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U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

reuters.com

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Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#121

Post by jjk166 »

jmyeet wrote: post #106
jjk166 wrote: post #23

So what were they requesting $200 Billion for?

Short answer? To ramp up production. For any sufficiently large and complex system, you need to keep that assembly line alive to keep the system alive. Part of this is for just replacement parts and general maintenance. Take something like the F35. The engine will only last a certain number of flight hours. Then you need a new engine. That engine will need replacement blades and other parts. The frame and the stealth…

> To ramp up production.

This makes absolutely no sense. The $25 Billion cost would be the cost of all the munitions used, the cost of the actual usage, the cost of all the maintenance, the fuel consumption, the logistics, the wages and hazard pay of all the people involved. So the things you actually need to replace are only a tiny fraction of that number. On top of that, it's still the total. If you were spending $2.5 billion per year for 10 years to build up that stockpile, then $25 billion is already a 10X multiplier to scale back rapidly, on top of the $2.5 billion per year that has already been allocated for the usual production. Further, those are peace time prices. Munitions factories are overbuilt and then run lean during peacetime, increasing per unit cost to justify maintaining everything. Scaling up to larger orders doesn't increase unit prices, it lowers them. There may be some diseconomies of scale as you deal with some growing pains or if you need to go beyond maximum capacity, but it's certainly nothing that's going to balloon the cost 8X+. Finally, building the facilities to produce more quickly would take substantial time anyways, so it's not even advantageous to do so unless you're actually going to need that higher production capacity in the long term.

Right now the munitions cost is estimated at $10 Billion with a replacement time of 1-4 years. Note that only a fraction of the US's inventory was actually used, for example the US used about 1000 tomahawks over the course of the conflict and still has about 2000 in inventory. Obviously every munition you fire is one less round available immediately - if we get into a war with China next week we'll be in a bad spot - but that's not a problem solvable by overspending.

[0] https://www.csis.org/analysis/last-rounds-status-key-munitio...

Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#122

Post by delecti »

pb7 wrote: post #74
delecti wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why does improving things for future generations need to be held up until we can undo mistakes already done? The ladder got pulled up and some of us needed to scramble, but can't we lower the ladder back down for them anyway? We can do both. We can help people already saddled with debt, and also do things to prevent future generations from being saddled with debt in the first place. People who managed to climb out of…

Because we're still alive and also have a future and if the goal is to help people, there is no reason to draw the line at "paid it off already" when money is fungible and can still be used to secure a more comfortable future. Having paid off debts doesn't mean you climbed out of the hole, it means you did the responsible thing when you could have easily stashed the money away for your own retirement.

I'm not saying we shouldn't help people like us, who already paid off large sums of loans. I'm asking why we should only help people still saddled with debt if we also help people like us at the same time. That's classic crab mentality.

> it means you did the responsible thing

Not all fields are lucrative enough that paying off a pile of loans is even feasible. With how college is often pushes as all but required for many kids, it isn't possible to make an informed decision.

Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#123

Post by jjk166 »

energy123 wrote: post #110
jjk166 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

North Korea routinely attacks South Korean and US assets in its area like the sinking of Cheonan. North Korea is strongly allied with its other neighbors China and Russia. Iran is not organized around an expansionist death cult. They have not expanded or attempted to expand at all. They are involved in lots of neighboring conflicts because they are in a region with lots of conflicts. We are also involved in lots of c…

[flagged]

It's despicable and dishonest to pretend they're different in a relevant way. You can hate Iran till your dying breath, but it has no bearing on the economic question.

Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#124

Post by someotherperson »

lysace wrote: post #92
insane_dreamer wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They had an agreement that was working which Trump tore up and then went to war on Israel’s behalf. So it was largely a solved problem until Trump created the problem.

There are two perspectives here: Americans like you (I rudely assume) care more about US domestic policies than I do. Foreigners like me care more about global stability compared to US domestic policies.

"Foreigners like me care more about global stability" yes so continue to rain bombs on the middle east, accept their poorest as refugees, and continue to support Israeli expansion. All of this leads to global stability. It's definitely not the reason behind global instability.

