Russia's economy has entered the death zone • Hacker News Board

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#121

Post by ivan_gammel » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 9:28 PM UTC

atmavatar wrote: post #98

phicoh wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia's military force currently relies on men willing to die for money. That could change. But Putin seems reluctant to force the general population to die in Ukraine. Classic economic theory suggests that the amount you need offer to people willing to die goes up over time. For Ukraine the main thing is to get to the point that Russia doesn't attack any more. There is no need for Ukraine to concur any part of Russ…

> Even getting the currently occupied land back is mostly optional. That's only true in the short term. If Russia gets out of the war with Ukraine with territory gains, that only serves as incentive to start up again after Russia can regroup. After all, Putin's stated long-term goal is to take the entire country (among others) and restore the USSR. Of course, taking back the occupied land is also easier said than don…

> After all, Putin's stated long-term goal is to take the entire country (among others) and restore the USSR.

This was never a stated goal.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#122

Post by unsnap_biceps » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 9:31 PM UTC

phicoh wrote: post #62

tchalla wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EU may be “rich enough” to support Ukraine forever, doesn’t mean it will or should do it.

The EU, well NATO has the problem what Russia will do when it is no longer at war with Ukraine. There is also the question what the US would if Russia attacks a NATO country. So European NATO countries basically need to keep supporting Ukraine while they try to becomes militarily independent of the US.

EU just needs to support Ukraine until Russia has dug themselves into a hole that will take generations to recover from. Their might be a point where the war hasn't ended but Russia is no longer seen as a threat by the EU.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#123

Post by krautburglar » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 9:34 PM UTC

tliltocatl wrote: post #21

krautburglar wrote: post #5

[flagged]

Not that you aren't factually right with regards to all modern technology being funded thru MIC, but USSR/Russia had exactly the same kind of MIC and has miserably failed at converting it to something profitable in the past. No reason to expect anything different this time - it's probably even worse because every successful entrepreneur that wouldn't leave the country ends up in prison. That said, there isn't much of…

USSR vs 2026 Russia is apples and oranges.

USSR: kicked their educated jews out (twice -- pogroms & doctors plot), kicked most of their educated gentiles out in 1917, used up their remaining human capital as cannon fodder against hitler. Everything USSR had was gifted from the west to keep the west's military-industrial grift running (see Antony Sutton's works for details). They were a boogeyman used by western elites to extract wealth from their own taxcattle.

Modern Russia is a gas station and strip mine with decent relations to the south and the east. Not a phenomenal position, but a hell of a lot better than what they had. Building up their defense sector so that they don't get internationally looted again (i.e. the 90s) is the right move for them, and an unfortunate reality for us.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#124

Post by samiv » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 9:39 PM UTC

wiseowise wrote: post #115

samiv wrote: post #94

Same story for 4 years long. "Russian economy is at the brink of a collapse." Yet it Somehow just keeps ok going year after year. The truth is that the sanctions are only hurting the Eurozone more than Russia. Small minority (EU or the political west) cannot force meaningful sanctions on much larger group (BRICS). Unfortunately this is not the narrative anyone can say out loud lest they be labeled as "Putin's trolls"…

How do you think sanctions work? Economy is not powered by electricity, it took 4 years to crack down on their shadow fleet, God knows how many more escape hatches they have. China and India, and now US support them.

"China and India" this is the point exactly. BRICS is the largest economic union in the world. They don't need EU for anything therefore the sanctions are only self harming the Eurozone. This is the reality.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#125

Post by k_bx » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 9:41 PM UTC

sourcegrift wrote: post #108

k_bx wrote: post #3

As a Ukrainian at war since day 1 – I don't buy it. They will sell their gas at discount to China until the very end. Military force is the only way to get them to the death zone.

Thank you for your esteemed presence. I've got an unsatisfied hankering for kneeling since george Floyd died, but now that you're here, take that kneel.

Thank you sir, appreciate the support!

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#126

Post by general1465 » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 9:45 PM UTC

pavel_lishin wrote: post #43

> If your competitors are also weakening—and if you believe you can tolerate the pain longer than they can—the calculus flips. Economic pressure that should drive compromise instead reinforces the logic of persistence. I think everyone underestimates just how much misery Russia, and Russian citizens, can endure.

That was true during WW1 and then Russian empire just cracked in 1917, gave up war and turned on itself.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#127

Post by ivan_gammel » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 9:49 PM UTC

general1465 wrote: post #126

pavel_lishin wrote: post #43

> If your competitors are also weakening—and if you believe you can tolerate the pain longer than they can—the calculus flips. Economic pressure that should drive compromise instead reinforces the logic of persistence. I think everyone underestimates just how much misery Russia, and Russian citizens, can endure.

That was true during WW1 and then Russian empire just cracked in 1917, gave up war and turned on itself.

Which confirms the original thesis, given how much people endured after 1917.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#128

Post by ivan_gammel » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 9:57 PM UTC

dyauspitr wrote: post #19

How does Russia have $73 billion dollars worth of debt. Who is buying Russian treasuries? Also how did the GDP grow by 1% in 2025, is that a function of the internal Defence spending activity?

>Who is buying Russian treasuries?

Obviously domestic investors. EU sanctions locked them on domestic market and with current macro indicators buying Russian debt is a no-brainer.

> Also how did the GDP grow by 1% in 2025, is that a function of the internal Defence spending activity?

Russia poured a lot of money in the economy, so it wasn’t just military spending. Generous payouts to families of killed and wounded soldiers did magic to local property markets. It also accelerated inflation, which pushed people to spend more. At the same time imports from the West dropped, only partially compensated by Chinese. Central bank had to raise interest rates multiple times targeting inflation and preventing economy from overheating. Now it started dropping the rates, taking into account that borrowing already suppressed and military spending is lower this year.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#129

Post by ponector » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 10:08 PM UTC

neocron wrote: post #83

mdavid626 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ukraine might have less time than Russia does. Russia only has to survive 1 day more.

But then what, become a part of China? I don't think Russia could defend themselves from an attack of a lesser nation right now, and I truly wish one of them would take opportunity

China doesn't need to attach Russia. Just close the borders for all trade and Russia will implode within a year.

Re: Russia's economy has entered the death zone

#130

Post by ponector » Tue, Feb 17, 2026, 10:14 PM UTC

ajross wrote: post #37

kergonath wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s very difficult to utterly destroy a country’s military force, particularly a country as huge as Russia, which has also a sizeable population. Ukraine cannot do it on its own and I see no appetite from anybody else to do it, so I think it is unlikely to happen. Of course, it is also very difficult to utterly destroy a country’s economic power. Unfortunately, in Russia’s case, they have the raw materials and a pop…

That's misunderstanding the model of actors. "Russia" isn't "Putin". "Countries" act in the best interests of their power structure, not their leaders. Basically: the way this ends is when the collective will of the power centers (generally the armed forces, though not always) decide that they'll be wealthier and happier with Putin gone than by following more orders. And obviously that's an unstable/unpredictable equ…

>> "Russia" isn't "Putin"

However putin is a good representative of russian people who easily travel to other country 5000+ km to die for cash and imperial narratives. If putin dies tomorrow war wouldn't stop.