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Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

newscientist.com

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Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#121

Post by inaros »

GuB-42 wrote: post #120
inaros wrote: post #27

Folks...The US is effectively bankrupt with a 40 Trillion dollars debt in case you did not notice. The US Treasury is just a few minutes away from an economic event, that will force the US government to spend more than 70% to 80% of tax revenues on servicing said debt. There is no scientific or economic case to even go to Mars, much less colonize it. And with the current advances in robotics and automation there is n…

With current technology, there is no way for a robot team to achieve what astronauts can achieve. With future technology, we don't know the future, autonomy is likely to improve, but so do space travel. Even the most advanced experimental robots we have today are closer in intelligence to a pile of rocks than they are to humans. They can do stuff in a controlled environment, and if given precise instructions, but spa…

The Apollo comparison makes no sense. The Moon is 3 days away, Mars is 9 months. Every kilogram of human requires hundreds of kilograms of life support, shielding, food, water, and return fuel. For the cost of ONE crewed mission, you could send 50 to 100 robots to different locations across the planet, operating simultaneously for decades...

The ISS comparison is even worse.... it orbits 400 km from Earth with constant resupply and emergency return in hours. That has zero in common with being trapped on Mars for 2 to 3 years with no rescue. And if a member of the crew dies, a very real probability on a first mission...the political fallout kills the program for a generation.

A robot fails? Send another one...And on the issue of humans being more capable...

Name one thing an astronaut could do on Mars that a well designed robot cant ?

- Drill cores? Perseverance already does it.

- Analyze mineral composition? Curiosity has a full chemistry lab onboard.

- Microscopy? Done remotely since 2004.

- Collect and cache samples? Done.

- Navigate unpredictable terrain autonomously? Done.

- Detect bio signatures? Instruments do it better than human senses ever could.

You can land a robot with a spectrometer, a microscope, a drill, an X-ray diffractometer, and a gas chromatograph, so literally an entire laboratory, and operate it from Earth for a decade at 1/100th the cost.

So what specific scientific task on the Martian surface, requires a human hand, that current or near future robotics and remote operation cannot accomplish?

Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#122

Post by triceratops »

albatross79 wrote: post #118
triceratops wrote: post #23

Between the realism about terraforming Mars and the strong likelihood that faster-than-light travel may never happen, is anyone else feeling a bit melancholic? It feels like a possible future has been taken away from us.

No, because when you grow up life becomes short and full of mundane things like making money and raising children, and you realize those were all fantasies someone made up and sold to you, and even if those things came true it would not suddenly add adventure to your life, which was the real hook.

That's what people said about sailing across the sea, flying, and a million other things as they toiled in the dirt growing beets. Many of those fantasies did come true. Maybe not for the dreamers themselves, but for someone.

Interstellar FTL travel will likely never happen for anyone. There's a difference.

Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#123

Post by giraffe_lady »

card_zero wrote: post #98
giraffe_lady wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have never, even as a proof of concept, been able to develop a closed system capable of supporting mammalian life separate from earth's ecosystems. We assume it's possible based on no particularly rigorous evidence and in spite of our numerous failures to even come close. "Mars as backup" is not a credible plan based on science within even our optimistic grasp. The technology & social systems capable of doing this…

They did a year in the moon base simulator Yuegong-1, apparently.

Peaked at about half the food produced internally iirc and it’s like three people. It’s a good and necessary start but shows just how incredibly far we are from the real deal.

Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#124

Post by slumberlust »

krunck wrote: post #102
inaros wrote: post #27

Folks...The US is effectively bankrupt with a 40 Trillion dollars debt in case you did not notice. The US Treasury is just a few minutes away from an economic event, that will force the US government to spend more than 70% to 80% of tax revenues on servicing said debt. There is no scientific or economic case to even go to Mars, much less colonize it. And with the current advances in robotics and automation there is n…

Better to divert money to space exploration than to use it for war on the only planet we currently have.

If your goal is to accelerate access to earth ending technology, then sure.

We should probably figure out how to get along before we eqiup people with asteroid flinging tech.

Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#126

Post by inaros »

glenstein wrote: post #49

Currently reading Blue Mars, the third and final book in the trilogy. It's amazingly fascinating but also exhausting. I say with full seriousness it may be best to read this with a very specific high resolution full color map of Mars on your wall somewhere. If anything KSR is not giving himself as much credit as he deserves, as personal AIs show up in ways that are remarkably salient and similar to what we're current…

"Kim Stanley Robinson: Origins of the Red Mars Trilogy" - https://youtu.be/zn2Van5cZD4

Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#127

Post by slumberlust »

dmix wrote: post #110
inaros wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are not in a meeting at SpaceX trying to please Elon. I dont think you realize what you are up against...Do you know what radiation does to humans? For example Suni Williams went to the ISS and got stuck for 9 months. Come back white haired, with bone loss, muscle wasting, and vision damage. She retired from NASA within months. And the ISS is inside Earth magnetosphere... FYI Mars has no magnetic field and almost…

SpaceX already shifted to focus on a Moon base and away from Mars. The original plan was to send a few self-financed Starships to Mars as a first step which sounded reasonable as an experiment. Nothing wrong with dreaming about solving hard problems like radiation and how to manage logistics at such a distance. Even if a human base ends up not making sense most of that stuff would still support a robotic base doing m…

You might enjoy A City On Mars by the Wienersmiths. There's a lot to consider that you are glossing over.

Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#128

Post by GuB-42 »

inaros wrote: post #121
GuB-42 wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With current technology, there is no way for a robot team to achieve what astronauts can achieve. With future technology, we don't know the future, autonomy is likely to improve, but so do space travel. Even the most advanced experimental robots we have today are closer in intelligence to a pile of rocks than they are to humans. They can do stuff in a controlled environment, and if given precise instructions, but spa…

The Apollo comparison makes no sense. The Moon is 3 days away, Mars is 9 months. Every kilogram of human requires hundreds of kilograms of life support, shielding, food, water, and return fuel. For the cost of ONE crewed mission, you could send 50 to 100 robots to different locations across the planet, operating simultaneously for decades... The ISS comparison is even worse.... it orbits 400 km from Earth with consta…

> So what specific scientific task on the Martian surface, requires a human hand, that current or near future robotics and remote operation cannot accomplish?

We don't know, and that's the entire point, we'll we when we get there. But there is at least one thing that cannot be done by robots, and that's studying how humans are doing on Mars. In the same way that a significant fraction of the research being done on the ISS is about human biology.

And sure, a human Mars mission is going to be extremely expensive, but I think it is worth it. It not only has scientific value, if only for the biological aspect, but it also has great symbolic value. The only thing that makes me uncomfortable is the idea that we are sacks of microbes, and by getting there, there is a good chance for us to contaminate the planet, possibly killing any chance we may have at discovering Martian life.

Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#129

Post by jandrese »

mekdoonggi wrote: post #85
jandrese wrote: post #35

I mean he had to invent a decent amount of magic technology (the radiation proof tent material for just one example) and purposely not do the math on other parts to make his story work. IMHO the biggest tell that Elon has never been serious about Mars is that he has been completely focused on the rocket and has severely neglected the actual hard part of the problem: The self sustained habitat for the people to live i…

I'm as big of an Elon-hater as you'll find, but I kind of have to disagree. Working on the habitat before the rocket is cart before horse. The rocket is a prerequisite to even an experimental trip to Mars. If we ever do actually colonize Mars, the progression would look something like: 1. Experimental missions 2. Small but permanent settlement made out of Starships cobbled together 3. New construction with increasing…

IMHO, to achieve anything close to the timelines Elon has publicly stated you need to do both at once. The habitats are a decade long development effort at a minimum. The capacity and dimensions of the launch vehicle are known, there is no reason to not be working on the prototypes now.

There is so much foundational technology that has to be developed first to even make them a possibility. Even your step 2 requires them to be fully developed and reliable, because there is no flying in spares from Earth if something breaks down. If I were to give Elon the benefit of the doubt this would be one of the factors in the refocus on the Moon base, but even that is dubious. I still think the "make humanity multi-planetary" talk is a diversion.

Re: Author of Red Mars calls 'bullshit' on emigrating to the planet

#130

Post by albatross79 »

triceratops wrote: post #122
albatross79 wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, because when you grow up life becomes short and full of mundane things like making money and raising children, and you realize those were all fantasies someone made up and sold to you, and even if those things came true it would not suddenly add adventure to your life, which was the real hook.

That's what people said about sailing across the sea, flying, and a million other things as they toiled in the dirt growing beets. Many of those fantasies did come true. Maybe not for the dreamers themselves, but for someone. Interstellar FTL travel will likely never happen for anyone. There's a difference.

So? Flying is a chore. What do you expect to find with FTL travel anyway? We pretty much know what's out there and it doesn't look all that interesting. It's a lot of rocks. Maybe there are some weird life forms that would be interesting in an academic way.

Otherwise it looks very much like we are outliers and that nature's purpose, if it has any, is different and orthogonal to ours. This human drama is just a side show.

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