Not really. Claude Code harness with Sonnet 4.5 model showed you don't really need bigger GPU rollouts, and it's only a matter of time for OSS combos to hit that. Overtime, this will only get better, and the set of enterprise tasks smaller deployments can handle will only go up.
AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
121–130 of 426 posts
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#122This mirrors my own thoughts. Additionally, for businesses looking to replace people (particularly developers) with agentic AI, this is arguably worse from an accounting perspective as the cost of using these services will likely be pure OpEx vs capitalised per my understanding of US/UK GAAP accounting.
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#123Every AI subscription is a ticking time bomb for the frontier provider; within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier models with almost no cost burden. The floor will fall out of the enterprise market for all the frontier companies.
> within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier Unless there isn't some important breakthrough in hw production or in models architecture, it's quite the opposite: bigger, more expensive and more energy-intensive hw is needed today compared to 1 or 2 years ago.
As good as today’s frontier. Gemma 4 today is roughly equivalent to the frontier a year and a half ago at gpt 4o tier.
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#124Brad Gerstner confirmed that tokens aren't being sold at a loss. Whatever the formula, API + Subscription split, the companies are making a profit on net token sale. They maybe running at loss after all the salaries and stock comp, but tokens are in profit now.
Is sounds very much like "trust me bro" ...
Obviously I, like basically everyone else here, don't have access to Open AI or Anthropic books so it's just guessing based on public available evidences, but "tokens aren't being sold at a loss" does not imply there is any profit.
And, even if there is some profit, it needs to be big enough to at least pay back the capex spendings and finance the next model iteration.
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#125Earlier quoted context omitted.
> within a few years we will be running local models as good as today’s frontier Unless there isn't some important breakthrough in hw production or in models architecture, it's quite the opposite: bigger, more expensive and more energy-intensive hw is needed today compared to 1 or 2 years ago.
As good as today’s frontier. Gemma 4 today is roughly equivalent to the frontier a year and a half ago at gpt 4o tier.
What's the cheapest PC you can buy today that will comfortably run Gemma 4 and everything else you want it to run at the same time?
And how many tokens would that buy?
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#126I think I'm going to puke if I see one more "It's not X. It's Y." phrase or the word "load-bearing" used metaphorically.
X is the adjective framing.
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#127Earlier quoted context omitted.
I guess the good news may be that if/when there is a major pricing correction, that many of the people using free or $20/mo subscriptions to generate social media commentary may balk at the real cost and go back to writing it themselves. One can at least hope.
Something I have noticed is that the people who are using it to write everything are the same people who had a poor level of English writing a year or two ago. It's just "intellectual" botox.
I noticed this from former coworkers who I know couldn't write beyond first grader level a few years ago. They weren't good at their native language either.
Now they write "competent" blog posts on LinkedIn that seem 100% AI slop. Some are employed at AWS, too.
I'm not a native English speaker as I'm sure my writing shows. My point is that I'd rather read genuine posts full of grammar errors instead of slop.
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#128Enterprise customers aren't running 20 bucks a month for claude pro subscriptions. My company provides developers about 1k worth of usage limits a month and best I can tell they get maybe a 30% savings off of API cost tops. That's not an insane subsidy. Many other jobs titles are only allowed 50 a month and those folks are constantly running out.
Github Copilot has been doing this with business and enterprise seats, but that will be coming to a head very soon. I expect a fast follow after june when they re-align consumer pro and pro+ accounts.
OpenAi seems to be trying to throw tokens at clients to get lock in. So i'd be most worried about the rug pull that will come from open AI post IPO. Anthropic is already acting responsibly in this area and github copilot is attempting to remediate their insane subsidies in the next several months.
Re: AI subscriptions are a ticking time bomb for enterprise
#129Earlier quoted context omitted.
As good as today’s frontier. Gemma 4 today is roughly equivalent to the frontier a year and a half ago at gpt 4o tier.
What's the cheapest PC you can buy today that will comfortably run Gemma 4 and everything else you want it to run at the same time? And how many tokens would that buy?
I run it on my 4 year old MBP and get 10 tok/s. With the RAM shortage buying anything new today is a nightmare but anyone with a reasonably modern Mac could run it at q6 probably. It is mostly a toy as 4o models weren’t really suitable for real work IMO but at least it won’t ever give me a refusal.