European takes are usually the funniest. It's literal racism (as in, one race is better than the other) but it's packaged in such a ridiculous way that you somehow suggest that it's doing others a favor.

Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#125

Post by Ekaros »

mc32 wrote: post #18
Larrikin wrote: post #4

Does anyone have the number that would have been required to pay off all student loans that SCOTUS blocked?

I’d be okay with them forgiving student loans so long as they also pay me back for what I paid back. I think the best course is to allow students to default on their loans. With backed loans Unis know they’ll get their money one way or the other and keep ballooning their admin costs.

I think fairest would have been to give everyone some lump sum. Say median of student loans. Those with student loans or tax debt or medical debt would have it automatically applied towards them. And the rest would get it as tax return.

Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#126

Post by lysace »

someotherperson wrote: post #124
lysace wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are two perspectives here: Americans like you (I rudely assume) care more about US domestic policies than I do. Foreigners like me care more about global stability compared to US domestic policies.

"Foreigners like me care more about global stability" yes so continue to rain bombs on the middle east, accept their poorest as refugees, and continue to support Israeli expansion. All of this leads to global stability. It's definitely not the reason behind global instability. European takes are usually the funniest. It's literal racism (as in, one race is better than the other) but it's packaged in such a ridiculous…

Lots of odd assumptions there.

As an example:

I was out on the streets protesting the 2003 GWB Iraq invasion war. It was mostly obvious before the invasion that the cause was bogus. It was later proven to be bogus.

And you seem to have this way of boiling literally everything down to some sort of unspecified racism.

Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#127

Post by palmotea »

eirikbakke wrote: post #55
palmotea wrote: post #2

Wow, that's pretty cheap compared to all the AI datacenters.

The data centers are being paid for by customers, who are receiving greater value from the products than they pay for them.

> The data centers are being paid for by customers, who are receiving greater value from the products than they pay for them.

You seem to be assuming an always-rational market, run by the mythical homo economicus.

But as they say "the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent." You can't infer that a set of decisions is rational just because market participants made them.

Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#128

Post by mrguyorama »

incrudible wrote: post #21
nerdsniper wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Note that it doesn't count the cost of second- or third- order effects (like the cost from the price of oil going up by 50%). Since February 28, crude oil prices increases cost $42 billion in the United States alone.

What are the second- and third order effects of the Marg Bar Amrika Society getting a nuclear device (and the missiles to deliver it)?

Remember when North Korea and Pakistan had to be prevented from developing nuclear weapons at all costs because they would obviously use them ASAP to kill as many people as they could because they were crazy?

Remember when multiple US administrations have internally pushed for nuking Korea and Vietnam, and yet we are apparently still allowed to have nukes?

Remember when Iran used to have a fully operational biological weapons program that they have dismantled as confirmed internationally.

Iran has enough Uranium to make bombs. The physics package that actually detonates things is not as hard as enriching Uranium in bulk.

Why hasn't Iran used a weapon of mass destruction yet in this almost existential war? I thought they were nuts? I thought they wanted to nuke all the infidels?

Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#129

Post by dd8601fn »

ck2 wrote: post #94

all their numbers are a lie they've spent more than $25 BILLION on just weapons which have to be replaced so it's already twice that number and for more examples we know now the true cost of militarization since 9/11 was $21 TRILLION it's at least half the national debt if not more https://ips-dc.org/report-state-of-insecurity-cost-militariz... Remember, beyond the cost of war, every day the cost of gas is +$1 that's…

Seems like it should be cost or replacement cost, but not both.

Re: U.S. war in Iran has cost $25B so far, says Pentagon official

#130

Post by palmotea »

epistasis wrote: post #20
palmotea wrote: post #2

Wow, that's pretty cheap compared to all the AI datacenters.

Is it? I don't think so.

> Is it? I don't think so.

I mean, they're projecting $750 billion in 2026, and apparently they spent $450 billion on them last year: https://about.bnef.com/insights/commodities/ai-data-center-b....

$25 billion is like six datacenters worth of money: https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/how-big-tec.... It's a drop in the bucket.

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