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Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

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121–130 of 140 posts

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Germans themselves chose not to have children.

I think they were pushed not to have children, if that matters. Pushed via economical measures that made it very hard and pushed via education/indoctrination that kids are bad in multiple ways. My grandparents had many brothers and sisters each and life was harder back then, but it was easier to raise a large family than today. What changed? Taxes, with direct and indirect effects.

> What changed?

Contraception. Children weren't optional back then, they just happened naturally.

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> paid funny amounts compared to USA Well, the thing is, in Europe you generally get something in return for your lower wages: mostly affordable housing, a decent social security system, good healthcare, public transportation, good education, retirement / pension schemes. In the US, you have to go private for a lot of things: health insurance isn't enough on its own, you need to have a HYSA or otherwise save money fo…

>Housing costs are absurd even compared to the most absurdly expensive European cities (London, Frankfurt, Munich et al) You must be completely out of the current housing market loop, if you think housing in Europe is affordable right now. It's never been any less affordable. >And you need to take care of your retirement plans on your own and fund these. Same with Europeans. By the time millenials and younger will re…

> You must be completely out of the current housing market loop, if you think housing in Europe is affordable right now. It's never been any less affordable.

I had to flee out of Munich as well, so yes I am fully aware.

But even at current market price: I'm looking for a 2 br apartment in SF. Average for that seems to be 5k a month [1]. In Munich, even in the center that's 2k tops.

> Same with Europeans. By the time millenials and younger will retire the public pension systems in Europe will be insolvent. Those without owned housing, assets or private investments are gonna be doomed to poverty and/or homelessness.

That's the beautiful thing about our pension schemes: they mostly are built without the capital markets! All we need is workers, as long as there are workers and jobs, there will be pensions. And unlike the US, even if it's hardcore cynical, we can always just accept people fleeing from the poverty and wars we and the US have created. We won't run out of people.

[1] https://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca/apartments-2-bedroom...

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#123
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> government will implement aggressive anti-brain-drain policies Cannot see this happening anywhere except maybe North Korea.

Perhaps we have different definitions of "aggressive". In my country software engineers can enjoy a tax wedge of 15%, or even 8% if they're lucky enough to have formalities go through. The tradeoff is virtually no state pension, but nobody believes that it's going to be substantial anyway. This was enough to keep a huge number of people from emigrating, as western Europe outside of the UK doesn't provide such incenti…

>In my country software engineers can enjoy a tax wedge of 15%, or even 8% if they're lucky enough to have formalities go through.

Poland/Bulgaria?

That's a rare privilege in the EU. Most western EU nations don't allow such legal tax avoidance loophole for workers. It's the exception rather than the rule.

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#124
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Perhaps we have different definitions of "aggressive". In my country software engineers can enjoy a tax wedge of 15%, or even 8% if they're lucky enough to have formalities go through. The tradeoff is virtually no state pension, but nobody believes that it's going to be substantial anyway. This was enough to keep a huge number of people from emigrating, as western Europe outside of the UK doesn't provide such incenti…

>In my country software engineers can enjoy a tax wedge of 15%, or even 8% if they're lucky enough to have formalities go through. Poland/Bulgaria? That's a rare privilege in the EU. Most western EU nations don't allow such legal tax avoidance loophole for workers. It's the exception rather than the rule.

10% difference in income tax will not affect brain drain. But can make outsourcing from Poland to India a bit less attractive. Also local salaries are lower. Unless one directly working as a contractor to the western company it makes a little difference.

Also worth mentioning 12% income tax in Poland is not for the employment contract, but for business-to-business contract. Add mandatory social contributions and insurance and it will be 20-22%, which is still a good total tax rate.

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#125
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure the wages don't rise in high demand, low supply areas? We all just read the 7 figure salaries for people in AI stolen from one big company to another, what is that? Yes, companies are picky, but it is slowly changing. They cannot afford to be picky anymore, but change takes time.

Health care and construction have high demand but the wages raises aren’t that high, sometimes even lower than inflation

In my part of Europe doctors are paid extremely well. Construction workers also earn quite well given the lack of qualification required, a highway worker earns more than a junior developer and even more than many mid-level developers. The raise in these 2 sectors are definitely above the IT sector for the past 10 years.

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Housing costs are absurd even compared to the most absurdly expensive European cities (London, Frankfurt, Munich et al) You must be completely out of the current housing market loop, if you think housing in Europe is affordable right now. It's never been any less affordable. >And you need to take care of your retirement plans on your own and fund these. Same with Europeans. By the time millenials and younger will re…

> You must be completely out of the current housing market loop, if you think housing in Europe is affordable right now. It's never been any less affordable. I had to flee out of Munich as well, so yes I am fully aware. But even at current market price: I'm looking for a 2 br apartment in SF. Average for that seems to be 5k a month [1]. In Munich, even in the center that's 2k tops. > Same with Europeans. By the time…

>But even at current market price: I'm looking for a 2 br apartment in SF. Average for that seems to be 5k a month [1]. In Munich, even in the center that's 2k tops.

