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AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

joshwcomeau.com

121–130 of 344 posts

Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

#121
The more time I spend accelerating my work with AI tools the more I realize how incredibly hard the craft of shipping useful software actually is.

Sure, Claude Code and Codex can write (most of) the code for me - but the amount of technical knowledge I need to decide what and how to build remains enormous.

As an example: I'm working on a system right now that works like Claude Artifacts, allowing custom HTML+JS apps to safely run in an iframe sandbox inside a larger application.

Just understanding why that's a useful thing that can be built requires deep knowledge of sandboxing, security threats, browser security models, and half a dozen different platform features that have been evolving over a couple of decades.

A vibe coded without that technical understanding would have zero chance of prompting such a thing into existence, no matter how much guidance the LLMs gave them.

It really saddens me to see some developers talk about literally quitting their careers over AI, right when the benefits of existing deep technical experience have never been more valuable.

Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a Junior (in ANY subject) has the ability to LEARN so much faster with an AI research assistant This is a testable hypotheses with severe lack of citations. Intuition would argue the opposite. We learn by using our brains, if we offload the thinking to a machine and copy their output we don‘t learn. A child does not learn multiplication by using a calculator, and a language learner will not learn a new language by…

As a precondition I think we have to assume that the person in question 1) wants to learn and 2) is smart enough to absorb new info and apply it and 3) reflects enough to adjust their approach when hitting bottlenecks or making mistakes 4) has a drive to create. Without these, self driven learning is not viable - and that has very little to do with AI. For such a person, I believe AI can be very empowering for learni…

Who is talking about self driven learning? Every workplace teachers their juniors how to do their job, and how to become better at their jobs.

And as we are talking about junior developers it is safe to assume your conditions (1), (2), and (4) are all true, if any of them are false, then why did that person apply for and get a job as a junior developer? As for condition (3), all workplaces eventually hires a person who does not fulfill this, then they either fire that person, or they give them a talk and the developer grows out of it and changes their behavior to fulfill that condition.

Aside: you listed 4 conditions for learning. I am not sure these are actually conditions recognized as such by behavior science. In fact, I doubt they are and that these conditions are just your opinions (man).

Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

#123
I am working on a project since 10 months that is solely written by ai. The second iteration of the code is even coded in a language that i can really write in (rust), it uses advanced and very complex structures (crdt, plugins, parallel threaded webviews). None of the advanced features were an idea of the llm's, but a vision i had in my mind or requirements that came up when encountered with problems.

The software is a tool specifically designed around my requirements of managing lectures that need to be prepared, managed, have presentations, grading etc. I wanted one big space where i can quickly access all related data in a workspace, fold and unfold important aspects while also editing and moving contents across multiple days/lectures.

The first version is a vscode plugin, which i now use since about 4 months without or with minor modifications to manage my lectures and private data. The second version is a standalone application which improves on the ideas of the first version and goes a few steps further.

AI can make you something that looks like its running quickly. But when you try to finish it takes way longer then you'd think. You need to specify every little detail. You need to make its KISS and DRY etc. You let it analyze the application structure and simplify and cleanup nearly the same amount of times as you add features. While fixing bugs you might need to run the same thing multiple times and revert any unrequired changes. You need to think about good level of debug logs and ways that the program can help you find errors and report them quickly.

I hope my project will be ready in about 2 to 3 months. The current version is according to a quick analysis over 850 files with 250'000 lines of code.

I spent about 2000$ on ai subscriptions in that time. 200$ claude for a while down to 100$ a month now. 20$ to openai which is very important for architecture and reviews. 20$ on tests with other ai's, but i rarely use them in the works. I also spent 1500$ on 2 * 3090's to hopefully have a local ai agent in the future.

I spend about 2 to 4 hours each day (including weekends) to check that app and write prompts.

I would never have been able to create such a large and complex project next to my other tasks and i am very confident that the final product will be good enough for productive work.

Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

#124
post #18

I agree with the author that -- right now -- we're still in the part of the AI adoption / product development curve that it's an extreme force multiplier. I like to think of it as a normal distribution, the further away a programmer is to the right of the mean, the more their benefit. It's almost like it's their standard deviation squared (σ²). So someone like Matt Perry (as OP mentioned), who is a >99.99% programmer…

> How much longer is knowing what you're doing going to be a moat? For a looooonnnnngggg time, unless there's massive progress in AI research. Fundamentally, next token prediction is limited. Granted, I'm pretty amazed at how well it's done, but if you can't activate the right parts of the models (with your prompts), then you're not going to get good results. And to be fair, for lots of things this doesn't matter. St…

We also need to consider the price. At some point the price will need to go up (assuming cost of producing each token doesn’t drop dramatically) to generate enough revenues to cover not only operating expenses and taxes (once the nol carry forward’s are used up) but reinvestment. OAI and Anthropic are burning through their cash balances. OAI has also stated some very ambitious plans to develop models beyond just programming… I will be very intrigued to see how they are going to generate enough revenue to fund all this in the future.

Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

#125

I am working on a project since 10 months that is solely written by ai. The second iteration of the code is even coded in a language that i can really write in (rust), it uses advanced and very complex structures (crdt, plugins, parallel threaded webviews). None of the advanced features were an idea of the llm's, but a vision i had in my mind or requirements that came up when encountered with problems. The software i…

> None of the advanced features were an idea of the llm's, but a vision i had in my mind or requirements that came up when encountered with problems.

This is the correct way to code with AI. If you don't understand the code, we're not yet in a point where the model can do it all, well it can, but where you can confidently move forward knowing its been thoroughly built and reviewed by a model up to par. Some day maybe, but not currently.

Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

#126

I had an Iron Man moment last week where I was “vibe coding” a UI design with component tests live on the other screen. Iterating by asking it to move things, reduce emphasis of an element, exploring layout options, etc. The loop was near realtime and felt amazing. The code it generated was awful. The kind of garbage that people who don’t know any better would ship: it looked right and it worked. But it was instantly…

We collectively have to re-learn what operations are expensive and what are cheap. Prototypes are practically free now. You can ask the AI try each architectural or stylistic option and just see which code you like better. To your point, another interesting note is that rewriting and rearchitecting are also very good. One pattern I like is to vibe code a set of solutions, pick the approach, then backfill tests and do…

Free? Lol

Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

#127
post #105
post #50

Humans have hard skills and abilities the ais can’t reproduce yet like real time learning, spatial reasoning, cheap parallelism, Qualia so we can identity QWAN (quality without a name) because we feel in real time what the code is. AIs have skills humans aren’t good at like nerding out on technical details. That’s not a perfect map because I’m spitballing. However there is a symbiosis. I am not sure I am productive a…

The way I think of it is, computer memory is superior to human memory because it can store anything and re-call on demand when requested. This is great for the human because we no longer have to remember every tiny detail - just enough to recall the object and thus opening up room for space in the brain for other stuff. What is the llm equivalent?

The current algorithms have a limited context window and work linearly and are extremely expensive to change and energy intensive to run.

The human brain has a wide parallel multisystem real-time low-wattage execution layer that has way more modes than a large language model.

More importantly, because our brains are real-time, our qualia plus spatial and visual reasoning is superior to an LLM at understanding "elegance", "code smells", and overall system design because we can imagine ourselves as being the code or the system and we don't necessarily need to think in language. Well, at least that's how I experience coding in my mind; I imagine other developers similarly bring large parts of themselves into coding.

Feeling the code seems to be much more efficient at reducing complexity than any static analysis I've yet seen.

Finally, humans also empathize with other humans who have all the money. We know what works and doesn't work for humans in the here and now, not 2 years ago when the model training data was last collected. The value of Qualia is not to be discounted.

That being said, Sonnet 4.0 was the best model I've used that could express how the code felt, so who knows. If the emotionality wasn't tamped down, and the spatial reasoning improved, and the new algorithms for context engineering and parallelism make it to market, these advantages can be erased.

Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

#128
post #30

Back in the late 90's when the internet was really just becoming a thing with most people, a friend said something that's stuck with me all these years. "We're losing our moderate speech." Everything these days is either the greatest thing ever or the worst thing ever. All the stuff in the middle has vanished. Very few it seems acknowledge AI as being a useful tool. It's either "We're all being replaced" or "The tech…

Yeah… it is because thats the most impactful way to influence, also used by intelligence agencies. Sort of says something about where language leads deterministically.

Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

#129
post #7

I mostly share Josh's opinion, but I think a lot of these posts that talk about Senior vs. Junior experience when working with AIs is kind of rubbish. Sure, you get better results as a Senior working with AI tooling and struggle more as a Junior. Nothing has changed in that equation except the amplification. What folks seem to avoid is that a Junior (in ANY subject) has the ability to LEARN so much faster with an AI…

> a Junior (in ANY subject) has the ability to LEARN so much faster with an AI research assistant I’m not seeing this. And based on what we’re seeing at the university level, I’m not expecting to.

I wonder how much of this is due to poor incentives at the university level?

I've seen this work well at a job when there's a feedback loop for juniors that incentivized them to learn with more scope and compensation

Re: AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills

#130

I had an Iron Man moment last week where I was “vibe coding” a UI design with component tests live on the other screen. Iterating by asking it to move things, reduce emphasis of an element, exploring layout options, etc. The loop was near realtime and felt amazing. The code it generated was awful. The kind of garbage that people who don’t know any better would ship: it looked right and it worked. But it was instantly…

Could it be that the fact that the thing you’re an expert at looked like garbage to you, but the things you’re not an expert at, looked just fine, is not a coincidence?

You can talk to a bunch of designers who will say the opposite. Claude Design Studio generated this garbage UI, that I fixed manually, but it created great code j never could have that made it work.

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