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DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

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Re: DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can’t think of a single company I’ve worked with as a consultant that I could convince to use DeepSeek because of its ties with China even if I explained that it was hosted on AWS and none of the information would go to China. Even when the technical people understood that, it would be too much of a political quagmire within their company when it became known to the higher ups. It just isn’t worth the political cap…

This is the real cause. At the enterprise level, trust outweighs cost. My company hires agencies and consultants who provide the same advice as our internal team; this is not to imply that our internal team is incorrect; rather, there is credibility that if something goes wrong, the decision consequences can be shifted, and there is a reason why companies continue to hire the same four consulting firms. It's trust, w…

Children do the same thing intuitively: parents continually complain that their children don't listen to them. But as soon as someone else tells them to "cover their nose", "chew with their mouth closed", "don't run with scissors", whatever, they listen and integrate that guidance into their behavior. What's harder to observe is all the external guidance they get that they don't integrate until their parents tell them. It's internal vs external validation.

Re: DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

#122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh they need control of models to be able to censor and ensure whatever happens inside the country with AI stays under their control. But the open-source part? Idk I think they do it to mess with the US investment and for the typical open source reasons of companies: community, marketing, etc. But tbh especially the messing with the US, as a european with no serious competitor, I can get behind.

This is the rare earth minerals dumping all over again. Devalue to such a price as to make the market participants quit, so they can later have a strategic stranglehold on the supply. This is using open source in a bit of different spirit than the hacker ethos, and I am not sure how I feel about it. It is a kind of cheat on the fair market but at the same time it is also costly to China and its capital costs may beco…

Good luck making OpenAI and Google cry uncle. They have the US government on their side. They will not be allowed to fail, and they know it.

What I appreciate about the Chinese efforts is that they are being forced to get more intelligence from less hardware, and they are not only releasing their work products but documenting the R&D behind them at least as well as our own closed-source companies do.

A good reason to stir up dumping accusations and anti-China bias would be if they stopped publishing not just the open-source models, but the technical papers that go with them. Until that happens, I think it's better to prefer more charitable explanations for their posture.

Re: DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

#123
post #18
post #5

I genuinely do not understand the evaluations of the US AI industry. The chinese models are so close and far cheaper

There is a great deal of orientalism --- it is genuinely unthinkable to a lot of American tech dullards that the Chinese could be better at anything requiring what they think of as "intelligence." Aren't they Communist? Backward? Don't they eat weird stuff at wet markets? It reminds me, in an encouraging way, of the way that German military planners regarded the Soviet Union in the lead-up to Operation Barbarossa. Th…

These Americans have no comprehension of intelligence being used to benefit humanity instead of being used to fund a CEO's new yacht. I encourage them to visit China to see how far the USA lags behind.

Re: DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

and can be faster if you can get an MOE model of that

"Mixture-of-experts", AKA "running several small models and activating only a few at a time". Thanks for introducing me to that concept. Fascinating. (commentary: things are really moving too fast for the layperson to keep up)

As pointed out by a sibling comment. MOE consists of a router and a number of experts (eg 8). These experts can be imagined as parts of the brain with specialization, although in reality they probably don't work exactly like that. These aren't separate models, they are components of a single large model.

Typically, input gets routed to a number of of experts eg. top 2, leaving the others inactive. This reduces number of activation / processing requirements.

Mistral is an example of a model that's designed like this. Clever people created converters to transform dense models to MOE models. These days many popular models are also available in MOE configuration

Re: DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can’t think of a single company I’ve worked with as a consultant that I could convince to use DeepSeek because of its ties with China even if I explained that it was hosted on AWS and none of the information would go to China. Even when the technical people understood that, it would be too much of a political quagmire within their company when it became known to the higher ups. It just isn’t worth the political cap…

[flagged]

on what hypothetical grounds would you be more meaningfully able to sue the american maker of a self-hosted statistical language model that you select your own runtime sampling parameters for after random subtle security vulnerabilities came out the other side when you asked it for very secure code?

put another way, how do you propose to tell this subtle nefarious chinese sabotage you baselessly imply to be commonplace from the very real limitations of this technology in the first place?

