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War prediction markets are a national-security threat

theatlantic.com

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Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#121

Post by JumpCrisscross »

amelius wrote: post #98
Zigurd wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope everyone reading this realizes that commodity futures are useful and easily distinguished from prediction markets, which are a ruse to get around restrictions on gambling.

The world did fine before derivatives. In fact some might say it did even better. And gambling only makes the wealth gap worse. And there is a ton of nasty incentives linked to it.

> world did fine before derivatives

The Hittites and Bronze-Age Egyptians had forward-deliverable contracts that, if you squint, they would trade amongst each other. The idea of being able to assign a contract to a third party to which you're a beneficiary is about as old as civilisation. In part because it's obvious. In part because it's impossible to police. But mostly because it's useful.

(I'm ignoring insurance and reinsurance, both of which are derivatives and rely heavily upon them.)

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#122

Post by JumpCrisscross »

fragmede wrote: post #40
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don’t think so. A lot of peoples’ first reaction to something they don’t understand is to try and make it go away.

A lot of people reaction to understanding what derivatives are are also to try and make them go away. Thinking derivatives are legalized gambling, and being against gambling entirely, doesn't require a lack of understanding of derivatives to be against them.

> thinking derivatives are legalized gambling, and being against gambling entirely, doesn't require a lack of understanding of derivatives to be against them

No, but anyone who has an introductory knowledge of derivatives and their history will know of the Onion Futures Act, which banned "the trading of futures contracts on onions" to predictable (albeit long term) effects.

Broadly speaking, the less someone knows about derivatives and the further their work is from the production of any good (versus services), the more likely they are to get upset about it.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion_Futures_Act#cite_note-fo...

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#123

Post by JumpCrisscross »

roenxi wrote: post #86
dastuer wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The site you cite for [3] reads: "Khamenei, the leader of the great nation of Iran, the freedom seekers of the world and the Islamic nations, has joined the highest paradise and reached his long-cherished wish of martyrdom in the holy month of Ramadan," said an announcement aired on Iranian state television. Sounds to me like it was made up after the fact.

Extracting an 80 year old from their house is a bit harder than you might expect. Even if their stubborness is going to get them killed. I personally have difficulty believing Iran didn't know that war was inbound, everyone I talk to was anticipating it within a roughly 3-week window and these are people just working off what they read on internet news. Khamenei might not have known he was going to die that day and i…

> personally have difficulty believing Iran didn't know that war was inbound

Khamenei wasn't the only one killed in that meeting. All of the evidence points to Iran having expected America to attack at night. And in fact, that was the plan until we learned about that idiotic meeting.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#124

Post by nradov »

amelius wrote: post #98
Zigurd wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope everyone reading this realizes that commodity futures are useful and easily distinguished from prediction markets, which are a ruse to get around restrictions on gambling.

The world did fine before derivatives. In fact some might say it did even better. And gambling only makes the wealth gap worse. And there is a ton of nasty incentives linked to it.

Nonsense. Derivatives have been actively traded in the USA at least since 1848 (and even earlier in other countries). Nothing was better about the world in 1847.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#125

Post by voganmother42 »

thephyber wrote: post #66
pstuart wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except this wasn't driven by Oil. It was driven by Israel.

The White House has admitted that Israel had actionable intelligence that several of the Iranian political leadership were having a physical meeting together and they decided to attack to decapitate the government. The US decided to attack Iranian capabilities preemptively to reduce the inevitable response to US military, embassies, and allies in the region.

Striking schools and killing school children has not reduced the inevitable response.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#126

Post by jasomill »

Analemma_ wrote: post #63
int32_64 wrote: post #41

Lindsey Graham candidly admitting to being the agent of a foreign country is a National-Security threat.

The Foreign Agents Registration Act has a de facto Israel exception. If it didn’t, half of Congress would be in violation.

Has the FARA ever been used to prosecute a US official for acting in the interests of any close US ally (Israel, Saudi Arabia, Five Eyes, etc.)?

As I understand it, selective prosecution has always been the rule rather than the exception.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#127

Post by amelius »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #121
amelius wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world did fine before derivatives. In fact some might say it did even better. And gambling only makes the wealth gap worse. And there is a ton of nasty incentives linked to it.

> world did fine before derivatives The Hittites and Bronze-Age Egyptians had forward-deliverable contracts that, if you squint, they would trade amongst each other. The idea of being able to assign a contract to a third party to which you're a beneficiary is about as old as civilisation. In part because it's obvious. In part because it's impossible to police. But mostly because it's useful. (I'm ignoring insurance a…

The scale of things was much different back then. Not comparable.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#128

Post by abustamam »

Paracompact wrote: post #119
abustamam wrote: post #78

For whatever it's worth, Kalshi refused to pay out on the bet because Khomenei died, and they refuse to allow people to profit off of death so they returned everyone's bets. https://xcancel.com/mansourtarek_/status/2029996077554815268 While I think this policy removes one avenue of incentivizing death of real people (many bets involving real people can probably be resolved by some sort of assassination attempt), I ho…

I'm unfamiliar with Kalshi's ethics. Would they have paid out if only non-famous human beings died in the ousting?

Not sure. For the record I don't think of Kalshi as an ethical company. I just found it interesting that it's the only company that seems to be getting press coverage for refusing to pay out because of this.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#129

Post by JumpCrisscross »

amelius wrote: post #127
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> world did fine before derivatives The Hittites and Bronze-Age Egyptians had forward-deliverable contracts that, if you squint, they would trade amongst each other. The idea of being able to assign a contract to a third party to which you're a beneficiary is about as old as civilisation. In part because it's obvious. In part because it's impossible to police. But mostly because it's useful. (I'm ignoring insurance a…

The scale of things was much different back then. Not comparable.

> scale of things was much different back then

"Scale back derivatives" is a reasonable argument. "Ban derivatives" is silly.

> Not comparable

Totally comparable. I'm actually struggling to think of an infrastructure-building civilisation in history that didn't have some form of tradable forwards.

Re: War prediction markets are a national-security threat

#130

Post by dmantis »

jimkleiber wrote: post #8
Uhhrrr wrote: post #3

Placing a bet based on insider national security information should be regarded as leaking. But the markets aren't the problem here.

Well markets give a huge financial incentive for it. Before you had to get paid a bribe for an intelligence agent. Now you can just "legitimately" bet on a market. It's a LOT easier and more spread out, I imagine.

On the other hand, it provides the whole world with the information and not just some spy agency. Isn't that more fair system?

And people dying in question is army, professional murderers for hire themselves, not a big loss.

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