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Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

theguardian.com

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Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#121

Post by bethekidyouwant »

echelon wrote: post #109
bethekidyouwant wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s not true. Consider a jar of jellybeans.

A "market" is hypothesized to be "efficient" at price discovery. An efficient "prediction market" would more quickly resolve to its expected outcome due to not only skin-in-the-game bets by experts, but also the influence of insiders. Furthermore, bets are likely to shape outcomes. Betting someone will be assassinated (not allowed on Polymarket) would likely increase the probability of that outcome had there been no…

I’ve heard this assassination thing said, but I don’t see it. Someone still has to kill said person and somehow profit from the unlikelihood of this outcome. I’m not saying it’s impossible but I’m just saying that it’s never happened and maybe never will.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#122

Post by hatthew »

Karrot_Kream wrote: post #20

Couldn't insiders just trade Brent Crude futures and do the same thing? There's more than enough liquidity in Brent that an insider can make great money.

Not familiar with Brent Crude futures, is it possible to trade them anonymously the way you can on Polymarket?

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#123

Post by netsharc »

mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

Isn't the problem that they can't end the war unilaterally? The Iranian regime is justifiably pissed off and is still flinging drones and rockets towards any viable target, and any ceasefire will be with acceptance of their terms. The Trump/Netanyahu collection of dumb ego won't be able to accept being dictated terms.

So like in Game of Thrones, we hope a Jamie Lannister shows up...

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#124

Post by Lerc »

colechristensen wrote: post #97
broof wrote: post #83

Isn’t one of the points of betting markets is to incentivize this? Now me, as someone who doesn’t have access to insider knowledge, can know that there’s a noticeably increased chance of what’s going to happen. I do think maybe there should be some sort of feature to prevent last minute bets that utilizes insider knowledge, and I do admit there are considerable negative externalities to this system but it’s not clear…

The same logic can be used the opposite way, you can, with large amounts of money, manipulate events or people's responses to them. * you can place large bets on events you have influence on the outcome for and make large amounts of money * you can place large bets on events and then threaten people who have influence with a big stick * you can place large bets expecting to lose money in order to change the outcome o…

There was recently a story about a reporter who faced threats because their reporting contained a detail that while not significantly impactful (although about a literal impact) in it's own right changed the win conditions on a prediction bet.

I think prediction markets worked as an idea to provide a wisdom of the crowd view when they were being used in good faith, but rewards cause people to prioritise winning and gaming the system pays better than playing fairly.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#126

Post by broof »

lovich wrote: post #100
phil21 wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh what? It’s literally the only reason for prediction markets to exist. Otherwise they are simple gambling and pointless. The only way you get more wisdom from “the crowd” is if it teases folks who hold non-public (or at least less public) information into the market to refine the odds towards what they should be. Without insider information the entire concept is dead on arrival. Yes randos are gonna gamble because…

War is peace. Ignorance is strength. Openly corrupt markets that feature insiders with secret knowledge taking money from gambling addicts and rubes is actually good cause the crowd is now wiser.

Unironically yes. Someone bet a mid sized amount and now we all share in that potential insider knowledge. A small scale example is my spouse said that the election odds from her home country were not realistic because all the westerners were betting a candidate would win but weren’t accounting for corruption that she felt was guaranteed to happen. Turns out she was right.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#128

Post by broof »

peter422 wrote: post #98
broof wrote: post #83

Isn’t one of the points of betting markets is to incentivize this? Now me, as someone who doesn’t have access to insider knowledge, can know that there’s a noticeably increased chance of what’s going to happen. I do think maybe there should be some sort of feature to prevent last minute bets that utilizes insider knowledge, and I do admit there are considerable negative externalities to this system but it’s not clear…

Can we at least debate the obvious externality that an insider might skew their advice or actions to personally profit instead of doing whatever they think is most appropriate for their job? That seems like a big one

Yeah I agree that there are big negative externalities and this is one. I’m more talking about is someone with insider knowledge but not the ability to influence - is that a bad thing specifically for these type of markets?

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#129

Post by netsharc »

TacticalCoder wrote: post #63
tmnvix wrote: post #15

> “For the purposes of this market, an ‘official ceasefire agreement’ requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.” (by March 31) Seems a rather risky bet considering how deep Israel has ventured into its war in Lebanon. Very doubtful they will stop anytime soon. Given the leverage Israel ha…

[flagged]

As Sun Tzu wrote in the Art of War (a much shittier book than Art of the Deal /s), always give your enemy a way out. Otherwise they will fight to their death...

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#130

Post by roadside_picnic »

Karrot_Kream wrote: post #20

Couldn't insiders just trade Brent Crude futures and do the same thing? There's more than enough liquidity in Brent that an insider can make great money.

That more-or-less happened over the weekend [0]. Five minutes before Trump's unsurprising TACO announcement an unexpected large number of WTI futures contracts were sold and an even larger amount of S&P 500 futures were purchased.

0. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/03/23/volume-in-stock-and-oil-...

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