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Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

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Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#121

Post by pazimzadeh »

observationist wrote: post #82
pazimzadeh wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s no opposition though? As much as some people outside Iran want, I don’t think the Shah’s son has enough of a base of support inside Iran. This doesn’t seem very different than the 2008 and Mahsa protests. Most likely there will be an internal reorganization towards economic reform and moderate social policies.

There's a huge difference - in previous protests, they were begging the regime to hear their voices, to do the right thing - to reform, or change policy. This time, there's no calls for conciliation or change, it's outright "death to the tyrants" and an astonishing number of people hitting the streets. They're burning down mosques, tearing down statues, burning out police stations, lynching regime officials, going to…

Well, where are you getting this information if the internet's been cut off in Iran? All sides are spreading their propaganda so it's hard to say what's actually happening.

There are reports of hospitals, banks and other institutional buildings being burned, even fire engines - but does it make sense for iranians to burn those?

But the mossad stated they have agents acting in the field. https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-881733

FYI, statues of khomeini, etc were burnt during Mahsa Amini protests too. https://x.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1573372214833041409?s=20

The question remains - after everything is burned to the ground, what opposition or leader is going to take control, if not the IRGC or military?

> it's been going on for 16 days at this point, and for some reason, is noticeably absent from world media. That feels significant, somehow

somehow, yes, but in a good or bad way? what is the significance? maybe the US/israel was gearing up to bomb Iran and the revolts would endear Iranian people to the Western public in a way that powers that be don't want? just thinking out loud here

Edit: chanced on an article which kind of supports this idea

  A national security expert said President Donald Trump may already be prepared to act against Iran, suggesting a widely reported upcoming briefing on U.S. options could be intentional "deception" as deadly protests intensify in the country.
https://www.foxnews.com/media/trumps-iran-briefing-may-decep...

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#122

Post by Qem »

tptacek wrote: post #102
ebbi wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that the anti-regime movement is not all the product of foreign intervention, but I'd say some (and even wager majority) are. Not acknowledging foreign intervention in this aspect would not give a fuller picture of the dynamics.

I think that's an extraordinary claim.

Mossad itself confirmed boots on the ground: “We are with you. Not only from a distance and verbally. We are with you in the field.”. See https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-881733

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#123

Post by xenospn »

tariky wrote: post #92

I have friends who wore going to Iran for business meeting. Friends are from former Yugoslavia state who still have connections to Iran. They export sparkplugs to Iran. Interesting thing is that they say they never seen such a beautiful country with even more beautiful people. Also they said they filled up two full car tanks for ~5€. Their conclusion is that people there live much better life(more fulfilling) then pe…

Hard to be fulfilled when you have no water, power, or enough money to buy bread.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#124

Post by tptacek »

Qem wrote: post #122
tptacek wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's an extraordinary claim.

Mossad itself confirmed boots on the ground: “We are with you. Not only from a distance and verbally. We are with you in the field.”. See https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-881733

The claim isn't "Mossad has boots on the ground". Everybody agrees the Mossad is in Iran, and the IRGC is in Israel.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#125

Post by xenospn »

leptons wrote: post #96
password54321 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Israel does seem pretty excited about this and I doubt it is because they suddenly care about people they have killed themselves and a nation they have threatened to destroy.

>and a nation they have threatened to destroy Iran hasn't threatened to destroy, they have made it their stated mission to "annihilate" Israel. I doubt Israel would have any ill-will towards Iran if Iran didn't first say that about Israel.

Israel and Iran were BFFs right until the revolution and Israel has hundreds of thousands of Persian jews. I'm sure relations will be very quickly amended if the current regime falls.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#126

Post by breppp »

Cyph0n wrote: post #119
breppp wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Far less interested than in Gaza, for example 2. Hard to tell yet, there are videos that at least claim to show hundreds of dead which indicate both mass shooting and mass demonstrations 3. The issue is that like in USSR, any political prisoner given enough torture admits spying. So you can't really tell which are and which aren't. I wouldn't put much trust on Iranian media on that matter, especially when they onl…

1. Give me a call when the repression of local protests escalates into a 2 year long Western backed campaign of ethnic cleansing and genocide against a blockaded population. 2. Agree that it’s hard to tell for certain. 3. The truth is somewhere in between. My reading is that Mossad is definitely operating on the ground in some capacity.

