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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#121

Post by fhdkweig »

bcrosby95 wrote: post #107
fhdkweig wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On that topic, how many presidents in the past have had merch stores after elected? I can understand fundraising during a campaign, but after winning or losing, the fundraising usually stops.

Merch. NFTs. Playing cards. Crypto coins. A phone. It's like we have Dennis Duffy as POTUS. If it were 40 years ago it would be like Reagan starting his own MLM.

And the worst part is, I don't think we will ever close this door. Even if the Democrats are in charge of the next presidency, the temptation of easy money will be too strong to resist. It wasn't done in the past, because it was assumed that the people would push back severely, but now that it is clear that they won't, it is full speed ahead.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#122

Post by michaelchisari »

specproc wrote: post #102
looksjjhg wrote: post #7

It’s amazing and terrifying watching an empire die

I spent a fair bit of time in the former Soviet Union, what happened there is instructive for what comes next. I think we will see, across the West broadly, to varying extents: - peripheral states flipping (e.g., Baltics) - widespread looting of public assets, a new oligarchal class minted - total destruction of the middle class, particularly those with ties to government and NGOs (I'm in this camp and miserable for…

The collapse of the Soviet Union was ahistorical in many ways. It's rare that collapse of an empire can be pinpointed to a single day. And what you saw was a result of shock therapy imposed from the outside. I doubt that would happen to the US.

It's unlikely collapse will be felt as a singular, apocalyptic event. More like a slow, steady loss of influence and excess wealth. Countries on the periphery stop considering the empire's perspectives before making their own decisions. Other trading partners emerge. Bridges stop getting maintained until they're no longer usable.

And soft power declines. Imagine a day when the biggest pop star in the US, someone on the scale of Michael Jackson or Madonna nationally, is virtually unknown outside of its borders.

There are reasons to believe the American empire is in decline, but I maintain this will look more like Britain. It could take 50 years before American fully realize it.

Thankfully, that means there's plenty of time to reverse or mitigate the trends, or to make a decision to strengthen the Republic over the Empire.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#123

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

tehjoker wrote: post #89
varispeed wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

We are tightly integrated with Israel, joined at the hip, but you realize we are at war with Russia right? If we were controlled by Russia, we would not be at war with them.

Many parents that nominally "control" their children might take issue with this claim.

I don't have a particular position on the actual "controlled by Russia" claim.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#124

Post by SoftTalker »

hattmall wrote: post #83
alexfromapex wrote: post #50

[flagged]

The issue is that this isn't really supply constrained inflation. This is price discovery and discrimination by major retailers. The amount of coupons, conditional sale prices, and member savings has skyrocketed. I have paid rather intense attention to the price of groceries since 2015 when I started purchasing for my business kitchen as we started providing prepared meals. In general, prices are very close to 2015 l…

Beef is an outlier though. $20-$30/lb for supermarket quality is quite a lot.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#125

Post by hackyhacky »

quacked wrote: post #60
mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

The frustrating thing about the empire collapse is that it doesn't need to happen. There are still tons of highly energized and ostensibly disciplined and competitive people here. It's just that the production base was sold off to foreign lands and the aesthetic and moral project of "America" was effectively discontinued, for reasons unclear.

> It's just that the production base was sold off to foreign lands

It wasn't. You are conflating "production" with "manufacturing." They're not the same. The US, for better or worse, produces a lot of value.

> moral project of "America" was effectively discontinued

I'm not sure America was ever a "moral project," considering the many many dark parts of its history. Nevertheless, at the moment moment, it seems to be on a quest find the bottom of the pit of depravity.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#126

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

specproc wrote: post #102
looksjjhg wrote: post #7

It’s amazing and terrifying watching an empire die

I spent a fair bit of time in the former Soviet Union, what happened there is instructive for what comes next. I think we will see, across the West broadly, to varying extents: - peripheral states flipping (e.g., Baltics) - widespread looting of public assets, a new oligarchal class minted - total destruction of the middle class, particularly those with ties to government and NGOs (I'm in this camp and miserable for…

There will be no "peripheral states flipping" in the USA. Secession is not an option here.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#127

Post by patmorgan23 »

iugtmkbdfil834 wrote: post #109
jeffbee wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a substantive complaint to make about the BLS methodology? So far all I see in your remark is shadowstats vibes.

I can't tell if you are serious or not. Lets assume for a moment that there was once a benefit to BLS survey methodology ( I would argue otherwise, but w/e ). Is it a good methodology today? So my main argument ( and frankly the only argument that should matter ) is that is a bad fit for the goal of estimating values ( even though we do know its failure modes ). Is that not enough?

What are the alternatives, and do other countries labor statistics agencies use them?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#128

Post by throwawaypath »

kittikitti wrote: post #77

People in Florida, when I tell them about my background working with data, often scoff and claim that the data can be changed to spread lies. They have a government who arrested a data scientist when she published information about Coronavirus. This is prevalent across all of America, especially after DOGE, who encourage fraud so the data supports their political interests. I think the reliability problem is very bad…

>They have a government who arrested a data scientist when she published information about Coronavirus

That was fake news:

In May 2020, Jones was terminated from her position managing the team that created Florida's ArcGIS COVID-19 dashboard after being repeatedly reprimanded for sharing the department's work online without authorization. Jones alleged instead that she was told to manipulate the dashboard's data and that her firing was retaliation for her refusal. The OIG exonerated state health officials, finding her allegations to be unsubstantiated and unfounded. Jones later posted on social media a forgery of the dismissal letter from the Florida Commission on Human Relations, such that it appeared that her complaint had been validated.

In December 2022, she signed a deferred prosecution agreement admitting guilt to unauthorized use of the state's emergency alert system on November 10, 2020, which resulted in her home being searched under warrant by state police in December 2020. The execution of the warrant with armed police, widely referred to as a raid, was due to a 2016 battery charge against Jones by the Louisiana State University police. In 2023, Jones pled no-contest to a 2019 charge of cyberstalking a former Florida State University student. She was fired from both institutions.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebekah_Jones

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#129

Post by _zagj »

rf15 wrote: post #14
echelon wrote: post #3

I feel like we're dancing on the razor's edge. On the one hand: high inflation, tariffs, layoffs, unemployment, high interest rate, energy crisis. Tons of economic red flags flashing. On the other hand: AI is showing signs of being the next industrial revolution, we're re-industrializing, onshoring/friendshoring, and have a clear lead on chips and space tech at a time when it matters the most. It's absolutely insane…

You really do not understand how interdependent everyone is. The chip machines Taiwan uses come from Europe, for example. The US kneecapped itself for no reason.

> The chip machines Taiwan uses come from Europe, for example.

Yeah, the EUV photolithography machine, but not much else. American companies like Lam Research and Applied Materials are the leaders in thin film deposition and etch, KLA Tencor is the leader in metrology, and Synopsys and Cadance are the leaders in EDA (though there's also Germany's Mentor Graphics).

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#130

Post by Aurornis »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

> Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries.

This is a big claim. What other countries? What are their methods and how do they differ?

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