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Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

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Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#121

Post by ajross »

tim333 wrote: post #117
ajross wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There have been literally (not figuratively literally, literally literally) zero diplomatic resolutions of military conflicts or tensions with Russia during the Putin era. None. The closest one you can see, if you squint extremely hard, is the detente of 8 years that that followed the invasion of Crimea. And then we know what happened. Conflicts in Putin's Russia end militarily, always (usually in victory or stalemat…

Negotiated peace can be a thing if there is enough of a threat behind it. I imagine Putin would like to be able to nuke Ukraine but the US have threatened bad things if he does. I think if the west had made more of a threat before the 2022 invasion Putin may well have backed off but Biden was like if you only invade a little bit we won't do much which is kind of how it went.

> Negotiated peace can be a thing if

"This hasn't worked for 30 years, but this time it will for sure!" makes for pretty awful geopolitical strategy, historically. But you do you.

(Your broader point that Putin's actions are constrained by nuclear deterrents is obviously correct. But it's very clearly not a point about diplomacy!)

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#122

Post by general1465 »

js8 wrote: post #101
bootsmann wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think it's responsibility of the stronger party, here NATO, to seek deescalation. NATO isn't fighting in Ukraine, Ukraine is fighting in Ukraine and Russia is the stronger party in that conflict.

> NATO isn't fighting in Ukraine I think this view is delusional. NATO countries are supplying Ukraine with weapons, it's pretty conventional to consider this as being a party to the war. The only reason we don't say it openly is that elites want to maintain pretense that we are not in a war (that's unpopular in Europe and US) and that NATO is defense-only organization.

So USA was fighting USSR by supplying weapons to Afghanistan?

USSR was fighting USA by supplying weapons to Korea and Vietnam?

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#124

Post by Yizahi »

js8 wrote: post #17

I am not sure what European "leaders" expected. Many of them support Ukraine militarily in the war, so yes, EU is in fact in war with Russia, through Ukraine as a proxy. I oppose the military support to Ukraine. I think it's responsibility of the stronger party, here NATO, to seek deescalation. I also disapprove that the military support for Ukraine was decided undemocratically, without any consideration whether this…

I sincerely hope one day military support will be denied to you, wherever you live. What a brainwashed cabbage... "escalate into a war"(c) - this is a blatant 100% lie, with no ifs or buts, just a plain lie. There was zero military aid to Ukraine before the invasion.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#125

Post by af78 »

js8 wrote: post #112
AndrewDucker wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

NATO has not expanded into Russia. Russia has expanded into Ukraine. People join NATO in self-defence against Russia. They wouldn't have to if Russia didn't keep attacking its neighbours.

> NATO has not expanded into Russia. Russia has expanded into Ukraine. Morally you're correct, but on a practical level, Russia didn't want the NATO to be in Ukraine. Morality (or international law) doesn't always win - look at the Cuban missile crisis. > People join NATO in self-defence against Russia. Yes, the motivation of the joining countries is clear. What is less clear (and you should question), why they shoul…

Ukraine was left out of NATO. When Russia first invaded in 2014, European leaders looked the other way. Claims that there plans for Ukraine to join NATO and that Russia felt threatened and was forced to attack are just lies to attempt to justify this war.

At the time fictions like "Russian-backed separatists" were made up to deny the reality: that it was a foreign invasion. Yet all the signs were there: for example, "separatist" leaders like Igor Girkin were citizens of Russia, not Ukraine; OSCE observers found military vehicles containing documentation indicating that the equipment had been maintained in Russia.

European leaders called for "deescalation", "political resolution"; seeing weakness and appeasement in the Minsk agreements, Putin escalated. That's the problem with aggressive leaders like Putin: if you look weak and vulnerable, they will attack you.

Russian leaders see Russia as an empire and regularly say Eurasia should extend from Lisbon to Vladivistok. Putin tries to terrorize us, stating that if we resist it will lead to "World War III" or "nuclear apocalypse". We must not fall for this, or we will gradually lose our freedoms.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#126

Post by MattPalmer1086 »

adastra22 wrote: post #83
MattPalmer1086 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's very likely that some of it doesn't work. Maybe even a lot. But I would not care to test how much in a war!

