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245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

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Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#121

Post by markhahn »

_zoltan_ wrote: post #88
justsomehnguy wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Extremely dense QLC chips. Still it's 2700-3000MByte, ie ~3GByte/second. What should worry way more is DWPD which is abysmal... on the first glance. But if you punch it in the calc it still would take ages to wear it out. SSD #1 SSD #2 SSD #3 Capacity (GB) 245000 245000 245000 Warranty (yr.) 3 3 3 DWPD 0.3 1 0.075 TBW (TB) 80482 268275 20121 TBW (PB) 80.483 268.275 20.121 PBW 80.483 268.275 20.121 GB/day 73500 245000…

DWPD was the boogey man 10 years ago. everybody worried about it. now, nobody cares. I have over 500 NVMe drives in our deployment and the drive deaths are not due to wear.

then either your drives are overprovisioned or read-mostly.

it's not that hard to hit 300 cycles on flash.

Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#122

Post by wtallis »

hikarudo wrote: post #97
dwa3592 wrote: post #86

We bought a 2TB Sandisk SSD back in 2024 for around $95 from best buy. Today 1TB ssd by sandisk is $166(the cheapest that i found, and it goes for $199 in walmart). Market is forcing people to become renters than buyers and there is no force countering that idea. Its a market failure that people will study 10-15 years from now. EDIT- The same 2TB ssd is now $329.99 at bestbuy.

It's not a market failure, it's just supply and demand. There are many computer components competing for the same resources (fabs, wafers). Demand for GPUs, RAM etc. has increased a lot due to AI, but supply is still the same due to new fabs being huge investments that take years to build. Of course the price goes up.

> There are many computer components competing for the same resources (fabs, wafers).

That's a bit off the mark. Processors, RAM, and flash memory each require their own specialized fabs. TSMC makes processors but not DRAM or NAND flash. Kioxia makes flash only. Samsung has all three types of fabs. Micron does DRAM and NAND, in different fabs.

The increase in SSD prices is not because there are many components competing for the same constrained resources, it's that they are complementary goods being subject to the same dynamics in parallel because the servers that are causing this demand spike need all of those components. Where we do see competition for the same fab capacity is in the mix of DRAM types, where GPUs want HBM, server CPUs want DDR5, laptops and phones (and the occasional server CPU) want LPDDR. And competition among different types of processors for TSMC's fab capacity.

Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#123

Post by Adachi91 »

thelastgallon wrote: post #117
dwa3592 wrote: post #86

We bought a 2TB Sandisk SSD back in 2024 for around $95 from best buy. Today 1TB ssd by sandisk is $166(the cheapest that i found, and it goes for $199 in walmart). Market is forcing people to become renters than buyers and there is no force countering that idea. Its a market failure that people will study 10-15 years from now. EDIT- The same 2TB ssd is now $329.99 at bestbuy.

When people talk about AI investments of trillions of dollars, its never mentioned how high a price we are paying at a planetary scale in externalities. Billions of people are now paying a lot more for these components, memory, ssd, cpu; all these costs must be factored into the total cost of AI. AI companies are being subsidized at the expense of consumers. The current supply chains were built for consumer demand, w…

True, I've been searching for 2 weeks now for components to get a PC back online. I suspect the VRM blew in my motherboard, and trying to find x570 or b550 old Gen tech is drying up because that's the only thing affordable. Meanwhile decent 3D cache CPU + motherboard combos afe going cheap because they can't move stock. The price looks nice but the second you add DDR5 RAM it is just a gut punch. Scalpers are taking advantage of this as well, as well as Chinese "Brand New" x570 motherboards listed as gaming consoles on Amazon.

This is the first time I've had a computer have a complete failure and no way to fix it as I look around at the used market and the latest generation market. I'm kind of just disillusioned.

Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#124

Post by radicality »

therealmarv wrote: post #79
devttyeu wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Enterprise NVMe on the high end is now starting to ship batches at $1000/TB with existing stock around $500/TB. No consumer is going to pay that. But if you're buying a $500k GPU server putting 100TB of nvme in there for $50-100k is justifiable.

There was once a 2.5" SSD Mushkin Source 16TB SATA drive. At its cheapest it was ~1700 USD (or 1500 EUR). That was mid 2023 (like 3 years ago!). Nowadays it feels like that this time and price region is like decades away in the future. I was hoping I can store more data in future on modern tech like SSDs and not less.

Yeah it sucks :( Almost exactly a year ago, I got a brand new 15.36TB Kioxia CD-6R (u.3 pcie4x4 drive) for $1450+tax from serverpartdeals.com - that same drive is now listed for ~$4600 (and it’s also out of stock there)

Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#125

Post by tw04 »

hikarudo wrote: post #97
dwa3592 wrote: post #86

We bought a 2TB Sandisk SSD back in 2024 for around $95 from best buy. Today 1TB ssd by sandisk is $166(the cheapest that i found, and it goes for $199 in walmart). Market is forcing people to become renters than buyers and there is no force countering that idea. Its a market failure that people will study 10-15 years from now. EDIT- The same 2TB ssd is now $329.99 at bestbuy.

