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Most of the US economy is in a recession

businessinsider.com

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Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#121

Post by standardUser »

dzonga wrote: post #80

that's pretty obvious to everyone in the US what's not obvious to most people - is how e.g other countries that are already struggling will get into deeper depths e.g UK where cost of energy was super high. UK is not bombing Iran, but their economy will cry more than the US what's not obvious is how a few oil Barrons will make so much money in the next few weeks e.g those in Texas - their great grand-children will ne…

This is one of likely many shocks that will reward those nations that are leading on cutting fossil fuel use - and punish the laggards.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#122

Post by tastyface »

vrosas wrote: post #31
eunos wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even if Trump goes Taco, Khamenei Jr won't accept. Remember the adversary also get a vote.

Mojtaba will be dead within a month. What would it say about the entire operation if they just backed off and let Khamenei’s son take over?

I imagine much of US/Israeli intel has been burned on the initial strike, and it's not that hard to hide someone in a bunker at the end of the day.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#123

Post by testbjjl »

maxerickson wrote: post #112
testbjjl wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They asked Trump what he thought could go wrong. His only response was appointing a leader worse than the last. That took just over a week and now our $1b per day is going to skyrocket when troops are deployed. Trump has to focus on federalism of elections to stop from being nurtured in November. There was never a plan and he fractured his base. I am not sure how this helps average Americans. Perhaps we’ll have some…

Federalism is the opposite of federal control, which I think you mean. Also, you probably mean neutered.

Proves I am not AI? You’re right, fighting allergies at the moment in a tub full of OTC concoctions.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#124

Post by vld_chk »

amazingamazing wrote: post #98

2023 - "The US is already in a 'rolling recession'": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-mi... 2024 - vibe cession: https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-pessimistic-on-eco... 2025 - "a recession in 2025": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/2025-stock-m... people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems.

to be fair, it implies nothing about current state of the US economy and likelihood of recession now. Induction conclusion is not the one which suits the case.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#125

Post by awesome_dude »

donavanm wrote: post #102
dzonga wrote: post #80

that's pretty obvious to everyone in the US what's not obvious to most people - is how e.g other countries that are already struggling will get into deeper depths e.g UK where cost of energy was super high. UK is not bombing Iran, but their economy will cry more than the US what's not obvious is how a few oil Barrons will make so much money in the next few weeks e.g those in Texas - their great grand-children will ne…

> if you're in the UK, Middle East, Australia (food is about to become more expensive & tricky) Australias not in a terrible position. We produce ~50% of our NPK fertilizers used, and this is down primarily because were importing more from places with cheaper/distant environmental impact. Conversely, IIRC, UK and Ineos just shut down their significant last fertilizer plant and the north sea fields is its own thing. S…

The Australians are currently pointing to diesel reserves or on hand in the farms is quite low, suggesting that mechanised cropping/transport of farm products is going to provide a pinch point.

I have no idea if the reports are accurate, or an attempt to put the market into readiness for inflation.

edit: Whether real or imagined, there is panic buying of petrol happening - this could lead to supply issues by itself.

https://www.reddit.com/r/australia/comments/1rohwzl/fuel_pan...

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#126

Post by AuthAuth »

vesrah wrote: post #45
_heimdall wrote: post #42

The most compelling hypothesis I've heard for why Iran is bombing GC neighbors is in an attempt to pop the AI bubble. I obviously don't know if that's true, but that would be extremely clever and this article shows how effective it could be.

I found this video pretty interesting, it talks about why Iran is going after its neighbors. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIS2eB-rGv0

This is like getting info from Grokipedia. This guy is a crank.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#127

Post by rngfnby »

stoneman24 wrote: post #104
rngfnby wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My understanding is that, until the hits on Tehrans oil storage sites yesterday, the oil infrastructure has been spared. Nothing that isn't easy to repair. Ie the price increase we've seen so far os mostly pricing the closing of the staits and the risk of reduced production production is halted due to running out of storage (ie akin to a cpu "pipeline stall". But Iran got hit badly yesterday, with tar raining on the…

If the wells have been throttled back or stopped. There can be issues when production is reduced (or even worse stopped), restarting & resuming the previous production rates can be very difficult and time consuming. There’s a lot of complex multi-phase physics that can prevent the restart. Sometimes wells, just don’t restart. I hope that you are right and we are just filling the storage tanks and waiting for the stra…

Producers have already been announcing force majure to legally stop production.

Qatar gas being the big one for LNG. It'll takes them two weeks to restart four to get to full production. So a tight LNG market has 20% of the world production out for three weeks.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#128

Post by chneu »

bluegatty wrote: post #82
_heimdall wrote: post #42

The most compelling hypothesis I've heard for why Iran is bombing GC neighbors is in an attempt to pop the AI bubble. I obviously don't know if that's true, but that would be extremely clever and this article shows how effective it could be.

The gulf states are US allies that can much more easily be hit + cause damage. They are Iran's regional enemies, that the US is effectively defending them from. Spooking the their leaders + population puts a huge amount of pressure on Trump. Iran has been successful in hitting Patriot and THAAD radars, those are massively expensive, years to replace. If those go down, then Iran can 'terrorize' the region at will incl…

I'm expecting China to go after Taiwan any day now. Im assuming they're waiting for the US to move more resources to the ME so they can get a jump.

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#129

Post by monero-xmr »

amazingamazing wrote: post #98

2023 - "The US is already in a 'rolling recession'": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-mi... 2024 - vibe cession: https://www.businessinsider.com/consumers-pessimistic-on-eco... 2025 - "a recession in 2025": https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/2025-stock-m... people just so desperately want the USA to be in a recession it seems.

[dead]

Re: Most of the US economy is in a recession

#130

Post by tartoran »

riffraff wrote: post #103
vrosas wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mojtaba will be dead within a month. What would it say about the entire operation if they just backed off and let Khamenei’s son take over?

That it was a stupid operation with a predictably useless outcome. But we also said that about the whole invading Greenland stuff, and it ended like that. And about the war in Afghanistan. And I would presume, about the Vietnam war. Trump will say he won and move on.

> Trump will say he won and move on.

Then Trump will move on and attack China maybe? Anyway, with Trump in office I expect to see more and more chaos coming.

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