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Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

theguardian.com

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Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#121

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Mtinie wrote: post #110
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> especially in a multipolar world where American sanctions increasingly fail You're claiming the U.S. government is impotent against holding Polymarket to account? > These markets are global The trades in question are bets on Polymarket and Intercontinental Exchange Brent oil futures. These are well within the remit of American law enforcement.

Why would the U.S. government want to sabotage prediction markets when the chief executive has a vested interest in keeping them legitimate?

> Why would the U.S. government want to sabotage prediction markets when the chief executive has a vested interest in keeping them legitimate?

"Solving" the problem of administration juniors compromising our military for profit doesn't require sabotaging anything. Just the exchanges turning over records.

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#123

Post by airstrike »

slg wrote: post #100

Say whatever you want about the merits of prediction markets. But I just don't see a way those benefits outweigh the societal dangers of these constant reminders that people in or close to power can freely profit from their positions in the ways the rest of the population can't. There's always talk about the dangers of disincentivizing job creators, but what happens when a society routinely disincentives job havers i…

> Say whatever you want about the merits of prediction markets

Go on, I'll wait for those "merits"

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#124

Post by low_tech_love »

ckemere wrote: post #103

Why can’t the markets just forbid transactions that happen within 48 hours of resolution?

Because the markets don’t “forbid” anything, especially when they are profiting from it, which polymarket definitely is. It’s the government who must forbid things for the good of the citizens. But somehow the citizens were dumb enough to fall for the bullshit idea that you should put the same person who is profiting in charge of regulating their own crimes!

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#125

Post by socalgal2 »

beaviskhan wrote: post #9

You'd have to be spectacularly stupid to bet on these kinds of things without having insider knowledge, because you ought to know good and damn well by now that the people with insider knowledge are DEFINITELY betting on them.

Apparently, according to you, lots of people are spectularly stupid because the only way you make money in a prediction market is for someone to bet on the opposing view point.

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#126

Post by a2128 »

janalsncm wrote: post #107
beaviskhan wrote: post #9

You'd have to be spectacularly stupid to bet on these kinds of things without having insider knowledge, because you ought to know good and damn well by now that the people with insider knowledge are DEFINITELY betting on them.

This was my thought. If these markets continue allowing insiders, it’ll drive all of the cash from regular people away. So there will be way less money for insiders to win even if they are allowed. So the perception of insiders is pretty bad for prediction markets as a business imo. The sooner they knock off the rhetoric about the “theory” behind prediction markets and start thinking about it like a business, the soo…

I think the market could adapt if regular people left. Insider trading would become multilayered and complex. Insiders would scheme against lower-level insiders; decisionmakers would try to trick insiders into thinking that one thing will happen before doing the complete opposite thing. The world would become more erratic and unpredictable, even insiders wouldn't know what is going on.

Although Polymarket is currently spending a lot of money trying to market itself to working-class regular people to get hooked and scam their paychecks out of[0]

[0] https://nypost.com/2026/02/12/us-news/nyc-gets-its-first-fre...

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#127

Post by low_tech_love »

hereme888 wrote: post #93

Good for those who made the money. I would have done so had I had such insider info, as long as it didn't compromise any operation.

As long as the hordes of losers are not bothered by it enough to ask for fairness in the business, you’re right. Ethics and morals are constructs with the intention of creating a better, more just common existence. If the people in this common existence don’t care, then there is no reason for them not to do it.

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#128

Post by socalgal2 »

How can I evalutate if this is a real issue for cherry picked. Someone won the lotto last week. They must have had insider knowledge! Oh, no, I forgot to look at all the people who didn't pick a winner.

> Sixteen bets made $100,000 each accurately predicting the timing of the US airstrikes against Iran on 27 February

How many bets and for what ammounts were made for other days, or that it wouldn't happen on the 27th?

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#130

Post by low_tech_love »

SirMaster wrote: post #18
echelon wrote: post #7

What value do prediction markets give to anyone not in the insider trading class? I predict these will be banned when someone finally uses them as an "assassination market".

I thought the point of them is they are “truth machines” they give a financial incentive for the insider class to essentially share what they know. The benefit to those outside the insider class are that we now have a better idea of the potential outcome.

How can anyone differentiate an insider bet from a normal one enough to actually make use of it?
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