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NVIDIA frenemy relation with OpenAI and Oracle

philippeoger.com

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Re: NVIDIA frenemy relation with OpenAI and Oracle

#121

Post by tarsinge »

johnfn wrote: post #83
throw234678 wrote: post #20

This post is written with its intellectual fly open. I'm not sure whether it was partly AI-generated, or whether the author has spent so much time ingesting AI-generated content that the tells have rubbed off, but this article has: - Strange paragraph-lists with bolded first words. e.g. "The Cash Flow Mystery" - The 'It's not just X; it's Y' meme: "Buying Groq wouldn't just [...], it could give them a chip that is ac…

It does amuse me when you have great, clean writing in some parts of a post, but then you have a sentence like > As we head into 2026, when looking at Nvidia, openai and Oracle dynamics, it looks like they are squeezing each other balls. Yeah I don't think there's a snowball's chance in heck that an LLM wrote that one, lol. My best guess is that the author combed over some of their prose with an LLM, but not all.

On the contrary, recently I encountered many cases where ChatGPT randomly switched to a very familiar style for a few sentences. It has a strong Reddit vibe when it does it, which I guess is not surprising.

Re: NVIDIA frenemy relation with OpenAI and Oracle

#122

Post by hn_acc1 »

phailhaus wrote: post #91
Havoc wrote: post #81

Not a big fan of the circular observation. It's not the gotcha people seem to think. If the baker sells bread to the butcher, and the butcher sells meat to the baker then they can still both go to bed with a belly full of sandwich (aka actual utility & substance). Adding a third party to make it look more circle-y doesn't change that logic. Round trip financing is mostly an issue if it is artificial (e.g. a circle of…

That's the wrong analogy, because the butcher is giving money to the baker for the bread. If we we fix the analogy, then the baker gives money to the butcher so that he buys their bread with that money . The butcher cannot afford the bread without it!

And the baker then tells people to buy his bread, because it's so good, the butcher buys it every day!

Re: NVIDIA frenemy relation with OpenAI and Oracle

#124

Post by jsnell »

maczwei wrote: post #120
throw234678 wrote: post #20

This post is written with its intellectual fly open. I'm not sure whether it was partly AI-generated, or whether the author has spent so much time ingesting AI-generated content that the tells have rubbed off, but this article has: - Strange paragraph-lists with bolded first words. e.g. "The Cash Flow Mystery" - The 'It's not just X; it's Y' meme: "Buying Groq wouldn't just [...], it could give them a chip that is ac…

In other post: https://philippeoger.com/pages/why-googles-tpu-could-beat-nv... in the paragraph: "What This Means for the Future NVIDIA is not standing still; its Q3 Fiscal 2026 earnings were a record \$57.0 billion in revenue, with Data Center revenue hitting \$51.2 billion. But the growing adoption of TPUs introduces a long-term risk to NVIDIA's core business model." they write about 2026 as if it already was. Coul…

Companies' fiscal years do not necessarily align with the calendar year. Nvidia has indeeded just reported its FY2026 Q3 results.

You might want to get your facts right first when flinging accusations. Like, this fact is trivial to check! Why didn't you?

(Not an endorsement of either of the articles.)

Re: NVIDIA frenemy relation with OpenAI and Oracle

#125

Post by MarkusQ »

maczwei wrote: post #120
throw234678 wrote: post #20

This post is written with its intellectual fly open. I'm not sure whether it was partly AI-generated, or whether the author has spent so much time ingesting AI-generated content that the tells have rubbed off, but this article has: - Strange paragraph-lists with bolded first words. e.g. "The Cash Flow Mystery" - The 'It's not just X; it's Y' meme: "Buying Groq wouldn't just [...], it could give them a chip that is ac…

In other post: https://philippeoger.com/pages/why-googles-tpu-could-beat-nv... in the paragraph: "What This Means for the Future NVIDIA is not standing still; its Q3 Fiscal 2026 earnings were a record \$57.0 billion in revenue, with Data Center revenue hitting \$51.2 billion. But the growing adoption of TPUs introduces a long-term risk to NVIDIA's core business model." they write about 2026 as if it already was. Coul…

Nvidia's (fiscal) Q3 2026 financial statements have been released, and are what this is all about. Fiscal years may be correlated with calendar years, but sometimes (as in this case) the correlation is rather elastic.

