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U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

wsj.com

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Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#121

Post by Underqualified »

WillAdams wrote: post #70
grafmax wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny how 401ks can make members of the American public think the stock market is really about them. In capitalism, assets follow a Pareto distribution. A small minority hold the majority of assets.

Yeah, it was a big con to get folks to think that what seemed to them a huge amount of money meant that they were participating in a meaningful fashion. I've never gotten anyone who is educated in economy/finance to provide a reasonable answer to the questions: "Is the world economy large enough to support a meaningful number of people regularly investing in it, arriving at an amount able to support a comfortable ret…

The market is partly a Ponzi scheme where more people buying inflates the price, regardless of the underlying value. The modern stock market is not focused on dividends (anything but), so there is no'real' return from the actual companies to the shareholders. (Buybacks could be considered similar to dividends).

There is still an element of real economic growth underlying the stock market, but passive investing, derivatives and market manipulation have largely decoupled the stock market from the actual economy. At least that's my opinion.

I think the answer to your question would be yes IF: * The world economy keeps growing * There is a fair distribution of the return on the world economy (which there isn't)

Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#122

Post by virgil_disgr4ce »

joe_mamba wrote: post #6

Crazy how for a guy so obsessed with self image and legacy, Trump is leaving behind a world where he'll be known for making everything shit that it was before him. Amazing. How does this happen?

The key insight is that Trump is doing what Trump supporters (and fascists in general) want most: punishing The Enemy/Other. Everything else (including gas and grocery prices, etc) is irrelevant. As long as "immigrants" (the "illegal" facade is done by now) and "liberals" are beaten to death by ICE, Trump supporters will honestly and proudly proclaim that he's doing a fantastic job as president.

Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#123

Post by seanmcdirmid »

WillAdams wrote: post #70
grafmax wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny how 401ks can make members of the American public think the stock market is really about them. In capitalism, assets follow a Pareto distribution. A small minority hold the majority of assets.

Yeah, it was a big con to get folks to think that what seemed to them a huge amount of money meant that they were participating in a meaningful fashion. I've never gotten anyone who is educated in economy/finance to provide a reasonable answer to the questions: "Is the world economy large enough to support a meaningful number of people regularly investing in it, arriving at an amount able to support a comfortable ret…

Investment for retirement…in theory at least, should go to projects that will create more goods and services in the future to actually support that retirement. It isn’t about the economy being large enough today, but growth so that it is larger enough tomorrow when you do actually retire.

Any investment alternative, like a private or public pension, works under the same principle. Even traditional retirement plans depended on investing in having lots of kids to take care of you in old age.

Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#124

Post by [deleted] »

buellerbueller wrote: post #101
GJim wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm guessing that one reason we got Trump is that the Democrats presented two poor alternatives in a row. Oh please. Are you seriously comparing the disaster that is Mango Mussolini to the likes of (practically any) alternative candidate? The sad reality is that the American people wanted Trump and _voted_ for him. TWICE! The rest of the world has come to terms with this and knows there is no going back to the old…

[flagged]

[deleted]

Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#125

Post by iso1631 »

_menelaus wrote: post #115
iso1631 wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you voted for Trump over an inanimate carbon rod then you'd need your head examining. But America still likes him. The only thing that's tarnished him is that it costs a little more to drive a gas guzzler

His approval rating is at a historical low for any president at this point in their term, I think. People don't like ICE, pedophiles, or wars in the Middle East.

Wikipedia says about 40% of America approves of him

Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#126

Post by lotsofpulp »

bilekas wrote: post #113
ericmay wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, in part you are asking about the world economy . Most of the world doesn’t have 401k retirement vehicles, good access to financial markets, or the spare funds to save at all, whether it’s in stocks, bonds, or other investment vehicles. So the reason you haven’t gotten an answer is because your question doesn’t make much sense.

A 401K is just an investment in indexes linked to your pension, there's nothing stopping everyone putting their own money into an index themselves. The question makes sense, how many people could the market support if everyone was investing and not spending.

>how many people could the market support if everyone was investing and not spending.

I think the more salient question is how many people could the market support if everyone was consuming and not producing.

Not producing as in the goods and services that people want such as clean toilets and food and nursing home care. Or not producing the kids who will go on to produce the aforementioned goods and services.

Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#127

Post by mothballed »

bilekas wrote: post #113
ericmay wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, in part you are asking about the world economy . Most of the world doesn’t have 401k retirement vehicles, good access to financial markets, or the spare funds to save at all, whether it’s in stocks, bonds, or other investment vehicles. So the reason you haven’t gotten an answer is because your question doesn’t make much sense.

A 401K is just an investment in indexes linked to your pension, there's nothing stopping everyone putting their own money into an index themselves. The question makes sense, how many people could the market support if everyone was investing and not spending.

An overabundance of investment without an outlet would just decrease yields. Hypothetically the yield could go negative.

It is a self correcting problem. If the yields are too low people can spend it on hookers and blow before dropping it into a money shredder. The yield shouldn't drop much below the premium for the time preference of money.

Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#128

Post by DonnyV »

WillAdams wrote: post #70
grafmax wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny how 401ks can make members of the American public think the stock market is really about them. In capitalism, assets follow a Pareto distribution. A small minority hold the majority of assets.

Yeah, it was a big con to get folks to think that what seemed to them a huge amount of money meant that they were participating in a meaningful fashion. I've never gotten anyone who is educated in economy/finance to provide a reasonable answer to the questions: "Is the world economy large enough to support a meaningful number of people regularly investing in it, arriving at an amount able to support a comfortable ret…

The stock market is a very large Ponzi scheme. 401Ks are indexed Ponzi schemes. Once the ultra wealthy can disconnect their wealth from any one country, using crypto tokens. The stock market and 401Ks will probably crash. You usually want to do this on a generation that has no real voting block. So it will probably happen when GenX starts retiring.

Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#129

Post by WarmWash »

WillAdams wrote: post #70
grafmax wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Funny how 401ks can make members of the American public think the stock market is really about them. In capitalism, assets follow a Pareto distribution. A small minority hold the majority of assets.

Yeah, it was a big con to get folks to think that what seemed to them a huge amount of money meant that they were participating in a meaningful fashion. I've never gotten anyone who is educated in economy/finance to provide a reasonable answer to the questions: "Is the world economy large enough to support a meaningful number of people regularly investing in it, arriving at an amount able to support a comfortable ret…

It's impossible to answer because the language is too imprecise.

Poor people in the US live like gods compared to people living in 3rd world jungles, but they complain just as much if not more.

So you quickly realize that "comfortable" is a relative term, and envy poisons any honest measure of "comfort".

Re: U.S. stocks are set to deliver their worst quarter in nearly four years

#130

Post by everdrive »

blitzar wrote: post #8

I don't know why you are asking about pedophiles and sex trafficing - The Dow is over 50,000 right now, the S&P is at almost 7,000, and the Nasdaq is smashing records. Americans' 401(k) savings are booming, thats what we should be talking about.

It's a quite baffling argument on Bondi's part regardless. As if I wouldn't care about prosecuting sex offenders merely because my 401k was doing well.
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