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Starlink militarization and its impact on global strategic stability (2023)

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Re: Starlink militarization and its impact on global strategic stability (2023)

#121

Post by 15155 »

justsomehnguy wrote: post #118
ftth_finland wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Simple solutions: block all Starlink terminals that aren’t whitelisted upon entering Russian territory or Ukrainian conflict zones. This will prevent Russians importing Starlink terminals and then deploying them in Ukraine. Work with Ukrainians to whitelist all their terminals.

It's beyond sickening what none of you even bother with the idea what a civilian service should not be used by the military, especially in the zone of the conflict - by any side.

"Civilian service" - lol.

SpaceX is a privately-owned defense services company. Their #1 client is the United States. Their launches out of Vandenberg occur because the United States Space Force allows them to happen.

Are you on their board? Who are you to make the call that the product they are offering is a "civilian" (only?) service?

Re: Starlink militarization and its impact on global strategic stability (2023)

#122

Post by [deleted] »

justsomehnguy wrote: post #118
ftth_finland wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Simple solutions: block all Starlink terminals that aren’t whitelisted upon entering Russian territory or Ukrainian conflict zones. This will prevent Russians importing Starlink terminals and then deploying them in Ukraine. Work with Ukrainians to whitelist all their terminals.

It's beyond sickening what none of you even bother with the idea what a civilian service should not be used by the military, especially in the zone of the conflict - by any side.

[deleted]

Re: Starlink militarization and its impact on global strategic stability (2023)

#123

Post by redgridtactical »

wmf wrote: post #109
redgridtactical wrote: post #101

The dual-use problem with Starlink is really just the most visible version of something happening across the military. Phones with civilian GPS chips are increasingly used alongside dedicated mil-spec hardware, simply because the commercial stuff is more usable and gets updated faster. The real strategic question isn't whether Starlink can be weaponized - of course it can - it's what happens when military operations…

Isn't virtually all military hardware and software single-sourced? Ultimately they trust the supplier and have good contracts. I imagine the US military is migrating to Starshield over time where they have a better SLA.

Fair point on single-sourcing, but the difference is that Lockheed doesn't have a consumer business that creates geopolitical incidents on Twitter. Traditional defense contractors are purpose-built for that relationship. With Starlink, you've got a commercial network serving 80+ countries that also happens to be critical military infrastructure. Starshield helps on the SLA side, but the underlying constellation is still shared. What does "good contracts" even look like when the asset is literally in orbit and serving both markets simultaneously?

Re: Starlink militarization and its impact on global strategic stability (2023)

#124

Post by redgridtactical »

fny wrote: post #115
wmf wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't virtually all military hardware and software single-sourced? Ultimately they trust the supplier and have good contracts. I imagine the US military is migrating to Starshield over time where they have a better SLA.

The other consideration is that the kill switch is ultimately controlled by the US. The US government can easily commandeer Starlink or jail Musk, but other countries use starlink at the pleasure of both Musk and the US government.

That's the part that makes allied nations nervous. If you're running military comms through Starlink and the US decides to play hardball in some trade dispute, your entire C2 network just became a bargaining chip. Ukraine showed how quickly access decisions become political. I think we'll see European and Asian allies start investing in their own LEO constellations specifically because of this - nobody wants their military dependent on another country's CEO.

Re: Starlink militarization and its impact on global strategic stability (2023)

#125

Post by XorNot »

dev1ycan wrote: post #114

We are already in some sense past the threshold of sats required for a potential civlizational collapse that would be caused by the loss of access to space. There are way too many sattelites, starlink militarizing means it's a viable target now for enemy nations, any one of them taking out a couple sats and causing debris would cause a chain reaction that would effectively turn space into a dump, let's not even menti…

...there was civilization long before satellites.

The relative impact of Kessler syndrome is honestly overblown: we're simply not that dependent on satellites for day to day activities. It would be an economic disaster, but those aren't civilization ending.

Re: Starlink militarization and its impact on global strategic stability (2023)

#126

Post by [deleted] »

cesarvarela wrote: post #108
throwaway5752 wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Conspiracy theories aren't very productive. But the one thing that continues to bother me is how there is no great explanation for why TSLA is still worth much. It's a shrinking car company that is failing to execute at FSD and says it's going to make humanoid robots instead of cars. There is no good reason TSLA should be valued any more than 10% of its current valuation, and even that would be rich. There is a fine…

It is just a bet on Elon’s vision, nothing more, you put a little money there, many people do the same, price go up. Just that. There are no other companies in the same position as Tesla, time will tell if it succeeds or not.

[deleted]

Re: Starlink militarization and its impact on global strategic stability (2023)

#127

Post by nradov »

wmf wrote: post #109
redgridtactical wrote: post #101

The dual-use problem with Starlink is really just the most visible version of something happening across the military. Phones with civilian GPS chips are increasingly used alongside dedicated mil-spec hardware, simply because the commercial stuff is more usable and gets updated faster. The real strategic question isn't whether Starlink can be weaponized - of course it can - it's what happens when military operations…

Isn't virtually all military hardware and software single-sourced? Ultimately they trust the supplier and have good contracts. I imagine the US military is migrating to Starshield over time where they have a better SLA.

It's not a matter of migration. The US military used Starshield from the start and never relied on Starlink for anything important.

Re: Starlink militarization and its impact on global strategic stability (2023)

#128

Post by nradov »

redgridtactical wrote: post #123
wmf wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't virtually all military hardware and software single-sourced? Ultimately they trust the supplier and have good contracts. I imagine the US military is migrating to Starshield over time where they have a better SLA.

Fair point on single-sourcing, but the difference is that Lockheed doesn't have a consumer business that creates geopolitical incidents on Twitter. Traditional defense contractors are purpose-built for that relationship. With Starlink, you've got a commercial network serving 80+ countries that also happens to be critical military infrastructure. Starshield helps on the SLA side, but the underlying constellation is st…

Starshield has a separate dedicated constellation and can also use the civilian Starlink constellation for certain purposes. This is not a problem. The US government has direct operational control for everything they need. No one of any importance cares about "incidents" on X.

Re: Starlink militarization and its impact on global strategic stability (2023)

#129

Post by hereme888 »

modeless wrote: post #7

Why is Chinese army propaganda on this site? It's not news that the PLA will oppose technology that gives the US military an advantage.

It really is that simple. Straight up CCP propaganda translated from a Chinese journal, written by Chinese professors worried about Chinese national security.

Re: Starlink militarization and its impact on global strategic stability (2023)

#130

Post by nradov »

redgridtactical wrote: post #124
fny wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The other consideration is that the kill switch is ultimately controlled by the US. The US government can easily commandeer Starlink or jail Musk, but other countries use starlink at the pleasure of both Musk and the US government.

That's the part that makes allied nations nervous. If you're running military comms through Starlink and the US decides to play hardball in some trade dispute, your entire C2 network just became a bargaining chip. Ukraine showed how quickly access decisions become political. I think we'll see European and Asian allies start investing in their own LEO constellations specifically because of this - nobody wants their mi…

European and Asian allies would have to start by investing in low-cost launch capabilities. So far they're making approximately zero progress in that area.

The reality is that all US allies except for maybe France no longer have the capability to project power much outside their own territory without active US support. It's not only satellites. They're also missing just about everything else such as logistics, specialized aircraft, air defense, amphibious capabilities, intelligence, etc. With largely stagnant economies there's no way they can sustain the funding necessary to close those gaps unless they join together in closer alliances with each other.

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