Sounds fine if you wanna be a rentoid cuck your whoe life and retire in poverty/homeless while enriching a landlord.

If you look at buying to own your property instead, Munich square meter is not much cheaper than SF, while wages being much less.

When I was working in Munch, all colleagues were renting shoeboxes while all form our team in Texas(DFW area) were home owners of single family homes. That tells you everything about local purchasing power of housing, since you kept bringing it up. Also, just look at statistics % of homeowners in US vs Germany.

And you don't need to live in super expensive SF or Texas. My ex German boss moved from Bonn to the suburban outskirts of Atlanta, not (just) for the money, but also for the quality of life(his words, not mine) and more advanced healthcare for his autistic kid that far supersede the treatments he got in Germany.

>That's the beautiful thing about our pension schemes: they mostly are built without the capital markets! All we need is workers

Correction: that's the worst part of our pension systems, since it's a local population Ponzi scheme that's unsustainable. The stock market is not perfect but much better, since its extracting wealth from economic activity across the planet, not dependent on the birth rates of your country or populism whims to sway votes from pensioners.

>as long as there are workers and jobs, there will be pensions.

That "as long as" is doing a lot of unrealistic heavy lifting here. Because what happens when a lot of those workers due to the economy go unemployed needing unemployment, or they retire themselves needing more people for old age care and to pay their pensions? Who pays for that? Which whose money? Who pays for the pension system then? You forget that all these issues of the public pension system have been papered over by content debt(money printing) to delay the inevitable collapse. Workers and people are as much liability as they are assets, and EU/Germany has been importing more net-negative liabilities than assets via their open border migration.

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>In my country software engineers can enjoy a tax wedge of 15%, or even 8% if they're lucky enough to have formalities go through. Poland/Bulgaria? That's a rare privilege in the EU. Most western EU nations don't allow such legal tax avoidance loophole for workers. It's the exception rather than the rule.

10% difference in income tax will not affect brain drain. But can make outsourcing from Poland to India a bit less attractive. Also local salaries are lower. Unless one directly working as a contractor to the western company it makes a little difference. Also worth mentioning 12% income tax in Poland is not for the employment contract, but for business-to-business contract. Add mandatory social contributions and insu…

I don't think that contradicts what I said.

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#128
post #65

The job market all over the world is ultimately changing. Wars, AI, energy crisis, etc. — it’s a combination of factors. Yet, the article is too shallow, so it doesn’t clarify much. The two examples are not really representative, “press spokesman at a small industry association” and entry-level “apprenticeship in marketing communications and a bachelor’s degree in international management”. I don’t want to say that t…

And here I have the same impression: there's a lot of talk and very little action (not nothing, just too little in comparison). An important source of problem identification talk is the opposition, which noticed that to criticize is very easy, it attracts attention and supporters, while actually FIXING things is a shitload of work and better leave it for the others. It reminds me of a recent read about Locard's excha…

>And here I have the same impression: there's a lot of talk and very little action

Genuine question: What action were you expecting?

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Part of the problem is that there are fake “pragmatists” who claim that nothing ever comes from greed or market consolidation, making laymen who can’t mechanistically and empirically think through the markets skeptical of all “pragmatist” claims. For example, you are right about rent freezes and protection of non-infant industry; however, there were studies showing that ~40% of inflation at the end of Biden’s term wa…

> there were studies showing that ~40% of inflation at the end of Biden’s term was due to “greedflation.” Studies approved by the government show the government is not to blame for the economic situation it created, but the "greedy corporations" are to blame. OK, sure. >This should not be surprising to anyone who understands that massive consolidation in industry leads to less price competition. Consolidation which w…

“Pragmatists” (but really anti-pragmatist) like you always find creative ways to bring the blame back to government but then don’t take the next step of blaming the private interests that crafted those government policies.

Effectively, I could make a symmetrical argument and every time you blame the government, I can blame the private interests that primary influence government — especially since citizens united but even before then. Obviously this tactical trick you and other “pragmatists” rely on is therefore fallacious as it leads to a contradiction when you apply it evenhandedly.

I have respect for many libertarians but you are not one of them.

Re: Germany goes from labour shortages to hiring freezes

#130
post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> she encountered barely any native speakers, and many people tried to speak English to her instead Germans often switch to English when they hear an accent or hesitation

I know they do and if you're trying to learn German, it's not great. But foreign residents in Germany often default to English when dealing with each other.

Depends on background I think. Educated foreigners will default to English, worker class would most likely speak German
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