Re: DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can’t think of a single company I’ve worked with as a consultant that I could convince to use DeepSeek because of its ties with China even if I explained that it was hosted on AWS and none of the information would go to China. Even when the technical people understood that, it would be too much of a political quagmire within their company when it became known to the higher ups. It just isn’t worth the political cap…

This is the real cause. At the enterprise level, trust outweighs cost. My company hires agencies and consultants who provide the same advice as our internal team; this is not to imply that our internal team is incorrect; rather, there is credibility that if something goes wrong, the decision consequences can be shifted, and there is a reason why companies continue to hire the same four consulting firms. It's trust, w…

I have seen it much more nuanced than that.

2020 - I was a mid level (L5) cloud consultant at AWS with only two years of total AWS experience and that was only at a small startup before then. Yet every customer took my (what in hindsight might not have been the best) advice all of the time without questioning it as long as it met their business goals. Just because I had @amazon.com as my email address.

Late 2023 - I was the subject matter expert in a niche of a niche in AWS that the customer focused on and it was still almost impossible to get someone to listen to a consultant from a shitty third rate consulting company.

2025 - I left the shitty consulting company last year after only a year and now work for one with a much better reputation and I have a better title “staff consultant”. I also play the game and be sure to mention that I’m former “AWS ProServe” when I’m doing introductions. Now people listen to me again.

Re: DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

#127
post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can run at ~20 tokens/second on a 512GB Mac Studio M3 Ultra: https://youtu.be/ufXZI6aqOU8?si=YGowQ3cSzHDpgv4z&t=197 IIRC the 512GB mac studio is about $10k

and can be faster if you can get an MOE model of that

>90% of inference hardware is faster if you run an MOE model.

Re: DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

#128
post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't care if this kills Google and OpenAI. I hope it does, though I'm doubtful because distribution is important. You can't beat "ChatGPT" as a brand in laypeople's minds (unless perhaps you give them a massive "Temu: Shop Like A Billionaire" commercial campaign). Closed source AI is almost by design morphing into an industrial, infrastructure-heavy rocket science that commoners can't keep up with. The companies p…

I can’t think of a single company I’ve worked with as a consultant that I could convince to use DeepSeek because of its ties with China even if I explained that it was hosted on AWS and none of the information would go to China. Even when the technical people understood that, it would be too much of a political quagmire within their company when it became known to the higher ups. It just isn’t worth the political cap…

If the Chinese model becomes better than competitors, these worries will suddenly disappear. Also, there are plenty startups and enterprises that are running fine-tuned versions of different OS models.

Re: DeepSeek-v3.2: Pushing the frontier of open large language models [pdf]

#129
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a great deal of orientalism --- it is genuinely unthinkable to a lot of American tech dullards that the Chinese could be better at anything requiring what they think of as "intelligence." Aren't they Communist? Backward? Don't they eat weird stuff at wet markets? It reminds me, in an encouraging way, of the way that German military planners regarded the Soviet Union in the lead-up to Operation Barbarossa. Th…

> It reminds me, in an encouraging way, of the way that German military planners regarded the Soviet Union in the lead-up to Operation Barbarossa. The Slavs are an obviously inferior race; their Bolshevism dooms them; we have the will to power; we will succeed Though, because Stalin had decimated the red army leadership (including most of the veteran officer who had Russian civil war experience) during the Moscow tri…

> Though, because Stalin had decimated the red army leadership (including most of the veteran officer who had Russian civil war experience) during the Moscow trials purges, the German almost succeeded.

There were many counter revolutionaries among the leadership, even those conducting the purges. Stalin was like "ah fuck we're hella compromised." Many revolutions fail in this step and often end up facing a CIA backed coup. The USSR was under constant siege and attempted infiltration since inception.

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