Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you have testable hypothesis for how the 10x will manifest? I.e., is there a way we could (coarsely) measure this in a year or two from now?
The future will not be evenly distributed. You can't expect to see it in the productivity of the industry as a whole, or even the productivity of a large company. You might be able to see it in a medium-sized team if you measure carefully.
Grief and the AI split
121–130 of 404 posts
Re: Grief and the AI split
#122Author doesn't care about their blog writing as craft, either (it's been fed through an LLM.)
Re: Grief and the AI split
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you have testable hypothesis for how the 10x will manifest? I.e., is there a way we could (coarsely) measure this in a year or two from now?
The future will not be evenly distributed. You can't expect to see it in the productivity of the industry as a whole, or even the productivity of a large company. You might be able to see it in a medium-sized team if you measure carefully.
What I believe is that early prototype development and pivoting is insanely fast now. And if you find excellent engineers who are also great product people, and then pair them with people who have truly great ideas, many wonderful new products will emerge.
Re: Grief and the AI split
#124Strong agree. Needs another pass or two at editing though, some painful LLM-os sticking out there :'(
Re: Grief and the AI split
#125I'll argue it. Technically, there's no loss IMO, only gain. Craft lovers can still lovingly craft away, even if they have to do it on their own time instead of on their now-AI-dominated day job, just like in ye olde days. Nothing's stopping them.
But now result chasers can get results faster in their chasing. Or get results at all. I'm a proud result chaser now making serious progress on various projects that I've had on ice anywhere from months to years and occasionally lamented not having time/energy for them. And I also note my stable of tools, for both AI-related dev and other things, has grown greatly in a short period of time. And I'm loving it.
Re: Grief and the AI split
#126I’ve heard this thesis a lot, but it’s almost always from the result chasers. It doesn’t resonate with me because I am a result chaser. I like woodworking because I like building something that never existed before. I don’t mind using a CNC router or a 3 printer to help me out. I don’t care about the process, I care about the result. But I care deeply about the quality of the result. I don’t care about the beauty of…
I've been saying this too. The 10x engineer stuff simply cannot make sense unless previously you were spending 90%+ of your day just writing coding and now that's dropped to single digits because AI can generate it. If you spent 20-30% of your day coding before and the rest thinking about the problem, thinking about good UX, etc, then AI coding assistances mathematically cannot make you a 10x engineer. At a push they might make you a 2x engineer.
Given this I think I realised something earlier about my own output... I'm probably just a unusually good coder. I've been doing this since I was a kid so writing and reading code is basically second nature to me. When I was a young teen I would literally take my laptop on holiday with me just so I could write code - I was just that kind of person.
So I've basically always been the strongest or one of the strongest coders on any team I've been on. I very rarely have to think about how to do something in code. It's hard to think back to a time when code was a significant bottleneck for me.
However, my output was never really faster than anyone else when it come to shipping, but the quality of my output has always been wayyy higher. And I think that was because I always spent a lot more time thinking and iterating to get the best result, while other people I work with spent far more time writing code and just trying to get something they could PR.
My problem now is that the people I work, some of whom can't even read code, are able to spit out thousands of lines of code a day. So this forcing me to cut corners just to keep up with the rest of the team.
6-12 months ago I'd get at least 2-3 calls a day from people on my team asking for help to write some code. Now they just ask the AI. I haven't had someone ask me a coding related question in months at this point.
I find this frustrating to be honest. I'm seeing bad decisions everywhere in the code. For example, often a change is hard because it's a bad idea. Perhaps a page on a website doesn't really look great on mobile or desktop. Previously you would have had to think about how you could come up with a good responsive design and implement the right breakpoints. But now people can just ask Claude Code to build a completely different page for mobile, so they do. For a human that would be a huge effort, even if someone who stupid enough to think that was a good idea they probably be forced to do something thats easier to maintain and implement, but an AI? Who cares. It works. The AI isn't going to tell you no.
I know the quality of code is dropping. I see the random bugs from people clearly not understanding what Claude is writing, but if they can just ask the AI to fix it, does it even matter?
> All of those things does boost my productivity I think, but maybe somewhere in the order of 10% all in.
I'm very much like you. AI doesn't really boost my productivity at all but that's because I care about what I build and don't find coding hard. So AI doesn't really offer me anything. All it's doing is making people who don't care what their building and don't care about the quality of their code more productive. And putting me under pressure to trade quality for velocity.
Re: Grief and the AI split
#127Author doesn't care about their blog writing as craft, either (it's been fed through an LLM.)
Sure, I ran the post past an LLM for some ideas on clarity and tightening it up - but I wrote, edited, and published it myself.
Re: Grief and the AI split
#128The important thing to remember is that for a large number of people (in the US), "work" is a place where they do things that they hate for eight hours a day, for people they hate (surveys routinely show between 40% and 60% of people are "satisfied" with their jobs). Those of us who are in the tech industry because we like actually programming computers (the "craft-lovers", in the parlance of this blog post) have bee…
I agree some people go to work to work, and claude is find / good for them, but I feel that characterization of us who are loving claude is disingenuous. I’m a creative, while I loved coding and honed my craft, it was creating that always had me hooked. Claude is creating on steroids. Not to mention, it can help you massively improve your code cleanliness. All of the little nice-to-have features, the cleanups, the hi…
Before moving to agentic AI, I thought I'd miss the craftsmanship aspect. Not at all. I get great satisfaction out of having AI write readable, maintainable code with me in the driver's seat.
Re: Grief and the AI split
#129Earlier quoted context omitted.
That’s not the point of nor the reason for knowledge work. The fundamental mechanism of knowledge work is people. They haven’t changed at all. And what they need to understand and learn hasn’t changed. All the agents in the world and all of the methane guzzling data centres can’t tell you what to write in the specification nor if what the computer has generated faithfully implements that specification.
Yep. Most knowledge work is about coordination between people and transporting the right information to the people that are thinking and the people that are doing (not always separate groups, but can be one group switching mode). You need people because there's a lot of shared context between individuals in society that is not encoded anywhere.
It sounds like we’re headed towards… the guy in Office Space who took specifications from the customer via a secretary and gave those to the engineers (and we know what happened to him).
But I’m not sure that’s a thing, at least for long, either. The original super power of these things wasn’t that they could write code. It was that they could very competently extract meaning from natural language, debug what you were saying from the terrible way you expressed it, and still formulate competent answers.
That doesn’t sound like a comfortable place for former devs to sit for the next few years.
Re: Grief and the AI split
#130The important thing to remember is that for a large number of people (in the US), "work" is a place where they do things that they hate for eight hours a day, for people they hate (surveys routinely show between 40% and 60% of people are "satisfied" with their jobs). Those of us who are in the tech industry because we like actually programming computers (the "craft-lovers", in the parlance of this blog post) have bee…
I agree some people go to work to work, and claude is find / good for them, but I feel that characterization of us who are loving claude is disingenuous. I’m a creative, while I loved coding and honed my craft, it was creating that always had me hooked. Claude is creating on steroids. Not to mention, it can help you massively improve your code cleanliness. All of the little nice-to-have features, the cleanups, the hi…
It can help if you write poor code without it, probably
High unit test coverage only means something if you carefully check those tests, and if everything was tested