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Apocalypse Early Warning System

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Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#121

Post by jjk166 »

fwipsy wrote: post #88
jjk166 wrote: post #87

> we suspect that many people who have access to private jets will immediately take to the skies and escape city centers. I would bet on the exact opposite. Unless you're within a few hundred meters of ground zero you're better off seeking shelter than trying to run, and if you are running you only want to go those few hundred meters and then take shelter. The local airport where your plane presumably is would be far…

I think this is meant to detect insider knowledge of imminent risk of a nuclear attack. It's not meant to detect if nukes are already inbound.

Okay but that wouldn't produce the signal "all of the planes have suddenly taken off at the same time." No one who knows Manhattan's going to be nuked on Tuesday is going to be in Manhattan on Tuesday counting on their plane to get them out.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#122

Post by jjk166 »

Tepix wrote: post #97
jjk166 wrote: post #87

> we suspect that many people who have access to private jets will immediately take to the skies and escape city centers. I would bet on the exact opposite. Unless you're within a few hundred meters of ground zero you're better off seeking shelter than trying to run, and if you are running you only want to go those few hundred meters and then take shelter. The local airport where your plane presumably is would be far…

Insiders. Most rich people work in cities. They will want to get to their hideaways quickly.

> Most rich people work in cities.

People with private plane wealth aren't going into work near a potential nuclear strike target when nuclear war is imminent.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#123

Post by jjk166 »

elzbardico wrote: post #113
jjk166 wrote: post #87

> we suspect that many people who have access to private jets will immediately take to the skies and escape city centers. I would bet on the exact opposite. Unless you're within a few hundred meters of ground zero you're better off seeking shelter than trying to run, and if you are running you only want to go those few hundred meters and then take shelter. The local airport where your plane presumably is would be far…

Well connected people probably have access to the kind of insider information that would allow them to escape the hot zone with hours, even days of advance. And they have the money to pay for the people who can interpret this information and assess the risks. Most of the time, they use this information to do some nice trades. But should things start to get very seriously moving towards a Nuclear Confrontation, they w…

> Well connected people probably have access to the kind of insider information that would allow them to escape the hot zone with hours, even days of advance.

Which would not result in them scrambling to get airborne all at once, and thus not produce the signal that this site is set up to look for. The elites may have a more precise estimate on when exactly a war's going down, but they also have no reason to stick around ground zero till the last minute.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#124

Post by jjk166 »

mbonnet wrote: post #91
fwipsy wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this is meant to detect insider knowledge of imminent risk of a nuclear attack. It's not meant to detect if nukes are already inbound.

That, or any other potentially apocalyptic event

Assuming that apocalyptic event is something which would impact the elites, is reliably predictable by the elites, escapable by flying, and has a window of opportunity where everyone will be trying to escape at the same time.

In reality, look at things like the 9/11 attacks, the 2004 tsunami, the Covid lockdowns, the Maduro raid: the elites didn't fly out all at once shortly ahead of time before the plebs knew what was going to happen. No doubt you can think of good reasons why it didn't happen in those circumstances, but trying to come up with a scenario where it actually would happen is quite a bit more challenging.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#125

Post by beej71 »

pndy wrote: post #102
beej71 wrote: post #6

There was a Sci-Fi book I read where this was a service provided to rich people. Basically you signed up for it, and you'd get a text when everything was about to go down. Time to drop everything and fly to your bunker.

Any chances you'll recall the title? It sounds interesting

I had to dig through my "booksread.tsv" file a bit.

It's _The Future_ by Naomi Alderman.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#126

Post by pc86 »

pkaeding wrote: post #63
pc86 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

99.99% of airports do not have "timeslots on the runway." Most airports in the US have no tower whatsoever.

But I bet if you filter for airports that business jets park at, the percentage of airports without towers is much lower than the overall average.

And the percentage of airports with "timeslots on the runway" is still going to be 0.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#127

Post by bottlepalm »

elzbardico wrote: post #116
bottlepalm wrote: post #21

Do you think that rich people are on some sort of private 'end of the world' mailing list?

Well, there's a fucking giant very busy revolving door between the federal government and the private sector. Those people have connections, but they are also able interpret open source intelligence signals and their implications in a way that most of us can't, because we don't know the internal machinery. In fact, most big banks and other big companies have retired defense and intelligence people explicitly working…

I guess when you grow up, you figure out the internal machinery isn't as interesting as your imagination thinks it is. And also that somehow the people involved are part of some secret network that has the ability to keep the truth from you. That's some good old fashioned 90s x-files mentality.

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#128

Post by nightsd01 »

The sad truth is - getting on a private jet would be just about the single worst thing you could do during a nuclear war. Most modern private jets are largely based on flight control systems based on computers and electronics that would be quickly fried by the EMP flash from nuclear weapons even a large distance away. If you wanna die - get on a non-military aircraft during a nuclear exchange

Re: Apocalypse Early Warning System

#129

Post by elzbardico »

_alternator_ wrote: post #117
elzbardico wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just because they flew to New Zeland at time D, it doesn't mean they were not aware of the situation in time D - x.

Correct. But this indicator is "when do the vast majority of wealthy people actually take to the air?" Which means it's 'belief' lagged by however long it takes them to get in the air. And the fact is, most wealthy people dont actually have particularly good inside information. Even if a small percent do, this indicator won't see it. We will all know from the news that something really bad is about to happen before t…

You're assuming normal events, that usually follow some deterministic logic. May I remind you that we have Donald Trump on the white house at the present moment.
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