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Waymo robotaxis are now giving rides on freeways in LA, SF and Phoenix

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Re: Waymo robotaxis are now giving rides on freeways in LA, SF and Phoenix

#121
post #51

This is a huge sign of confidence that they think they can do this safely and at scale... Freeways might appear "easy" on the surface, but there are all sorts of long tail edge-cases that make them insanely tricky to do confidently without a driver. This will unlock a lot for them with all of the smaller US cities (where highways are essential) they've announced plans for over the next year or so.

I agree, but it's funny to think that Project Chauffeur (as it was known then) was doing completely driverless freeway circuits in the bay area as far back as 2012! Back when they couldn't do the simplest things with traffic lights. I think anyone back then would be totally shocked that urban and suburban driving launched to the public before freeway driving.

If you understand physics, it's easy. When you double the speed, you quadruple the kinetic energy. So you're definitely going to do slower speeds first, even if it's harder to compute.

Re: Waymo robotaxis are now giving rides on freeways in LA, SF and Phoenix

#122
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, that sounds like NYC nonsense. I assume it's still illegal to drive on the shoulder in New York.

Perhaps. But if you have a taxi or car service driver who's not willing to ever break any traffic laws in New York, you will not arrive at your destination in anything approaching a reasonable amount of time. For example, getting at the back of the line for an exit rather than trying to go to the front and cut your way in could be a multi-hour mistake.

I hope robocars get really good at maintaining close formation and keeping out asshole linecutters.

Re: Waymo robotaxis are now giving rides on freeways in LA, SF and Phoenix

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It must be interesting being an Uber driver right now and literally watching the robots that will replace you driving around with you. This has been a 15+ year process and will probably take a few more years. I don't feel too bad if they didn't manage to pivot in that time period.

"It must be interesting being an Uber driver right now and literally watching the robots that will replace you driving around with you." You mean the way taxi drivers had to watch as Uber and Lyft replaced them?

> You mean the way taxi drivers had to watch as Uber and Lyft replaced them?

For the most part, they were the same drivers I think

Re: Waymo robotaxis are now giving rides on freeways in LA, SF and Phoenix

#124

This is a huge sign of confidence that they think they can do this safely and at scale... Freeways might appear "easy" on the surface, but there are all sorts of long tail edge-cases that make them insanely tricky to do confidently without a driver. This will unlock a lot for them with all of the smaller US cities (where highways are essential) they've announced plans for over the next year or so.

> Freeways might appear "easy" on the surface, but there are all sorts of long tail edge-cases that make them insanely tricky to do confidently without a driver Maybe my memory is failing me, but I seem to remember people saying the exact opposite here on HN when Tesla first announced/showed off their "self-driving but not really self-driving" features, saying it'll be very easy to get working on the highways, but th…

It's easier to get from zero to something that works on divided highways, since there's only lanes, other vehicles, and a few signs to care about. No cross traffic, cyclists, pedestrians, parked cars, etc.

One thing that's hard with highways is the fact that vehicles move faster, so in a tenth of a second at 65 mph, a car has moved 9.5 feet. So if say a big rock fell off a truck onto the highway, to detect it early and proactively brake or change lanes to avoid it, it would need to be detected at quite a long distance, which demands a lot from sensors (eg. how many pixels/LIDAR returns do you get at say 300+ feet on an object that's smaller than a car, and how much do you need to detect it as an obstruction).

But those also happen quite infrequently, so a vehicle that doesn't handle road debris (or deer or rare obstructions) can work with supervision and appear to work autonomously, but one that's fully autonomous can't skip those scenarios.

Re: Waymo robotaxis are now giving rides on freeways in LA, SF and Phoenix

#125
post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Truly curious - have you tried it recently?

I have HW4, and have tried FSD with every major release.

It works brilliantly, 99.5% of the time. The issue is that the failure mode is catastrophic. Like getting confused with the lane marking and driving off the shoulder. And the complete inability to read construction zone signs (blasting through a 50 KM zone at 100 KM).

I'm deeply skeptical that the current sensor suite and hardware is going to have enough compute power to safely drive without supervision.

It will no doubt improve, but until Tesla steps up and assumes liability for any accident, it's just not "full self driving".

Re: Waymo robotaxis are now giving rides on freeways in LA, SF and Phoenix

#126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It must be interesting being an Uber driver right now and literally watching the robots that will replace you driving around with you. This has been a 15+ year process and will probably take a few more years. I don't feel too bad if they didn't manage to pivot in that time period.

"It must be interesting being an Uber driver right now and literally watching the robots that will replace you driving around with you." You mean the way taxi drivers had to watch as Uber and Lyft replaced them?

I imagine most traditional taxi drivers converted into Uber and Lyft drivers. Unique regulatory circumstances in places like NYC might have delayed that process some of course (eg trying to pay off a medallion).

Uber and Lyft drivers are taxi drivers.

Re: Waymo robotaxis are now giving rides on freeways in LA, SF and Phoenix

#127
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, that sounds like NYC nonsense. I assume it's still illegal to drive on the shoulder in New York.

Perhaps. But if you have a taxi or car service driver who's not willing to ever break any traffic laws in New York, you will not arrive at your destination in anything approaching a reasonable amount of time. For example, getting at the back of the line for an exit rather than trying to go to the front and cut your way in could be a multi-hour mistake.

Haha, this is both entirely true and entirely the reason why NYC is pretty much stuck where it is. If cities were parables, NYC would be The Parable of the Tragedy of the Commons. Globally, among cities I've been to it would have to be Delhi, but NYC is certainly in that category of South Asian cities where the infrastructure is far outpaced by the population and the population is like a swarming rat king constantly jockeying for a few inches more.

It's a viral race to the bottom.

Re: Waymo robotaxis are now giving rides on freeways in LA, SF and Phoenix

#128
post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luckily this won't be a problem in Los Angeles, because traffic prevents you from ever going over the speed limit.

It's hilarious to see people in LA buying sports cars. Like even if you're willing to risk a speeding ticket you won't be able to drive faster than the traffic in front of you. Just a status symbol, I guess.

There are many race tracks in LA area.

Re: Waymo robotaxis are now giving rides on freeways in LA, SF and Phoenix

#129
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You clearly haven't been to very many countries if you think American drivers are the worst out there.

I don't need to travel to learn this: https://www.onlinesafetytrainer.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/...

What about non-OECD countries? I'm told those are actually most of the world's population and driving.

Re: Waymo robotaxis are now giving rides on freeways in LA, SF and Phoenix

#130
post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, that sounds like NYC nonsense. I assume it's still illegal to drive on the shoulder in New York.

Perhaps. But if you have a taxi or car service driver who's not willing to ever break any traffic laws in New York, you will not arrive at your destination in anything approaching a reasonable amount of time. For example, getting at the back of the line for an exit rather than trying to go to the front and cut your way in could be a multi-hour mistake.

This is absurd, and it's a**hole behavior you're defending.

You don't need to break any laws to get to where you're going, what are you even talking about? And you think that just because you're in a taxi you should get to magically cut to the front of a line of cars, made of the vast majority of New Yorkers who actually respect each other? What could possibly make you feel so entitled?

And if you think waiting in line for an exit takes multiple hours, I question whether you've ever been to NYC in the first place.

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