Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is what makes the innovator's dilemma repeat itself so many times in so many industries. It's not that the incumbent companies don't see the new technology; it's that they're so entrenched in what they know how to do that pivoting to the new technology is basically a Hail Mary no matter how you do it. Do it too early and your shareholders are going to think you're crazy. Do it too late, and you're risking enteri…
car manufacturers can afford to experiment - it's not like they don't have room in the budget. and they did experiment. if you don't know GM's history with electric cars: they were positioned to execute a successful transition about thirty years ago, but they simply chose not to.
Electric vehicle sales are booming in South America – without Tesla
121–130 of 237 posts
Re: Electric vehicle sales are booming in South America – without Tesla
#122Earlier quoted context omitted.
Ford is a bad example because they’ve pretty much abandoned all their non truck and transit van segments for years. Even if EVs weren’t a thing, they do not compete in any of the segments and haven’t for almost a decade. First it was Japanese and German companies eating their lunch, now it’s the Chinese. Also, F150 lightening is such a failure. There was a recent video of it trying to haul very minimal load and it pr…
> Also, F150 lightening is such a failure. There was a recent video of it trying to haul very minimal load and it pretty much drained the battery in less than 100 miles. Was that due to something specific with the Lightning, or was it just due to the intrinsic energy requirements of hauling loads? (Or in other words, does an EV even exist that's notably better at hauling loads?)
But an EV, on a long range road trip you're rarely charging to 100%, you're often going like 5%->80% because the charging speeds fall off a cliff after a certain percentage. So you start off with maybe 300mi, but not really because after the first leg you're only using 75% of it, but now you're also using like 25% more energy because of the massively increased drag. So what was 300mi on a full charge became maybe 150mi on a full charge once you're on that second leg. Coupled with the fact what used to be free energy (heating the cabin with waste engine heat) if you're towing in cold weather you're not even going to get that 150mi.
Re: Electric vehicle sales are booming in South America – without Tesla
#123Earlier quoted context omitted.
I wish I could get a BYD Dolphin hatch for ~10k USD. Somehow my 12 year old Prius is worth 9k on KBB and that's insane.
Dolphins don't sell for $10k outside of China. Dolphins in South/Central America are ~$22k. Even if there weren't tariffs on them I wouldn't expect to see them out the door for less than $25k in the US.
Re: Electric vehicle sales are booming in South America – without Tesla
#124Tariffs might keep Chinese EVs out of the US, but they don't stop US influence from fading everywhere else. South America is voting with their wallets, and 'buy American' doesn't work when the price is double and the tech is the same. Unless the US intends to sanction every country that prioritizes value over US geopolitics, this battle is already lost.
In South America there's also no anxiety over China becoming a superpower, which may be an argument against Chinese products in the US. In fact, China has pretty good relations with most South American countries. Likely better than the US. I wouldn't be surprised if many people view China more favorably.
Re: Electric vehicle sales are booming in South America – without Tesla
#125When I grew up in Germany it always made me proud that 100% of taxis were Mercedes Benz. If a car can withstand the rough demands of taxi service, it has to be good. And even in South America back then German cares were ubiquitous, especially Volkswagen. When I was in Brazil this spring[*] I rode a lot of Uber and they were 100% BYD - 100%, no exception. It's not that my head hadn't known that German auto was dead bu…
Sadly the German car industry has lost its way in the EV transition and is now vainly trying to get the EU to rollback the sun setting of ICE car sales in 3035. Meanwhile the Chinese are eating their lunch.
Re: Electric vehicle sales are booming in South America – without Tesla
#126Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tesla has no moat 1. Batteries - BYD has them beat 2. Self Driving tech - other players are better 3. Luxury brands already provide the luxury aspect & even better built cars 4. in the US they're being saved by US protectionism. in Europe etc - we already see the chinese brands making inroads for EV sales
Protectionism on inputs kills manufacturing. Imagine having to pay 15% more for all inputs and trying to compete with someone who doesn't have pay that.
Internationally, yes if you manufacture the international product in the home country, but AFAIK in auto at least there are usually satellite factories and have been for some time, and those wouldn’t be subject to home country tariffs would they?
Re: Electric vehicle sales are booming in South America – without Tesla
#127Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tesla has no moat 1. Batteries - BYD has them beat 2. Self Driving tech - other players are better 3. Luxury brands already provide the luxury aspect & even better built cars 4. in the US they're being saved by US protectionism. in Europe etc - we already see the chinese brands making inroads for EV sales
I mostly agree on all points, but what self driving tech is better? I've periodically looked at the options, and nothing really seems to compare in North America. Maybe BYD and others have great tech, but stuff like Blue Cruise works hardly anywhere in Canada, and to me, that makes it virtually useless.
I don’t think anyone has better self driving for consumers out atm, but you could argue that’s because other companies are not using their customers as beta testers. I’ve seen demos that may indicate Mobileye has tech that’s just as good if not better. But they don’t release it to end users until it’s fully ready.
I don’t think Tesla has any special sauce, and that when the tech is actually ready for unattended full self driving in a consumer car, other car makers will come out with solutions around the same Tesla. One difference is maaaybe Tesla will be able to update old cars (probably with a hardware update). While I think others will only support it on new cars.
Re: Electric vehicle sales are booming in South America – without Tesla
#128Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think the issue is to create an ICE is a very complicated process requiring lots of specialist knowledge, skills and technologies. An EV is just much simpler, comes down to who has the cheapest batteries. Europe and Japan are great at the former, the latter no chance.
Im sure some of it is personal bias from experience with them but I don't think ICE are as complicated as some people think. 90% of the extra shit on them are unnecessary for it to work but what those things are and what they do and why it broke or failed or how important they are is essentially obfuscated from the general public so they seem like overly complicated magic. The vast majority of cars I see do not fail…
Re: Electric vehicle sales are booming in South America – without Tesla
#129Not just Tesla, all established brands we know are left behind. I never understood Volkswagen's pivot from 'wait and See's to 'were inversing billions' to 'we were too late, abort'. Largest brands n terms of units, completely left behind in an emerging segment that's already dominating it's largest market (China). So many executives in the industry just didn't see the writing on the wall. I don't what GM was thinking…
Re: Electric vehicle sales are booming in South America – without Tesla
#130Earlier quoted context omitted.
Dolphins don't sell for $10k outside of China. Dolphins in South/Central America are ~$22k. Even if there weren't tariffs on them I wouldn't expect to see them out the door for less than $25k in the US.
Why the 120% price difference between China and South America?
Think about this concept. It costs you $1 to make a widget. It costs your competitors $1.25 to make a similar widget. They sell theirs for $5. Do you sell yours for $1.50 or $4.75? Obviously, other things could be in play for the market for widgets, but if you could sell all your widgets for $4.75 wouldn't you do that?
If the cheapest car in the US is about $20k and is a complete POS, why would you sell your better car for $10k when you could still sell it for $22k and still sell just about all the ones you build?