American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis • Hacker News Board

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#121

Post by BanAntiVaxxers » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC

PaulRobinson wrote: post #106

bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

A lot of Americans believed the guy they wanted to believe in, because they didn't want to believe the people they didn't want to believe in. You're assuming that modern politics across most of the World has something to do with rational, logical thought. Russia, China, Europe, the US, the Middle East - they are all in a quagmire of irrational fractures between the public and the political classes who want power/cont…

[flagged]

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#122

Post by benj111 » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC

bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

As a Brit who studied history, the parallels to 1930s Germany are too strong for comfort. So I would suggest reading up on that for some answers.

Although as the comparison hopefully makes clear, you worrying about tariffs is missing the point, it's more a question of basic democracy at this point. I'm also somewhat concerned about your (edit: as in the USs) new found lust for Lebensraum, because again, that went well last time.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#123

Post by threethirtytwo » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC

0xy wrote: post #113

bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

Those same economists warning about tariffs also warned it would lead to runaway skyrocketing inflation and quote "the mother of all recessions" [1] [2] [3], which objectively did not happen. The same economists were nowhere to be seen when prices doubled 2020-24 and the official inflation numbers were 13%. Once again proving that economists are engaged in mere astrology. You also frame the argument that the last adm…

Weather prediction is the more apt analogy here. Astrology is total bullshit, while economics and weather is an attempt to predict the chaos.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#124

Post by wtmt » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC

zkmon wrote: post #48

In India, every tax imposed on a business goes straight to consumer. The consumer receipt even mentions some of those taxes item-wise. I thought American consumer also might see this on their shopping receipts? Who thinks businesses would swallow taxes?

> In India, every tax imposed on a business goes straight to consumer. The consumer receipt even mentions all those taxes item-wise.

As someone in India, this statement is incorrect. There are no consumer receipts in India that show the import duties (which is what tariffs are) as an amount or as a percentage. There are plenty of goods sold in India that are imported, duty paid, and the costs are passed on to the consumers (with no explicit mention of that in the invoice or receipt).

You may be confusing these US tariffs with local taxes in India like GST. In the US, sales tax is shown in the consumer receipts (if or as applicable in the state, county, city, etc.).

In India and in the US, import duties are not shown in consumer receipts, except in the case where an individual is importing something and is liable to pay the duties and levies directly. Indians would probably revolt if they actually knew how much customs duty they’re paying for all the goods they buy individually.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#125

Post by rozap » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 4:30 PM UTC

wolvoleo wrote: post #119

bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

I'm not American but I don't think tariffs were mentioned in Trump's campaign? It was more the 'stick it to the liberals' and 'drain the swamp' stuff. He only started that tariff stuff when he took office. Edit: Clearly I was not following things well enough, sorry for the wrong information.

What? He rambled about it all the time. It wasn't coherent but he did always say this is what he was going to do.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#126

Post by jacquesm » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 4:31 PM UTC

0xy wrote: post #113

bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

Those same economists warning about tariffs also warned it would lead to runaway skyrocketing inflation and quote "the mother of all recessions" [1] [2] [3], which objectively did not happen. The same economists were nowhere to be seen when prices doubled 2020-24 and the official inflation numbers were 13%. Once again proving that economists are engaged in mere astrology. You also frame the argument that the last adm…

We usually critique the movie after the end titles roll.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#127

Post by yoyohello13 » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 4:31 PM UTC

al_borland wrote: post #74

Trump has floated the idea of eliminating federal income tax completely, which would balance things out. I think I’d rather pay taxes in the form of tariffs than through income tax. The tariffs can help protect jobs from being outsourced, which has been a big issue over the last several decades. With everyone talking about out AI coming for our jobs, having more options for employment seems like a good thing. I suppo…

As you pointed out in your comment. Trading income tax for tariffs is just shifting tax burden to the poor. Which the rich have been trying to do since the dawn of currency so at least the policy is consistent.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#128

Post by wolvoleo » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 4:31 PM UTC

rozap wrote: post #125

wolvoleo wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not American but I don't think tariffs were mentioned in Trump's campaign? It was more the 'stick it to the liberals' and 'drain the swamp' stuff. He only started that tariff stuff when he took office. Edit: Clearly I was not following things well enough, sorry for the wrong information.

What? He rambled about it all the time. It wasn't coherent but he did always say this is what he was going to do.

Oh ok I didn't follow it that closely of course but that part didn't make it into the news here. He did complain about the trade imbalance but not specifically tariffs.

Ps: there isn't really a trade imbalance if you take services into accounts but Trump calculated them only on goods as if that makes sense

I don't think that would have resonated with his followers at all though.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#129

Post by alex_suzuki » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 4:31 PM UTC

drstewart wrote: post #88

Has this institute done an analysis of the VAT own goal by Germany? What percentage is paid by EU Germans?

Value added tax, to the best of my knowledge, is always paid by the end customer/consumer. Is somebody claiming otherwise?

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#130

Post by wrs » Mon, Jan 19, 2026, 4:31 PM UTC

0xy wrote: post #113

bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

Those same economists warning about tariffs also warned it would lead to runaway skyrocketing inflation and quote "the mother of all recessions" [1] [2] [3], which objectively did not happen. The same economists were nowhere to be seen when prices doubled 2020-24 and the official inflation numbers were 13%. Once again proving that economists are engaged in mere astrology. You also frame the argument that the last adm…

There’s a difference between predicting the degree of inflation (an output metric of the entire complex system) and predicting that the country imposing a tariff pays most of the tariff (almost the definition of the word tariff). And if you can’t see that obvious distinction, who’s the one engaged in a fundamentally political argument?