1. Well, we are digressing to the Gaza conflict, but calling it a genocide is probably just a form of turning up the volume on social media to generate some engagement. It is hardly similar to real mass murders whose goal was destruction of entire nations, that it requires people using the word to ignore the fact of reality that there was no real attempt at destroying the Palestinian people in Gaza. The argument then consequently turns to some legal reading that reduces the crime of genocide to "death of any amount of civilians", to the point it only serves to reduce the crime of real acts of genocide

3. Yes, it showed impressive operational capacity on the ground during the war. However, trying to attribute the protests solely to Israeli intelligence both gives too much credit to Israel, and uses the same mechanism in point 1 that erases the more uncomfortable parts of reality to keep a predefined political idea coherent.

To highly paraphrase, in order to create a myth you shouldn't be concerned with what you remember but with what you forget

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#127

Post by Cyph0n »

breppp wrote: post #126
Cyph0n wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1. Give me a call when the repression of local protests escalates into a 2 year long Western backed campaign of ethnic cleansing and genocide against a blockaded population. 2. Agree that it’s hard to tell for certain. 3. The truth is somewhere in between. My reading is that Mossad is definitely operating on the ground in some capacity.

1. Well, we are digressing to the Gaza conflict, but calling it a genocide is probably just a form of turning up the volume on social media to generate some engagement. It is hardly similar to real mass murders whose goal was destruction of entire nations, that it requires people using the word to ignore the fact of reality that there was no real attempt at destroying the Palestinian people in Gaza. The argument then…

We clearly disagree on Gaza, but you brought it up.

But my point with the comparison is that the protests in their current form are not worthy of this level of coordinated international coverage. The fact that this ramp up in coverage coincides with rhetoric from multiple governments signaling that regime change is a short term goal raises suspicion.

Also, nowhere did I say that the Mossad is somehow pulling the strings behind the scenes. They are definitely one factor behind these protests, along with the pro-Shah contingent inside and outside the country, as well as serious anti-regime elements inside the country. The latter is a minority thanks to the 12 day war, which comes back to my initial point.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#128

Post by FergusArgyll »

tptacek wrote: post #116
red-iron-pine wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the US or Israel want to fix it, I think they want a pretext for bombing Iranian military sites to aggressively defang

I don't think either the US or Israel is all that worried about "defanging" Iran's actual military. Their proxies, like Hezbollah, Assadist Syria, Ansar Allah, and Kataib Hezbollah? Sure. But they've mostly already accomplished that. I think Iran's actual military is kind of a joke in military circles?

Israel definitely wants to get rid of Irans ballistic missiles.

That said; if you believe (as do some commenters here) that Israel could ignite nationwide protests with 100,000s of people whenever they want, then they definitely don't have to worry about Irans army

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#129

Post by tptacek »

FergusArgyll wrote: post #128
tptacek wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think either the US or Israel is all that worried about "defanging" Iran's actual military. Their proxies, like Hezbollah, Assadist Syria, Ansar Allah, and Kataib Hezbollah? Sure. But they've mostly already accomplished that. I think Iran's actual military is kind of a joke in military circles?

Israel definitely wants to get rid of Irans ballistic missiles. That said; if you believe (as do some commenters here) that Israel could ignite nationwide protests with 100,000s of people whenever they want, then they definitely don't have to worry about Irans army

I don't believe Israel can ignite nationwide protest and sort of assume, as a military/strategic matter, that Israel's primary response to Iran's MRBM capabilities is deterrent. Israel control's Iran's skies. I think the direct military part of this conflict is basically over.

I'm just a message board commenter, this is just a take.

Re: Iran has now been offline for 96 hours

#130

Post by breppp »

flyinglizard wrote: post #88
Cyph0n wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the sense that an offensive war - especially one that intentionally targets civilians and their families - rallies people around the flag and provides a boost of support to whoever is in power. The regime was organically declining in popularity. Israel’s war simply rejuvenated the regime’s supporter base without any meaningful gains on the ground. There was minimal impact to the enrichment campaign. And the fact t…

Israel has had nukes since the 1960’s, and has been wiping the floor with its adversaries since before even that. What changed now that would push Saudi Arabia and Turkey to get nukes? Nothing really. On the contrary: it is Turkey that’s projecting power in Syria, Libya and Somalia, and likewise Saudi Arabia projecting power in Yemen. Israel’s war on Iran was an important piece in the way to the collapse of the regim…

I agree that Israel has largely won the war to an extent that greatly reduced the fear the regime created in its own citizens which hastened this current protests

I am less convinced this is the end though, but maybe another step in a slow death of the regime. Regarding your last point, this is already happening, now that Iran is weak the KSA has less of an interest to ally with Israel and it shifts to allying its previous rivals of Qatar and Turkey along with Pakistan

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