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The RAM shortage could last years

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Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#121

I’m a bit of an optimist. I think this will smack the hands of developers who don’t manage RAM well and future apps will necessarily be more memory-efficient.

> I think this will smack the hands of developers who don’t manage RAM well

And hopefully kill Electron.

I have never seen the point of spinning up a 300+Mb app just to display something that ought to need only 500Kb to paint onto the screen.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the Dutch power grid is at capacity and its managing company is now telling companies that planned to build a datacenter that they can't be connected to the grid until 2030, even though said companies already paid for and got guarantees about that connection. Are the Netherlands a large proportion of global datacenters?

Yes. Amsterdam has one of the largest IXPs (AMS-IX) in Europe and is also one of the largest European markets for Internet Infrastructure services (i.e. hosting, DNS provision, domain name registration, etc.)

And all of these are practically irrelevant for AI data centers.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#123

I’m a bit of an optimist. I think this will smack the hands of developers who don’t manage RAM well and future apps will necessarily be more memory-efficient.

> I think this will smack the hands of developers who don’t manage RAM well And hopefully kill Electron. I have never seen the point of spinning up a 300+Mb app just to display something that ought to need only 500Kb to paint onto the screen.

The point is being able to write it once with web developers instead of writing it a minimum of twice (Windows and macOS) with much harder to hire native UI developers.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#124

I’m a bit of an optimist. I think this will smack the hands of developers who don’t manage RAM well and future apps will necessarily be more memory-efficient.

> I think this will smack the hands of developers who don’t manage RAM well And hopefully kill Electron. I have never seen the point of spinning up a 300+Mb app just to display something that ought to need only 500Kb to paint onto the screen.

The point is you can be lazy and write the app in html and js. Then you dont need to write c, even though c syntax is similar to js syntax and most gui apps wont require needing advanced c features if the gui framework is generous enough.

Now that everyone who cant be bothered, vibe codes, and electron apps are the overevangelized norm… People will probably not even worry about writing js and electron will be here to stay. The only way out is to evangelize something else.

Like how half the websites have giant in your face cookie banners and half have minimalist banners. The experience will still suck for the end user because the dev doesnt care and neither do the business leaders.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#125

Ok so Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron do not have the capacity to meet demand. Also, what little capacity they do have they are allocating to HBM over DRAM. Based on my limited knowledge HBM can not be easily repurposed for consumer electronics. Translation: main street is cooked for the next 3-4 years. It doesn't stop there though. OpenAI is currently mired in a capital crunch. Their last round just about sucked all th…

I am betting the pendulum swings faster to the other side to excess capacity as all the construction lies of Altman fall through with financiers waking up the the fact they can't build the infrasctructure as fast nor make any profits on that infrastructure that will get built.

Those financiers can’t risk not being involved in a company with even just a slight potential for AGI.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#126
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Using a lot less RAM often implies using more CPU, so even with inflated RAM prices, it's not a good tradeoff (at least not in general).

In practice, you generally see the opposite. The "CPU" is in fact limited by memory throughput. (The exception is intense number crunching or similar compute-heavy code, where thermal and power limits come into play. But much of that code can be shifted to the GPU.)

RAM throughput and RAM footprint are only weakly related. The throughput is governed by the cache locality of access patterns. A program with a 50MB footprint could put more pressure on the RAM bus than one with a 5GB footprint.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#127
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In practice, you generally see the opposite. The "CPU" is in fact limited by memory throughput. (The exception is intense number crunching or similar compute-heavy code, where thermal and power limits come into play. But much of that code can be shifted to the GPU.)

RAM throughput and RAM footprint are only weakly related. The throughput is governed by the cache locality of access patterns. A program with a 50MB footprint could put more pressure on the RAM bus than one with a 5GB footprint.

You're absolutely right? I don't really disagree with anything you're saying there, that's why I said "generally" and "in practice".

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#128
post #104

I’m a bit of an optimist. I think this will smack the hands of developers who don’t manage RAM well and future apps will necessarily be more memory-efficient.

Using a lot less RAM often implies using more CPU, so even with inflated RAM prices, it's not a good tradeoff (at least not in general).

You're thinking an algorithmic tradeoff, but this is an abstraction tradeoff.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think this will smack the hands of developers who don’t manage RAM well And hopefully kill Electron. I have never seen the point of spinning up a 300+Mb app just to display something that ought to need only 500Kb to paint onto the screen.

The point is you can be lazy and write the app in html and js. Then you dont need to write c, even though c syntax is similar to js syntax and most gui apps wont require needing advanced c features if the gui framework is generous enough. Now that everyone who cant be bothered, vibe codes, and electron apps are the overevangelized norm… People will probably not even worry about writing js and electron will be here to…

Honestly C and JavaScript could hardly be more different, as languages.

About the only thing they share is curly braces.

Re: The RAM shortage could last years

#130

Ok so Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron do not have the capacity to meet demand. Also, what little capacity they do have they are allocating to HBM over DRAM. Based on my limited knowledge HBM can not be easily repurposed for consumer electronics. Translation: main street is cooked for the next 3-4 years. It doesn't stop there though. OpenAI is currently mired in a capital crunch. Their last round just about sucked all th…

> Soo ... how sure are we that the memory makers themselves are not going to be the ones holding the bag? We aren't. The remaining memory manufacturers fear getting caught in a "pork cycle" yet again - that is why there's only the three large ones left anyway.

Surely this can be solved with financial engineering. The memory makers build more capacity, but they finance it with something like floating-rate notes linked to an index of memory prices, or even catastrophe bonds or AT1s. Or more crudely, set up special purpose vehicles to build the extra capacity, and issue convertible bonds from those; if the memory market collapses, investors don't get paid, but they do get a memory factory.
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