It's not a market failure, it's just supply and demand. There are many computer components competing for the same resources (fabs, wafers). Demand for GPUs, RAM etc. has increased a lot due to AI, but supply is still the same due to new fabs being huge investments that take years to build. Of course the price goes up.

It’s market consolidation unchecked. How many nand suppliers are there in the US? How many globally? Now add the sanctions on China, and tell us how that’s a competitive market.

The reality is all the things we learned from the Great Depression have been forgotten, and half the voting public seems to champion monopolies while simultaneously acting dumbfounded that the end result will always be an increase in costs.

Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#126

Post by cm2187 »

hikarudo wrote: post #97
dwa3592 wrote: post #86

We bought a 2TB Sandisk SSD back in 2024 for around $95 from best buy. Today 1TB ssd by sandisk is $166(the cheapest that i found, and it goes for $199 in walmart). Market is forcing people to become renters than buyers and there is no force countering that idea. Its a market failure that people will study 10-15 years from now. EDIT- The same 2TB ssd is now $329.99 at bestbuy.

It's not a market failure, it's just supply and demand. There are many computer components competing for the same resources (fabs, wafers). Demand for GPUs, RAM etc. has increased a lot due to AI, but supply is still the same due to new fabs being huge investments that take years to build. Of course the price goes up.

Also my understanding is that a lot of the suppliers remain skeptical / prudent about the long term demand from AI. Not their first boom/bust cycle.

Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#127

Post by Scoundreller »

kjs3 wrote: post #95
dwa3592 wrote: post #86

We bought a 2TB Sandisk SSD back in 2024 for around $95 from best buy. Today 1TB ssd by sandisk is $166(the cheapest that i found, and it goes for $199 in walmart). Market is forcing people to become renters than buyers and there is no force countering that idea. Its a market failure that people will study 10-15 years from now. EDIT- The same 2TB ssd is now $329.99 at bestbuy.

Ug. I picked up a 16TB hard disk last year for about $250. Went looking for another one last month and the same disk is about $500. Painful.

At least the fun part with these situations is that the prices of old crap goes up and I can sell that old crap I have for actual $.

I remember selling some ancient GPUs that I was going to throw away during one of the previous booms.

Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#129

Post by didgetmaster »

dwa3592 wrote: post #86

We bought a 2TB Sandisk SSD back in 2024 for around $95 from best buy. Today 1TB ssd by sandisk is $166(the cheapest that i found, and it goes for $199 in walmart). Market is forcing people to become renters than buyers and there is no force countering that idea. Its a market failure that people will study 10-15 years from now. EDIT- The same 2TB ssd is now $329.99 at bestbuy.

When I upgraded my computer a little over a year ago, I got 128GB of DDR5 RAM instead of just 64GB. Glad I did.

I also thought about upgrading my gen4 SSD at the same time. It was still meeting all my needs, so I thought if I waited, I could get a bigger, faster one for cheap later. Mistake!

Re: 245TB Micron 6600 ION Data Center SSD Now Shipping

#130

Post by aftbit »

state_less wrote: post #118
hikarudo wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not a market failure, it's just supply and demand. There are many computer components competing for the same resources (fabs, wafers). Demand for GPUs, RAM etc. has increased a lot due to AI, but supply is still the same due to new fabs being huge investments that take years to build. Of course the price goes up.

An industry doesn't need to increase supply when demand increases, they can absorb the demand as profits. More so in an industry that is hard to enter into. Consumers hate this and call it all sorts of things like market failure, gouging, etc... In this case, the suppliers are slow walking increases in production and enjoying a run up in profits. They raise concerns about oversupply, as if this deep learning thing we…

>It's a dubious notion though, the demand is here to stay and new supply needs to come online to meet demand.

This is a big bet. Look at what happened in 2001 with the dot-com boom. We're still trading on their dark fiber over-build today. Meanwhile any overcapacity built in fabs will quickly be made obsolete by newer and better fab technology (or at least, that's been the pattern for the past 30 years).

I think you're missing the fact that building new supply takes time and sustained commitment, and there's simply nobody in a good position to make that commitment without losing big if your thesis turns out to be wrong.

If the demand for new AI builds is eventually satisfied, or worse, craters overnight, then who will be left holding the bag? It sure won't be Google or Apple, or even NVIDIA - it will be TSMC and Samsung.

But as you mention, this is all temporary. Either you're right, and demand will remain sustained long enough for some of the providers to decide to take that risk, or demand will crater and prices will fall.

The fact that the S&P 500 is near record highs at the same time as consumer confidence is at a 70 year low is not encouraging for continued all steam ahead in my mind... but then it's easy to predict a general future recession, and much harder to predict it to the day.

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