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Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

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Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#121
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eliezer’s short story “That Alien Message” providing a convincing argument that humans are cognitively limited, not data-limited, through the device of a fictional world where people think faster: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5wMcKNAwB6X4mp9og/that-alien... > Yes. There is. The theoretical limit is that every time you see 1 additional bit, it cannot be expected to eliminate more than half of the remaining hypothes…

Regarding "Alien Message", I don't find that story particularly convincing. I think it's muddled and contrived. The basic issue is that we have to deduce stuff about the world we live in, using resources from the world we live in. In the story, the data bandwidth is contrived to be insanely smaller than the compute bandwidth, but that's not realistic. In reality, we are surrounded by chaotic physical systems that ope…

You seem to be agreeing with the story's thesis, rather than disagreeing. The story claims that we get an enormous amount of data from which we could compute much more than we do. You, too, are claiming that we get an enormous amount of data from which we could compute much more than we do. If that's true, then we aren't limited by our data, which is what I meant by "data-limited"—although you seem to mean the opposite, "we get data slower than we can analyze and process it", in which we are limited not by the data but by the processing. This tends to rebut the claim above, "If you had AGI tomorrow and asked it to cure cancer, it would just ask for more experimental data and resources."

It may very well be true that you could cure cancer even faster or more cheaply with more experimental data, but that's irrelevant to the claim that more experimental data is necessary.

It may also be the case that there's no "shortcut" to simulating a human body well enough to test drugs against a simulated tumor faster than real time—that is, that you need to have enough memory to track every simulated atom. (The success of AlphaFold suggests that this is not the case, as does the ability of humans to survive things like electric shocks, but let's be conservative.) But a human body only contains on the order of 10²⁴ atoms, so you can just build a computer with 10²⁸ words of memory, and processing power to match. It might be millions of times larger than a human body, but that's okay; there's plenty of mass out there to turn into computronium. It doesn't make it physically unrealizable.

Relatedly, you may be interested in seeing Mr. Rogers confronting the paperclip maximizer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-zJ1spML5c

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#122

AI is a risk. The thing we know is going to bite us in the butt is our continued massive sovereign debt burden and lack of any political will whatsoever to either increase taxes or reduce spending. The dollar is not going to do well this century and creditors confidence is already starting to decline. In fact, the further we go into debt - the more we are implicitly betting our society on an AI hail mary.

> massive sovereign debt burden

Cost to service the debt is about 60% of what it was in the 1980's. All those bonds are long since paid off. This is a meme. Should we adjust to something more sustainable? Yes. Is the "burden" too high to bear? No, it's just not.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they're married and paying 24% federal tax rate on any of their income, they almost certainly aren't paying any social security taxes on their consulting income. That would mean their adjusted gross income is in the $200-400k range for their full-time day job which exceeds the Social Security cap by a good margin, it's $176k. They'd still have to pay for Medicare, but it knocks 12.4% off their estimated taxes for…

Also, FICA cap goes off gross and a 24% rate is based off AGI, just to muddle the numbers even more.

[deleted]

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#124
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You failed reading comprehension.

You think I'm the one who's failing here? You said: "(...) if you had AGI tomorrow and asked it to figure out FTL warp drives, it would just explain to you how it's not going to happen. It is impossible, the end. In fact the request is fantasy, nigh nonsensical and self-contradictory." "Isn’t that what the greatest minds in physics would say as well? Yes, yes it is." That is not in fact what the greatest minds in phy…

You failed to realise that I'm not debating you, I'm berating you. Some people see statements like "not debating" as a personal challenge, a reason to get aggressive. Lets be clear: they are not nice people, and you don't want to be trolls like them.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#125
post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think I'm the one who's failing here? You said: "(...) if you had AGI tomorrow and asked it to figure out FTL warp drives, it would just explain to you how it's not going to happen. It is impossible, the end. In fact the request is fantasy, nigh nonsensical and self-contradictory." "Isn’t that what the greatest minds in physics would say as well? Yes, yes it is." That is not in fact what the greatest minds in phy…

You failed to realise that I'm not debating you, I'm berating you. Some people see statements like "not debating" as a personal challenge, a reason to get aggressive. Lets be clear: they are not nice people, and you don't want to be trolls like them.

Yes, I can see that you're just trolling, not debating. I appreciate the fact that you aren't debating, because I don't want to have to correct more of your misinformation. I don't think your berating is productive either, although it does demonstrate that—as you said—you are not a nice person.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#126
I saw this comment the other day on Reddit, and I think it sums up the current state pretty well.

> Last month my parents decided to invest their extra cash into “AI” by paying a broker to buy “the AI stocks” they keep hearing about on the news.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#127
post #70
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't think of any tech with this kind of crazy yearly investment in infrastructure with no success stories. Maybe it's because I find writing easy, but I find the text generation broadly useless except for scamming. The search capabilities are interesting but the falsehoods that come from LLM questions undermine it. The programming and visual art capabilities are most impressive to me... but where's the companies…

You can easily google "generative AI success stories" and read about them. There are always a few comments that make it seem like LLMs have done nothing valuable despite massive levels of adoption.

I realize this is a cheap shot but

> You can easily google "generative AI success stories" and read about them.

notice you suggested asking Google and not chatgpt.

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#128
post #127
post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can easily google "generative AI success stories" and read about them. There are always a few comments that make it seem like LLMs have done nothing valuable despite massive levels of adoption.

I realize this is a cheap shot but > You can easily google "generative AI success stories" and read about them. notice you suggested asking Google and not chatgpt.

I don't understand why you think this is important to mention.

Search engines are better at certain tasks than others.

If I said should FLY to Spain is it a cheap shot against sailing because I didn't mention it?

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's no longer the early 20th, there are other competitive & well-run jurisdictions for creditors to dump their money in if they lose faith in the US. Where, pray tell are these competitive and well-run jurisdictions? China has capital controls so that probably won't work. The EU might work if they ever get their sh*t together and centralise their bonds and markets, otherwise no. Like, I too believe that the US is…

I think there are many smaller jurisdictions that are getting their shit together and might absorb demand - southeast Asia, Singapore obviously (but small), the Gulf. Some subsets of the EU, particularly Eastern Europe. Plus, even worse-run higher yield jurisdictions become more appealing as the US fails.

It's more about volume than anything else. You or I could invest elsewhere but where do all the foreign holders of Treasuries and US stocks put their money?

Re: Bank of England flags risk of 'sudden correction' in tech stocks inflated by AI

#130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> either increase taxes or reduce spending I see this sentiment a lot, they are not equivalent. The US must reduce spending, if it wants to protect the dollar. Tax increases may also help. The relationship between tax rates, GDP, government revenue, the market value of new US debt, and the value of the dollar, is complicated and depends on uncertain estimates and models of the economy. Increasing taxes can reduce GDP…

> Tax increases may also help. I don't live in a costal state, but when I do consulting work typically at charity rates alongside my standard full-time job, I have to pay 24% federal tax, 15.3% FICA, and 7.85% state tax. I am already taxed whenever I want to help anyone at 47.15% . That's before the required tax structures and consulting for doing all the invoicing legally. God himself only wanted 10%, so it seems a…

>> God himself only wanted 10%

Wanted 10% but offered nothing real in return. At least you get some services from your taxes, like unlawful detention/extradition of suspicious people.

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