So you will do anything, trade away everything, and capitulate at the slighted provocation to avoid the faintest possibility of war? If not, where do you draw the line? Because this isn’t the first time this has been analyzed, and the math is clear: the only winning strategy with terrorists not negotiate under any circumstances. You call their bluff, and you make known that you will always call their bluff in the fut…

No, I certainly would not. You make a lot of assumptions.

However, the idea that a conventional force would obliterate the capital of a nuclear armed power without escalating into full-on nuclear war seems unlikely to me.

I live in a nuclear armed country too.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#127

Post by MattPalmer1086 »

docdeek wrote: post #97
adastra22 wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It takes a lot more than one nuke that works. They would need hundreds of strikes, probably thousands to ensure they aren’t immediately annihilated in response. There is a game theory to nuclear warfare, and dropping one city buster on a nuclear armed adversary is the sovereign equivalent of suicide-by-cop.

If this is the case, do France and the UK even have a nuclear deterrent? They have just over 500 weapons total between them - is there any chance that they are able to “ensure that they aren’t immediately anihalated” by a Russian response?

Probably not. But we do not have a first strike doctrine. There is enough to ensure that attacking us would be a very, very bad idea.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#128

Post by Yizahi »

js8 wrote: post #100
af78 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia is the aggressor in this war; if it stopped its aggression and withdrew from Ukraine, the war would stop. So the responsibility for deescalating falls squarely on Russia. Russia has no intention to stop; on the contrary it is ramping up the production of military equipment. As only military means can stop a military aggression, it makes every sense for European leaders to support Ukraine militarily. If anythin…

Which war? Yes, between Russia and Ukraine, Russia is the aggressor, and bigger. Between NATO and Russia, NATO is the aggressor (from Russian perspective) and bigger. Russia started the war in Ukraine to stop the NATO expansion. It's against the international law, but this intent was made pretty clear also in Georgia. EU and NATO then reacted with more NATO expansion, and supporting Ukraine militarily. They didn't of…

"Russia started the war in Ukraine to stop the NATO expansion."(c) - tell me now, exactly which NATO expansion has happened before the invasion of Ukraine, to trigger the war? You are lying, that's what it is.

PS: to anyone else reading this, the last NATO expansion in the Russian direction has happened 10 years before the invasion, when Putin was hugging western leaders and not bothered at all by the "scary NATO". This user is posting a retcon propaganda by a Kremlin. A lie.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#129

Post by tankenmate »

chvid wrote: post #70
askonomm wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a joke, right? Diplomacy is something Russians completely disregard, lie about, and only agree to do when they are the only one benefiting, and even then only until they decide to break whatever agreements were made, because they've done so every single time so far. How do you have any diplomacy with someone like that? You can't.

Right now the US under Trump is leading the diplomatic efforts toward Russia. I think Europe and the Ukraine would have been better served with European leaders doing this.

Russia doesn't want to be involved in diplomatic efforts with Europe, it doesn't suit their purposes. With the US however it can drive a wedge, so "diplomacy" it is.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#130

Post by tpm »

tobias3 wrote: post #111
CamelCaseName wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except they can't. Europe is struggling with soaring energy costs and a lack of alternatives. Whether it's red tape or unfortunate geography, Europe cannot afford to turn off the Russian gas tap. A benevolent US would see this and find ways to bridge the gap for Europe and lower its energy costs, further choking Russia. A less benevolent US would see this and encourage it to continue, weakening both parties and sowin…

We already turned off the tap (look at the link above). It is just unimportant countries like Hungary and Slovakia that still import pipeline gas (and they're not making any friends...) . Would be great to pressure them more. Till this year Ukraine still imported nat gas from Russia btw. LNG is a fungible commodity that is traded world-wide. Don't see much beyond symbolic value here in refusing it. Trying to enforce…

Hello from Slovakia. The gas pipeline from Russia through Ukraine into Slovakia (and further west/south) does not work since January 2025, it was turned off by Ukraine. If there is still gas flowing from Russia, it's through other pipelines, most likely Turkstream, and that too will end in time: https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgaria-end-russian-gas-flo...

We, as far as I know, also sadly import oil from Russia. I expect that to end soon too, because of a combination of political pressure and Ukrainian attacks.

Our current government is pretty close to Putin and Orban and it would be very welcome if the rest of EU attacked this issue more, as you mention.

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