A take I saw recently is: if people are still asking "are we in a bubble" then we are not yet in a bubble.
I think it'd be truer to say that you can't be sure it's a bubble until after it pops.
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Is it a bubble?
121–130 of 605 posts
Re: Is it a bubble?
#122> In many advanced software teams, developers no longer write the code; they type in what they want, and AI systems generate the code for them. What a wild and speculative claim. Is there any source for this information?
source: me I wrote 4000 lines of Rust code with Codex - a high throughput websocket data collector. Spoiler: I do not know Rust at all. I discussed possible architectures with GPT/Gemini/Grok (sync/async, data flow, storage options, ...), refined a design and then it was all implemented with agents. Works perfectly, no bugs.
Since when is a 4000 line of code project "advanced software"? That's about the scope of a sophomore year university CompSci project, something where there's already a broad consensus AI does quite well.
Re: Is it a bubble?
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. Same here, and I think it's because I feel like a craftsman. I thoroughly enjoy the process of thinking deeply about what I will build, breaking down the work into related chunks, and of course writing the code itself. It's like magic when it all comes together. Sometimes I can't even beli…
I also love to code, though it's not what people pay to do anymore. You should never hope for a technology to not deliver on its promise. Sooner or later it usually does. The question is, does it happen in two years or a hundred years? My motto: don't predict, prepare.
> You should never hope for a technology to not deliver on its promise. Sooner or later it usually does.
Really? Are you sure there isn't a lot of confirmation bias in this? Do you really have a good handle on 100-year-old tech hypes that didn't deliver? All I can think of is "flying everything".
Re: Is it a bubble?
#124Re: Is it a bubble?
#125Earlier quoted context omitted.
So you're saying machine code is public domain if it's compiled from C? If not, why would AI generated code be any different?
That would be considered a derivative work of the C code, therefore copyright protected, I believe. Can you replay all of your prompts exactly the way you wrote them and get the same behaviour out of the LLM generated code? In that case, the situation might be similar. If you're prodding an LLM to give you a variety of resu But significantly editing LLM generated code _should_ make it your copyright again, I believe.…
"Can you replay all of your prompts exactly the way you wrote them and get the same behaviour out of the LLM generated code? In that case, the situation might be similar. If that's not the case, probably not." Yes and no. It's possible in theory, but in practice it requires control over the seed, which you typically don't have in the AI coding tools. At least if you're using local models, you can control the seed and have it be deterministic.
That said, you don't necessarily always have 100% deterministic build when compiling code either.
Re: Is it a bubble?
#126Earlier quoted context omitted.
"It's not. And if your team is doing this you're not "advanced." Lots of people are outing themselves these days about the complexity of their jobs, or lack thereof. Which is great! But it's not a +1 for AI, it's a -1 for them. " Is you, right?
Yes. You can see my name on the post.
OK, just making sure. Have a blessed day :)
Re: Is it a bubble?
#127A take I saw recently is: if people are still asking "are we in a bubble" then we are not yet in a bubble.
I think it'd be truer to say that you can't be sure it's a bubble until after it pops.
Except not all (market) bubbles pop. Sometimes they slowly deflate, and sometimes they stabilize ("soft landing").
Re: Is it a bubble?
#128The post script was pretty sobering. It's kind of the first time in my life that I've been actively hoping for a technology to out right not deliver on its promise. This is a pretty depressing place to be, because most emerging technologies provide us with exciting new possibilities whereas this technology seems only exciting for management stressed about payroll. It's true that the technology currently works as an e…
I think it just reflects on the sort of businesses that these companies are vs others. Of course we worry about this in the context of companies that dehumanize us, reduce us to line item costs and seek to eliminate us.
Now imagine a different sort of company. A little shop where the owner's first priority is actually to create good jobs for their employees that afford a high quality life. A shop like that needn't worry about AI.
It is too bad that we put so much stock as a society in businesses operating in this dehumanizing capacity instead of ones that are much more like a family unit trying to provide for each other.
Re: Is it a bubble?
#129A take I saw recently is: if people are still asking "are we in a bubble" then we are not yet in a bubble.
Bubbles occur when undue attention is directed towards something. When people are asking "are we in a bubble", there is no question that we are in a bubble. Nobody pays attention to things aligned to the fundamentals.
That doesn't mean there will be a crash, though. Not all bubbles pop.
Re: Is it a bubble?
#130Why is so much invested in AI but not in fusion power?
Imagine getting the opportunity to sell microsoft office to the entire world again how much money is on the table. It doesn't even matter if it works. If you can get the mindless corporate buyers to purchase it along with all the other useless redundant junk they also purchase you are making money hand over fist.
Fusion power on the other hand has to work as it doesn't make money until it does. You can't sell futures to people on a fusion technology today that you haven't yet built.