Re: NVIDIA frenemy relation with OpenAI and Oracle

#126

Post by mvkel »

mewpmewp2 wrote: post #31
mvkel wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is that stocks are often valued and traded on revenue growth, not profit[0] So circular funding generates stock price bumps when, as you said, there's no inherent value underneath. Creates a recipe for a crash. [0] consider pagerduty, incredibly profitable with little revenue growth. Trading at 1.5X revenue, where high revenue growth, unprofitable companies are trading at 10X revenue.

Both are taken into account. Potential profitability is taken into account with growth companies. Circular funding has no effect on that. With unprofitable companies case is made on how risky the company is and what the potential profit will be in the future.

I would disagree, at least in the short term. Exhibit A: AMD's stock rose 36% at the announcement of their OpenAI circular deal. If 1+1 = 3 and there is potential profit to be gleaned from such a deal, then it isn't circular, and is just plain good business. But the fact that AMD's stock collapsed back to where it was shortly after suggests otherwise

Re: NVIDIA frenemy relation with OpenAI and Oracle

#127

Post by fwip »

pinkmuffinere wrote: post #17
fwip wrote: post #13

- **The Cash Flow Mystery**: ... - **The Inventory Balloon**: ... - **The "Paper" Chase**: ... More AI slop.

I agree it's poorly written, but I'm _much_ more interested in whether it is correct, or incorrect. Do you believe it is incorrect?

I don't have an opinion on whether it's correct or not. I see AI writing, I stop reading. When compared to human-authored prose, AI writing is much more likely to be convincing-but-wrong. I don't need to be ingesting stuff engineered to be believable, with correctness only as a secondary concern.

If it's correct, it's usually because a better source has already written it correctly, or because it's trivial to somebody who knows what they're talking about.

AI writing is a sign that the author either doesn't know the material, doesn't want to write it, or both. Because distinguishing "too lazy to write it" and "too stupid to fact-check it properly" is very difficult on my end as a reader, it's better to be safe than sorry. There's no sense in exposing my malleable wetware to slop of unknown provenance.

There has been no shortage of human authors writing about this topic. I don't know who "Philip Pieogger" is, so I have no reason to prefer him as a co-author.

Re: NVIDIA frenemy relation with OpenAI and Oracle

#129

Post by Detrytus »

nh23423fefe wrote: post #47
biggoodwolf wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

if you invest 20 and get 20 then you got 0% profit

Why would you say that? If take cash and buy an asset I haven't lost money.

But you haven't made any money either. That's what "profit" means.

Also, "the asset" here means stocks of a company that is losing billions dollars per year. OpenAI has no clear path to become profitable, especially given the fact that Google has just leaprfroged them with their Gemini 3 model.

Re: NVIDIA frenemy relation with OpenAI and Oracle

#130

Post by johnnyanmac »

throw234678 wrote: post #84
glitchc wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why use a throwaway account if posting an honest critique?

1. I haven't commented on HN in a while and didn't want to dig up my password. Throwaway accounts are a tradition. 2. I don't want people to see my disparagement of the quality of prose in this article as indication of personal agreement or disagreement with any of the points in the article. I have no horse in this race. I just want to read high-quality material. I love HN, but I'm not sure how much longer HN will be…

>I love HN, but I'm not sure how much longer HN will be a place I can frequent in this respect. Have the hills not eroded? What of childlike curiosity?

Culture shifts, even If you want to pretend you're beyond trends. I know HN wants to say "we're not Reddit" but cultural osmosis from Reddit and the internet at large will change how you interact even here.

That said:

>I wish writers maintained the contract of spending at least as much energy writing out ideas as they expect their audience to expend while reading them.

Maybe they did. Thing is that it's rare to be a skilled orator and a highly technical person (AKA the audience here). I could spend 20 hours writing this piece (after researching) and it'd be worse than someone who spent 2 hours writing it up but basically write full time. Don't let aptitude be confused with effort.

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