, 2026, 11:05 PM UTC

papichulo2023 wrote: post #3

It is kinda funny the irony of going from "we are going to replace devs" to "we <3 devs, keep burning those tokens"

> the irony of going from "we are going to replace devs" to "we This is so true. Nicely put.

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#125

Post by ViktorRay » Thu, May 28, 2026, 11:06 PM UTC

The Industrial Revolution led to a substantial decrease in agricultural jobs for humanity. But ultimately there were new jobs created.

This happens with every technological innovation. It’s called creative destruction. The idea that some technology will lead to mass unemployment and then some kind of revolution…that is a myth that’s been around since Marx. Actually even before him.

I predict the same thing will happen. Some jobs will go away. Others will take their place. The people of the 1700’s and 1800’s couldn’t have even begun to imagine the kinds of jobs many do today.

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#126

Post by spprashant » Thu, May 28, 2026, 11:06 PM UTC

simonw wrote: post #106

spprashant wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. With Altman at least it seems he is making the pivot because he thinks its better messaging. Amodei is just re-framing what he actually sees as the endgame here. He says 10x productivity, he means 10x less jobs.

I would hope that if Sam was making a deliberate pivot here he might use a slightly bigger platform to do so than a conversation with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia conference.

[dead]

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#127

Post by Animats » Thu, May 28, 2026, 11:06 PM UTC

aresant wrote: post #66

This is an absolutely classic PR "submarine" effort to reframe the impact of AI Paul Graham has mandatory essay on this - https://www.paulgraham.com/submarine.html (1) More than 50% of Americans at this point are more concerned about AI than excited for it - https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/03/12/key-findi... (2) Popular media is feeding into this zeitgeist with headlines like - "Prepare for an AI jobs ap…

Right, as noted above, last week The Economist finally said it's real. That's a reversal from their previous position. The Economist likes to look at actuals, which always trail real time, rather than projections. Now they can see it happening in past data.

AI deployment is going much faster than previous industrial revolutions, such as railroads and tractors and even computers. When these things take a generation, they get absorbed. When they take less time than a college education, there's a big jobs problem.

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#128

Post by kingleopold » Thu, May 28, 2026, 11:10 PM UTC

analogpixel wrote: post #16

iammjm wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s the Elon Musk spirit!

These Ai's will be full self driving next year.

These Ai's will create datacenter in space and mars, and then dyson sphere in next decade.

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#129

Post by pbohun » Thu, May 28, 2026, 11:13 PM UTC

jijijijij wrote: post #85

iwontberude wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Millions of Nvidia GPUs are stranded in warehouses right now with nowhere to be installed and some will be deprecated in less than a year. Good thing Micron and everyone in the supply chain is scaling up to make millions more... I am sure this will work out fine when they write down all of the inventory which is too old to install

Are you telling me I only have to wait just a little longer and the GPU are going to be really, really cheap?

No, the GPUs used in AI data centers don't have the capability to do normal graphics. They're completely useless for games and content creation. Additionally, B200s can consume up to 14kW of power. There are no consumer power supplies that could power such a thing.

The sad thing is all that silicon will basically be worthless.

Re: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both walking back AI jobs apocalypse predictions

#130

Post by [deleted] » Thu, May 28, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC

pydry wrote: post #114

fg3fg wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Earnings growth, cash flows and valuation. Thats all the management at firms care about. Sorry for all the dev's here who rant about productivity gains but forget what matters to who employs them in the first place!

Not true at all. They do care about what's fashionable and right now what is fashionable is AI. Just because they're in charge of multi billion dollar corporations doesn't mean that they don't get distracted by shiny baubles like a 3 year old or that they don't feel the pressure of being "cool" like a teenager. They're not LLMs.

[deleted]