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Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

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Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#121

Post by marcyb5st »

ectospheno wrote: post #40

An equally valid headline is "Investors purchased $8B of US Treasury Bonds". Never really got the point of people announcing US Treasury sales like its a big thing. Someone else not thinking with their emotions can, and will buy them. Its like announcing publicly you are selling your Honda. Its your Honda bro, sell it.

It is the second substantial sell from EU. Additionally, those things gain momentum fast since the later you sell the less money you make from the bonds you are selling.

So everyone doesn't want to be last and the sell-off takes off fast and violently, forcing unmanageable interest rates.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#122

Post by gambiting »

loeg wrote: post #68
epgui wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing is risk-free. But Canada is certainly more politically stable than the US.

What makes you say "certainly," especially in the hypothetical scenario where the US is unstable? Canada has a relatively much shorter history as an independent nation. Canada heavily benefits from its southern neighbor, and has a host of domestic economic issues (low wages, high housing prices; whatever the farmers are on about) that could cause instability as well. I think Canada is reasonably stable, I just quibbl…

>>especially in the hypothetical scenario where the US is unstable?

How does it feel to bury your head in the sand so hard that you can't see what's happening around you?

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#123

Post by overfeed »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #116
toomuchtodo wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Canada will not invade allies and will adhere to the rule of law. Their forward looking economics are more favorable as they strengthen ties with China and Europe. By decoupling from the US, their economic risk declines, and their sovereign debt risk is downstream of that.

Under current conditions, though, they may be invaded and/or annexed. That's a risk.

That's one way to invite asymmetric warfare[1] on the mainland - the border with Canada is something that mostly exists on maps.

1. As recently wargamed by the Canadian military.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#124

Post by TacticalCoder »

downrightmike wrote: post #96
loeg wrote: post #34

US 10- and 30-year bonds are trading at their highest yields (lowest prices) since, uh, August/September 2025. Or in historical context, rates that were more common before 2007 and the ZIRP period.

Which explains why the DOJ is going after the FED for not lowerign interest rates. They assume ZIRP will solve their problems, but that just kicks the can down the road, and it won't go far this time. Even Japan, which was our model for yield curve control has abandoned that theory. Bunch of dumb people running the room and no experts.

> Even Japan, which was our model for yield curve control has abandoned that theory.

Common please: Japan's rates have hovered around zero for about 30 years. Three decades. Japan has never been the model for yield curve and the theory they "abandoned" has been recently abandoned, after three decades.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#125

Post by overfeed »

elenchev wrote: post #70
arnonejoe wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fed would almost certainly intervene aggressively resuming large scale QE to buy up treasuries and stabilize yields.

we've played this game before

In the past, the game was as played with the additional benefit of foreign bondholders and currency reserves slowing the overall velocity of money. The rest of the world has heen quietly blunting the inflationary effects of printing USD.

Most Americans - this administration included - don't know how good they have had it, and are throwing it all away due to avarice.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#126

Post by well_ackshually »

loeg wrote: post #58
Braxton1980 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Almost every 1st world country has a more predictable and honest leader right now

You've answered a different question than the one I asked. I think the US will continue to pay its debts, under this president and the one who replaces him in three years.

The point is that it doesn't matter, the US is toxic for the next foreseeable twenty years, and for Europe as a whole, a threat and an enemy. We'd be stupid to keep funding your economy, no matter how much money it makes back. Enemies are to be taken down.

>under this president and the one who replaces him in three years.

The levels of optimism in this sentence are off the charts. The US's political systems are so weak, fragile and compromised that you don't even know if you're going to hold proper midterms or if you're going to get a civil war, the current president is threatening the FED, but sure, debts are going to be paid when it's ran by the dude that managed to bankrupt casinos.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#127

Post by irishcoffee »

wrs wrote: post #36
irishcoffee wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the US paid $8B towards it debt every _day_ it would take over thirteen _years_ (completely ignoring interest accumulation, which isn't realistic) to pay off $38T in debt. I don't see how this is huge in context, it is indeed symbolic. Please don't get me wrong here, I am neither advocating the selling or not selling of US bonds. This specific sale just isn't statically significant in a vacuum. If this precipitate…

Regarding your last sentence, this isn't happening in a vacuum, and rejecting the risk-free assumption behind US debt seems like a symbol with a lot of information content.

Same point. It would need to increase by: an order of magnitude AND happen every day before it becomes a problem. $8B (actually $260m) isn’t moving markets. $80B/day for a month, that would move the needle.

I understand why people want this to be a bigger deal. It just isn’t. Not yet.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#128

Post by well_ackshually »

loeg wrote: post #68
epgui wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nothing is risk-free. But Canada is certainly more politically stable than the US.

What makes you say "certainly," especially in the hypothetical scenario where the US is unstable? Canada has a relatively much shorter history as an independent nation. Canada heavily benefits from its southern neighbor, and has a host of domestic economic issues (low wages, high housing prices; whatever the farmers are on about) that could cause instability as well. I think Canada is reasonably stable, I just quibbl…

Your "long history as a nation" mostly means you have a flawed constitution, no counter powers, a broken political system and absolutely _zero_ attempts to fix it.

There's a reason proper countries have had 5+ constitutions and keep changing them.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#129

Post by overfeed »

shermantanktop wrote: post #17
josefritzishere wrote: post #8

It's self evident that this is just the beginning. Expect one group of pundits to pretend this is irrelevant as long as possible.

A pundit saying "oh no, the world is ending" gets a lot more coverage than "nothing to see here, move along." Then again, they say whatever they need to in order for their paychecks to keep coming.

Talking heads serve the interests of their wealthy benefactors who have gone all out to own/control all of news media. Benefactors whose wealth is almost entirely tied up in securities.

Re: Swedish Alecta has sold off an estimated $8B of US Treasury Bonds

#130

Post by robinsoncrusue »

jacquesm wrote: post #109
zppln wrote: post #9

What are some realistic alternatives to US markets here? Selling is one thing, the question is what to buy instead? I mean, everyone starting to buy european instead would be great for stock prices, but it wouldn't make the underlying assets more valuable, right?

Eurobonds. It may actually happen if this continues. But given the speed of the usual EU decision process I would not be surprised if it takes them longer than the current US administration to finally agree on the various terms. And that's good for Europe in multiple ways. https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/eu-budget/e... In the meantime: German, Dutch, UK (technically not EU), Swiss, Nordic paper is al…

Eurozone has a looming debt crisis. ECB is actively capping the yields for countries bonds from Spain and Portugal which are showing stress signals. This will not end well for ECB this time around if they end up something like 2012.

https://substack.com/home/post/p-185202466

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