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The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

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Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#121

Post by Gigachad »

qsort wrote: post #22
diggan wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I hope I’m wrong I kind of hope you're right. Any "hyped" industry/sector is bound to eventually needing to get back to reality, and focus on things that actually work, rather than spraying and praying prototypes and over-hyping them. The individuals and companies building real products that actually improve something will stick around, either as they are, or at least as ideas, and most of the interesting stuff ten…

> I kind of hope you're right. I couldn't care less if big tech gets knocked down a peg, but in many quarters the AI boom is what's keeping the lights on. A market correction of that magnitude would mean a lot of pain for a lot of normal people, it's not exactly something I'm cheering on...

The AI boom is masking the fact that the rest of the US economy has crumbled. Things can’t even begin to be fixed until people see they aren’t ok.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#122

Post by Tadpole9181 »

bluGill wrote: post #89
peterkap wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500 NVDIA makes up 7.5% of the S&P500. It will not be a minor blip to 401ks if it collapses.

NVDIA has plenty of other business and will not drop to 0. Even if they drop 75%, than is still only a 2-3% (the math on percentages is weird and I don't feel like doing it - and I shouldn't because a 75% drop is just a random number and so I have no significant figures to work with) drop in my 401k. Of course other companies will be hit as well, but still my 401k will not drop and more than any other stock market cr…

That's literally one company being used to make a point. At least 25% of the S&P is composed of highly AI-leveraged companies.

And you're acting like massive market changes don't propagate and won't cause ripple affects across the economy that impact other markets and change the view of financial risk.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#123

Post by infecto »

throw219080123 wrote: post #112
infecto wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I cannot say for your work but for classification steps and data structuring it’s quite accurate and this is with regular testing. I cannot speak for your work but for mine and folks in adjacent industries, LLM are fantastic and adding a lot of value to our workflows. You’re honestly holding on to this dead idea that LLM outputs are full of hallucinations. Throwaway account with throwaway comment.

It's "quite accurate" which is not acceptable for almost all relevant tasks is a business context. Somebody needs to manually check everything. Almost no time is saved. Talking as someone who has built many small OpenAI integrations aka wrappers in business apps.

So I know you are trolling but let’s be real. Why would I share my business measurements with you on here? Of course my experience is an an anecdote and of course the measurements I use to determine accuracy are more in depth than “quite accurate”. What I can say is for structure we beat humans on accuracy and do it extremely quick. That LLM system runs at a lower cost than some of our more traditional system.

If all you have done is built wrappers I see you have bare scratches the engineering surface so that explains it.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#124

Post by bluGill »

Tadpole9181 wrote: post #122
bluGill wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NVDIA has plenty of other business and will not drop to 0. Even if they drop 75%, than is still only a 2-3% (the math on percentages is weird and I don't feel like doing it - and I shouldn't because a 75% drop is just a random number and so I have no significant figures to work with) drop in my 401k. Of course other companies will be hit as well, but still my 401k will not drop and more than any other stock market cr…

That's literally one company being used to make a point. At least 25% of the S&P is composed of highly AI-leveraged companies. And you're acting like massive market changes don't propagate and won't cause ripple affects across the economy that impact other markets and change the view of financial risk.

Most companies have non ai business. They will fall but it won't be to zero. Bubbles have poped before, and they have been leveraged too. There will be some bad years - but in 15 years things will have recovered and we will be on the next bubble

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#125

Post by Jordan-117 »

fhd2 wrote: post #20
JCM9 wrote: post #4

The current bubble is getting scary. When this thing pops the blast it’s going to be a real mess. The big tech firms will hurt, fire some execs in a show of “making changes,” do a bunch of layoffs across “AI” teams to show the market they’re pivoting and getting costs in order, and move on. The startups ecosystem will suffer extensive and catastrophic damage. The funding ecosystem will be set back years as this wipes…

What about the rest of the economy? Deutsche Bank recently said that the AI hype is the only thing holding the US stock market together. And if that crashes, it tends to ripple world wide. Scary stuff, at least to someone who doesn't know all that much about market resilience. With what little I know, I'm hoping for a soft pop with slow deflation. But big tech seems to just pump harder right now.

Most of the world already seems drifting towards far-right authoritarianism based on "just" run-of-the-mill cost-of-living increases and resentment towards economic elites (and a lot of that is lingering, never-healed fallout from the 2008 crisis). I dread to see what the reaction will be to a genuine global crash right now.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#126

Post by MarcelOlsz »

alephnerd wrote: post #88
MarcelOlsz wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My startup is already dead in the water because I built it in an ADHD-fritz and only did it to spite a YC company, and in that regard I succeeded wildly because they threatened to sue me. Haha! I'm working on much cooler shit right now. Sick own though, checking my profile and all that.

It's not supposed to be a burn. My point is being flippant about a potential market crash under the assumption that you can somehow weather it out is extremely unrealistic unless you are a HNWI.

I'd rather not care than care about some event that is entirely out of reach for me to affect. It just doesn't matter. My grandmother has no idea what a 'market' is. She's doing fine.

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#127

Post by [deleted] »

Jordan-117 wrote: post #125
fhd2 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about the rest of the economy? Deutsche Bank recently said that the AI hype is the only thing holding the US stock market together. And if that crashes, it tends to ripple world wide. Scary stuff, at least to someone who doesn't know all that much about market resilience. With what little I know, I'm hoping for a soft pop with slow deflation. But big tech seems to just pump harder right now.

Most of the world already seems drifting towards far-right authoritarianism based on "just" run-of-the-mill cost-of-living increases and resentment towards economic elites (and a lot of that is lingering, never-healed fallout from the 2008 crisis). I dread to see what the reaction will be to a genuine global crash right now.

[deleted]

Re: The biggest sign of an AI bubble is starting to appear – debt

#128

Post by Incipient »

Gigachad wrote: post #121
qsort wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I kind of hope you're right. I couldn't care less if big tech gets knocked down a peg, but in many quarters the AI boom is what's keeping the lights on. A market correction of that magnitude would mean a lot of pain for a lot of normal people, it's not exactly something I'm cheering on...

The AI boom is masking the fact that the rest of the US economy has crumbled. Things can’t even begin to be fixed until people see they aren’t ok.

Is there actually concrete numbers on this? I was speaking to a friend about this the other day and we both concluded we didn't actually have evidence either way.
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